317
FXUS65 KPIH 021001
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
401 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storm possible Thursday in the central Mountains

- Temperatures warm up today into Friday

- Showers, storms and much colder temperatures heading into the
  weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 104 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Southwest flow continues across the region today. We`ll see warm and
mostly dry conditions across much of south and east Idaho today. The
central mountains will see a few passing showers as moisture works
northward through southwest Idaho. Rainfall amounts today will be
0.10 inches or less. Temperatures today will range from the mid 70s
across many south and east Idaho communities to 60s for communities
in the central mountains.

Tonight, a low pressure system will strengthen across the northern
Great Basin. This will send a band of showers and embedded
thunderstorms northward through southwest Idaho into the central
mountains. Rainfall could be heavy at times with at least 0.50
inches of rain likely from Galena Summit northward by 12z Friday. A
flash flood watch is in effect for the Wapiti Burn Scar near Stanley
where debris flows are possible. Meanwhile, most of east Idaho will
remain mostly dry as we await the low to move east.

As we move into Friday, the low will be slowly moving east and the
band of heavy rainfall will have moved north. Still an additional
0.25 to 0.50 inches is likely in the area north of Galena Summit.
Across east Idaho, we`ll see rain chances gradually increase during
the afternoon. Although rainfall amounts Friday still look light for
southern and eastern Idaho with 0.10 inches or less from 12z Friday
to 00z Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will range from around 70 for
eastern Idaho communities to low to mid 60s for communities in the
central mountains and eastern Magic Valley.

Friday Night, we will have the best chance for rainfall in the short
term as the low moves overhead. We will most likely see rainfall
amounts range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches. However there is a 10%
chance of only a few hundredths and a 10% chance of around 0.50
inches. Potentially, we could see our first high elevation snow
Friday Night with an inch or two possible above 9000 feet across the
central mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Much more widespread precipitation is expected throughout the
area into Saturday as the upper level trough moves closer to
the region with Saturday looking like the wettest day of the
period. Still a bit of uncertainty on the exact track the low
takes and the QPF forecast remains a bit tricky. Nevertheless,
expect MUCH colder temperatures for the weekend throughout all
of eastern Idaho. Saturday will be a different story through
with widespread clouds and precip and the upper low dropping H5
heights significantly. Daytime highs will be in the 40s and 50s
for the weekend with Saturday looking like a rather raw day
across eastern Idaho. The good news is that as this feature
departs at the start of the work week, things look to dry out
with a slow warmup expected as we get into next week. Temps will
likely stay on the cooler side of normal, just barely, which is
still generally pleasant for most.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Main concerns today involve SUN TAF. Scattered showers
will be around there most of the day and there could be some
thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening before the
main band of showers and thunderstorms surges northward.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 AM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Scattered showers are likely today across the
central mountains with up to 0.10 inches possible. Weather looks
mainly dry elsewhere. A few gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible
today, mainly on upper slopes and ridges. Rainfall will become more
widespread tonight into Friday across the central mountains with
0.50 to 1.00 inches possible in zone 422 and 0.10 to 0.25 inches
possible for the central Idaho zones. Rain chances slowly spread
east on Friday, with light accumulations likely for east Idaho on
Friday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13