774
FXUS65 KPIH 260804
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
104 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Occasional mainly mountain rain and snow showers throughout
  most of the week

- Extremely mild temperatures through Friday

- Significantly colder temperatures over the weekend through
  early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 103 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

We are looking at one or more rounds of light rain and snow
through Thanksgiving. As with the past couple of days, the bulk
of this falls in the central mountains and eastern highlands.
For 48 hour amounts, look for most areas to see MAYBE a tenth in
higher elevations. A lot of people will not see even a sprinkle
or flurry falling. Up to 0.20" COULD fall in the highest
elevations of the central mountains (Sawtooths and Lost River
Range), as well as along the Wyoming border and around Sawtelle
Peak/Targhee Pass. There is a 20-60% chance of exceeding that
for those locations, and MAYBE a 10-20% chance of eeking out
over 0.40"...but those numbers seem way overdone based on the
type of pattern setting up. Temperatures will be warmer than
average, with warmer temperatures tomorrow...topping out in the
upper 40s through mid 50s for lower elevations. That puts us
10-15 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE for our official climate sites.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

Things start to change on Friday as upper level troughing digs
into the area bringing some much colder air to the area for the
weekend and into early next week. Friday temps will run around
seasonal norms but things take a downward turn starting on
Saturday. Models still having some disagreements on the depth
and intrusion of the cold air and a large spread amongst various
ensembles still remains. As such, still seeing a rather large
spread within the NBM itself although things are slowly trending
warmer over the last few runs. That being said, it will still
be MUCH colder than what we`ve seen for much of the month of
November with highs likely staying mostly in the 30s for much of
eastern Idaho. Depending on how things play out with the
models, these numbers could get nudged up or down over the days
ahead given the continued uncertainty. On the precip front,
things look to be trending a bit drier with this push of colder
air as well. Nevertheless, still have at least some mention of
PoPs for most of the region Saturday and Sunday with the better
chances focused across the higher terrain in the eastern Not much has changed much in the extended portion of the compared to
yesterday. Thanksgiving Day looks to be a rather mild day for
eastern Idaho with temps expected to top out in the upper 40s to mid
50s for most locales. Slightly cooler of course in the higher
elevations and around Island Park but still unusually mild for late
November. highlands but still not looking like any high impact
snowfall at the present time. Again, this can still change this
far out and some light snow at the valley floors is still
possible over the weekend. Should have a bit more clarity on
this by the time we get closer to Thanksgiving Day and some
higher resolution model data becomes available. Stay tuned over
the days ahead!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 842 PM MST Tue Nov 25 2025

No major changes to the aviation forecast for the 06Z TAFs. VFR
conditions continue tonight with increasing cloud cover heading to
all terminals through most of Wednesday. Did remove the VCSH at KSUN
for early tonight, but kept it beginning around 10Z, though
confidence there remains low and showers may stay a bit farther
north and west of the terminal, but will watch that tonight. Chance
of showers at KPIH and KIDA is closer to 10-20 percent, so will hold
off on any VCSH or -SN in the TAF for now. That said, would not be
surprised to see a few flurries at KIDA early in the morning. KBYI
is expected to remain dry and the best chance for light snow will be
at KDIJ where MVFR CIGs and VIS are in the forecast starting around
11Z early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...AMM