068
FXUS65 KPIH 160731
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
131 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered heat of the day storms will continue
  into Monday afternoon.

- Early-Week Passing Trough: A shortwave tracking north of the
  region Monday Night into Tuesday will bring 30%50%
  precipitation coverage to the Central Mountains, Montana
  Divide, and Eastern Highlands.

- Late-Week Heat Surge: Strong Great Basin high-pressure
  ridging will rebuild mid-to-late week, restoring a dry, late-
  summer regime with valley highs returning to the 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Upper level ridge builds into the area today which will remove
the trigger for organized thunderstorms this afternoon. However,
deep monsoonal moisture remains in place today. Expect isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to develop mainly across the
mountains and highlands this afternoon. The high res models are
picking up on this as well. Some gusty winds and brief heavy
downpours will remain possible with these storms. Most of this
activity should diminish this evening with the loss of the
afternoon heating. But, we will likely see a repeat performance
for Monday.

A shortwave trough will move over the top of the ridge through
Montana Monday night into Tuesday. Models are showing that this
trough may help to enhance shower and thunderstorm chance during
that time.

The upper level flow switches to northwesterly with the ridge
amplifying just to our west. This may help dry us out and reduce the
thunderstorm chances for the second half of the week.

Temperatures will begin to warm up. Still slightly below normal for
the first half of the week, but then increasing to slightly above
normal for the second half of the week as the ridge amplifies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Main issues deal with isolated to scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon. PROB30s seem the best way to handle this convection
for most of the TAF sites once again. Confidence is slightly
lower around SUN based on high res models, but not enough to
remove from TAF at this point.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Isoalted to scattered thunderstorms will persist into midweek
with monsoon moisture remaining in place. Gusty outflow winds
and brief heavy downpours are possible near storms.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13