009
FXUS65 KPIH 150843
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
243 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night. Satellite and radar
imagery shows multiple regions of weak convection over East Idaho
early this morning. First is over the central mountains along
shortwave axis. Second lies slightly further east over the eastern
Upper Snake/Island Park region, and lastly another over the
southeast corner/Bear Lake region with both of these better
aligned with the surface cold front. The nested NAM appears to
have the best handle on the current convection, thus relied
heavily on forecast for the remainder of tonight. Shortwave axis
should shift through the state by/around Noon, so the threat of
convection associated with this feature should be short-lived.
That leaves the wind as the next impact of concern. Surface
gradient ramps up significantly through the day, with good mixing
potential for stronger mid level winds. NAM shows peak 700mb winds
approaching 50kts late this afternoon. Models favor the Mud
Lake/Arco Desert/INL zone for the strongest winds, which is where
the High Wind Warning remains painted. Surrounding zones north and
east in line for Wind Advisory level winds. Confidence is high as
even the lower 25th percentile (3 in 4 chance of exceedance
supports these headlines). Pushing up toward the 90th percentile
(1 in 10 chance of exceedance) supports holding off on upgrading
these headlines, though the best chance would be for the Idaho
Falls/Rexburg zone mainly WEST and NORTH of Idaho Falls, and north
into Clark county. Winds should subside with sunset at least out
of headline territory, but should remain breezy for a chunk of the
night, rebounding again during the day Sunday, remaining below
headline thresholds. Temperatures should be some 10-15 degrees
cooler today, and another 5 degrees or so cooler for Sunday. DMH


.LONG TERM...Mon through Fri night. Mon through Tue night continue
to forecast wet and cold conditions with an upper level low nearly
stationary overhead. Weak troughing continues on Wed as a transition
day. Positive height anomalies develop for Thu and Fri, but the
clusters have a wide disparity in solutions. It appears as though
this should be a dry period with temperatures warming to above
normal for highs. Meanwhile, lows on Mon night and Tue night will
likely need frost advisories as temperatures bottom out in the
middle 30s across much of the low elevations in the Snake River
plain.

Wind increases to windy to possibly very windy and requiring Wind
Advisories again on Mon. This looks to be the last day of windy
conditions as the upper level gradients turn much weaker. Messick


&&

.AVIATION...A cold front passing through in the late night hours
last night will bring very strong wind, but fortunately it is west
and southwest and should not be a cross-wind hazard. Clouds will
return tonight as another wave from an upper low anchored over Puget
Sound moves through tonight and Sun morning. May see some light
showers over the northeast corner by late afternoon, then spreading
southward during the overnight hours. Do not expect any impact on
CIG, VSBY, or any TS hazard. Messick


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A cold front will trigger some showers this morning,
and partial clearing during the afternoon will end most of the
shower activity. Very strong winds behind the front will start in
the morning and last all day today. Breezy to windy conditions
continue on Sunday. The air mass settling in is cold and
temperatures will drop to below normal today, then well below normal
for highs on Mon. This should keep humidity from getting very low.
Showers will be limited on Sun as well. Messick



&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect for the Teton River at Driggs
through Saturday and the Snake River at Heise until further notice.
The latter has seen a slight drop in river levels due to reduced
releases upstream so it`s possible that river levels drop a bit more
over the days ahead. Given the uncertainty though, will continue the
flood warning for now and will consult with local emergency managers
over the days ahead. McKaughan


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ052.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for IDZ053-054-067-068.

&&

$$