955
FXUS65 KPIH 121737
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1137 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering snow showers in eastern highlands. Additional
  accumulation less than an inch.

- Cold today with well below normal temperatures. Dry Monday
  with significant warming with showers returning Monday night
  into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Today will be very cold as upper level trof continues to push
east with northwesterly cold flow in place today. High
temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal with upper 30s to
mid 40s mountains and upper 40s to lower 50s valleys. Will see
rain and snow showers in the central mountains and eastern
highlands but very light amounts expected. Will remain breezy
this morning with 20 to 30 mph gusts in the Snake River Plain
but should die down through the afternoon and evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft returns quickly tonight and Monday and
will see significant warming with mainly dry conditions Monday.
Highs will be back into the 40s and 50s mountains and lower to
mid 60s valleys. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and 30s. Expect
rain showers to return Tuesday night as a weak wave pushes
north from the southerly flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025

We get a very short break Monday before more
precipitation arrives in eastern Idaho.  Split flow is still the MO
with the low dropping into California Tuesday. This keeps us in
warmer southerly flow ahead of that actual low crossing the state.
We will see afternoon temperatures returning into the 60s for
several folks by Tuesday. The higher end of the temperature range
Tuesday puts our typical warmer spots, especially with downslope
enhancing things, pushing 65-70. That is short lived as we see the
low swinging northeast across the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.
Two things are certain at the moment: we will see more rain and
snow, and it will get colder again. How cold and the track of the
low are NOT that certain at the moment. The GFS swings the storm
through a bit quicker vs the ECMWF. The GFS also tracks the low over
Utah and Wyoming more than the ECMWF, which brings it right over the
state. The GFS would actually pull in some slightly colder air vs
the ECMWF initially, and that is reflected in the Blend of Models in
terms of temperatures and snow levels Wednesday and Thursday. The
official Blend forecast for temperatures for Wednesday has low to
mid 50s, and mid 40s to around 50 Thursday. The colder end of
ranges has mid to upper 40s and low to mid 40s on those respective
days. Snow levels at night on the low end of ranges drops to within
500 of the lowest valley floors if not down to them. Meanwhile, the
official snow level forecast is 1000-1500ft HIGHER. Looking at some
VERY EARLY numbers for Wednesday and Thursday, the potential for
over 0.50" of moisture across lower elevations is 15-35% (outside of
locations east of I-15). For highest elevations across the
Sawtooths, eastern and southeast highlands...the chance for seeing
more than 1" sits at 25-35%.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

We are seeing some fluctuation between VFR to IFR today due
lingering showers and lower ceilings overall due to some areas
getting precipitation over the weekend. We also still see
pockets of gusts of 20-30kts that will last until early evening.
While there is some hint we lose most of the current low and mid
level cloud cover, we are afraid to lose that entirely. The
concern is that low level moisture isn`t being handled properly.
Therefore we maintained some low cloud cover (flirting with
MVFR/IFR thresholds in terms of AMOUNT of cloud cover overnight
and Monday morning. Probability forecasts are almost nothing,
which isn`t instilling confidence our forecast is a big step in
the right direction. That said, we will stick with the idea of
some amount of low cloudiness. BYI would be the overall
exception due to persistent easterly/downplain wind. Some
semblance of lighter winds or potential upslope conditions is
there, including SUN. Speaking of SUN, this pattern doesn`t
look very conducive to a full blown switch to a typical
northerly wind overnight. They likely go variable or stay
southerly with an increase in speed later Monday. This would be
conducive to keep lower clouds in place especially with any
stratus that hangs around south of Hailey and into the Magic
Valley.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Very cold today with some rain and snow showers in zones 411,
475, 476 and 422 but minimal amounts. Will see mainly dry
conditions overnight and Monday as flow aloft turns southerly
again with significant warming with high temperatures 10 to 15
degrees warmer Monday than today. Rain showers will return
Monday night with more significant precipitation on Wednesday
and Thursday with snow levels in the 7 to 8 thousand foot range.
But will have widespread wetting rains once again everywhere
and will see significant cooling again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...GK