984
FXUS65 KPIH 302017
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
117 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will steadily climb through the weekend, with
  many afternoon highs reaching the 40s and lower 50s by Sunday.

- After a brief relative cooldown Monday and Tuesday, the dry
  and warming trend returns through the end of the week.

- Stagnant air mass will remain in place through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 117 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Weak shortwave moving through the region today may be enough to
produce very light snows across the Island Park region this
afternoon. Accumulations associated with this will be less than
an inch. Elsewhere, progression of the mid and upper cloud deck
across the region should be able to inhibit most stratus/fog
development across the region. That said, there is still some
potential to see patchy fog much like early this morning, and
have left that blanketed across the region tonight. Moving into
the beginning of the weekend, the upper ridge rebounds slightly,
allowing lower elevation temperatures to continue to nudge
upwards. Afternoon highs should reach 40 for a significant
portion of the Snake Plain and lower elevation areas south of
the Snake River. The probability of exceeding 50 tomorrow is
greatest in the Raft River region and most of the Eastern Magic
Valley. Another repeat of low clouds and fog may be possible
Saturday night, but model soundings are significantly drier than
prior mornings. Thus confidence is low, with the exception of
the Cache Valley where area web cams show that the fog thinned
late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Dry forecast continues through the week as broad scale ridge
remains in place across the Western U.S. Temperatures for Sunday
increase another 2-4 degrees. A pair of weak and dry shortwaves
briefly flatten the ridge for Monday and Tuesday, but moisture
associated with these features appears to remain too far north
to impact East Idaho. The warming trend stalls temporarily for
both Monday and Tuesday in response to these features, then
returns through the remainder of the week. By the end of the
week, model probabilities suggest the chance for daytime highs
exceeding 50 degrees is greater than 65% for almost the entirety
of the Snake Plain and surrounding valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1024 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

High pressure remains over Eastern Idaho today. Generally, our TAF
sites continue to see VFR conditions this morning and will do so
into the afternoon with SCT to BKN mid and upper level clouds. At
DIJ, CIGs are just barely down to MVFR conditions, OVC028. This will
persist for the next hour or two before improvement is expected to
VFR conditions this afternoon. While we may see a few flurries out
of these clouds around DIJ, PoPs are only around 10 percent at best,
so have taken VCSH out of the TAF. The NBM shows about a 30 percent
chance of MVFR CIGs returning to DIJ around 05-06Z tonight, so have
gone with borderline VFR/MVFR CIGs there with OVC035 at 06Z.

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 117 PM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Ridge of high pressure rebuilds for the weekend, strengthening
surface based inversions and increasing the potential for
pollutant trapping. A pair of weak shortwaves may be enough to
temporarily break down inversions Monday and Tuesday, but the
ridge redevelops for the latter half of the week, and stagnant
conditions are likely to return.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Stagnation Advisory until noon MST Monday for IDZ054-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...AMM
AIR QUALITY...DMH