600
FXUS65 KPIH 272317
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
517 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy afternoon today and Saturday.

- Afternoon highs 4 to 8 degrees above normal through the
  weekend, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal to start the week.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible by mid week next week with
  monsoonal moisture increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Satellite imagery shows a stream of afternoon build ups across the
central mountains and portions of the Upper Snake Plain. There is
still a small chance of seeing an isolated shower or thunderstorm
along the Divide this afternoon and early evening, but overall the
rest of East Idaho should remain dry. Breezy conditions continue
mainly across the Upper Snake Plain as well, with gusts 30-40 across
the Arco Desert. Expect winds to die down around sunset. Dry
conditions are forecast Saturday, but afternoon winds look to be
gusty once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Upper ridge will be in place by Sunday. Winds look to be diminished
under the influence of the high pressure. Temperatures look similar
to today and Saturday, perhaps a degree or two warmer. Afternoon
highs start to rise Monday as the ridge shifts slightly east,
reaching into the upper 80s/lower 90s for many valley locations.
With high pressure strengthening over the 4-corners region, and
approaching Pacific trough, moisture shifts north through the
intermountain west by Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon Tuesday through the end of
the forecast period. Tuesday also looks to be the warmest day of the
period, with lower elevations temps into the 90s for most areas.
Overnight temperatures remain mostly in the 50s so ample recovery is
anticipated and thus do not anticipate heat-related headlines at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

VFR and dry conditions forecast throughout the period. Light and
variable winds tonight will increase again Saturday afternoon with
gusts ranging 20 to 30 kts at all terminals. Mid and high clouds
will generally remain FEW to SCT, with skies becoming clear
Saturday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Hot and dry conditions will continue across eastern Idaho to finish
out the month of June under the increasing influence of high
pressure. A 10-20% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms will
remain possible along the Idaho-Montana border region this afternoon
and evening with better chances further northeast up into Montana.
As a series of shortwave troughs work east through Montana today and
Saturday, breezy winds will continue, peaking each afternoon with
gusts to 25-45 mph. Coupled with low afternoon RHs in the teens/20s,
this will lead to elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will
lessen on Sunday, with gusts peaking around 15-30 mph.

Looking ahead towards next week, a ridge axis of high pressure
shifting overhead for Monday and Tuesday will lead to the warmest
temperatures we have seen so far this year as very dry conditions
persist. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s to
upper 90s in the valleys, about 10-15 degrees above normal for this
time of year. As a 500 mb low moves inland into California midweek
next week and taps into monsoon moisture surrounding a Four Corners
High, daily shower and thunderstorm chances will return starting
Tuesday, peaking in coverage each afternoon and evening.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay