976
FXUS65 KPIH 260520
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1020 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend develops Monday, continuing through next
  Saturday, with little precipitation in sight, sticking to
  mountain and highland areas.

- Rebuilding ridge of high pressure may provide renewed bouts of
  low clouds and fog at times this coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Satellite imagery shows weak shortwave that dropped pockets of
light snow across East Idaho overnight and early this morning
has shifted east of the region. Some mid cloud still exists
mainly over higher elevations east of I-15 early this afternoon,
but the trend is toward slow dissipation through the rest of
today. There is not a lot of low level moisture to work with,
and model soundings support clear skies for tonight. Model
probabilities are low confidence with less than a 20% chance of
stratus and fog development overnight, so cautiously kept out of
forecast grids. Sometimes persistence pays off, but the gamble
to maintain a clear forecast looks like the best bet tonight.
That said, localized impacts are still possible, just difficult
to pinpoint where and to what extent. Next shortwave feature
crosses East Idaho Monday and Monday night. Soundings at this
time support just an increase in mid and high cloud cover, and
there should be enough of it to prevent stratus formation in the
lower elevations. There is not enough moisture or dynamics
associated with this feature to produce any precipitation. Have
slightly adjusted temperatures downward again in the Stanley
Basin for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Upper ridge briefly rebuilds for Tuesday, but another quick
shortwave shifts through on Wednesday. The NBM has been waffling
back and forth about the potential for very light precipitation
across some higher elevation areas. Confidence remains extremely
low, and the latest NBM is only depicting extremely light PoPs
in some portions of the central mountains. The GFS depicts a
repeat on Thursday, with stronger potential for the ridge to
flatten for potentially better chances at moisture for the
weekend. Meanwhile, the ECMWF strengthens the ridge into the
weekend. In general, the expectation is for dry conditions
throughout the week with a warming trend. On days where the
ridge axis manages to move overhead, we could see the potential
for low stratus and patchy fog, and that could have some impact
on temperatures for any particular day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

Weak high pressure and northwest flow aloft will dominate over the
next 24 to 48 hours, supporting few to no impacts to aviation across
southeast Idaho under mostly clear skies and light winds. Current
trends in surface obs and forecast temp/dew point depressions
continue to lean too dry to support fog or low stratus tonight and
Monday morning, although some localized mid-level stratus has
managed to develop northwest of KDIJ and intrude into the terminal.
No guidance models this, and the back edge of it seems to be moving
around, so have covered this with a 4-hour TEMPO only. A very weak
shortwave/ripple in the height flow will support some high-level
clouds Monday afternoon into Monday night with no precipitation or
significant winds currently expected.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...01