821
FXUS65 KPIH 072315
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
514 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures today give way to warming trend into late
  week.

- Breezy to windy conditions on Thursday and Friday.

- Precipitation chances return over the weekend, mainly across
  our northern mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Satellite and radar imagery show main circulation associated
with PacNW trough has shifted northeast of the region, leaving
dry slot and post-frontal air mass in place over East Idaho.
Breezy winds continue through the Snake Plain with gusts 30-35
mph across the northern portions of the region. Winds should
peak by early afternoon, then decrease through the remainder of
the evening. Cool temperatures today behind the front give way
to gradual warming beginning Tuesday and continuing through
Thursday along with dry conditions. Ensembles favor spoke of
broad trough dropping through the PacNW into the region by
Friday, reintroducing a chance of precipitation by the weekend.
Winds increase Thursday through Saturday in response, and winds
could approach Wind Advisory criteria with gusts exceeding 40
mph for both Thursday and Friday. There is slight differences in
timing of precipitation arrival between the NBM and the
ensemble means and clusters, but we could see a few showers and
thunderstorms by late Friday, increasing into Saturday. The
increase in moisture should provide a slight cooling trend into
the weekend, as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 514 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mostly clear skies forecast throughout the period and VFR
conditions.  Wind will reduce all locations as sunset nears with
light and variable conditions overnight except usual drainage wind
at KSUN. Tuesday VFR condtions continue with afternoon breezy
conditions generally under 15kt all locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Winds will remain elevated today as the trough continues lifting
through Idaho and the center of low pressure shifts northeastward
into Canada. Daytime temperatures today will be much cooler behind
the cold front, with highs maxing out in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Flow aloft will remain westerly through late week with an area of
high pressure to our south and troughing to our north. Conditions
will remain dry and trend warmer under clear skies through at least
Thursday. Daytime highs will return to the 70s and 80s by Wednesday
or Thursday, after which temperatures cool again with highs in the
60s to 70s possible again early next week. Winds will increase again
Thursday through Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens. During
the weekend timeframe, a Pacific low will work eastward to our
north, with models showing the track of the low bringing
precipitation chances to our northern mountains. Prior to this
increase in moisture, we could observe areas of critical fire
weather conditions across south-central Idaho where areas of
relative humidity ranging 10 to 15 percent may overlap with wind
gusts over 30 mph.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...Preston
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp