201
FXUS65 KPIH 110254
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
854 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued warm today with daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above
  normal.

- Precipitation and colder temperatures return this weekend and
  into early next week!

- 1-3" snowfall anticipated above 6500 ft including passes
  Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The work week is ending with seasonably warm temperatures which could
be the last we see of temperatures in the 70s for quite awhile as a
more active, fall-like pattern looks to take hold over the region.
Southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching area of low
pressure that will bring rain/snow and cooler temperatures to the
area beginning tomorrow and continuing into the day Sunday.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows gradually increasing clouds across
eastern Idaho and these will continue to increase in coverage
throughout the evening and into the weekend ahead. Hi-res CAMs show
the potential for some showers/storms later this evening and
overnight, basically anywhere, but with greater likelihood across
the central mountains, along the Montana Divide and into parts of
the Upper Snake highlands and into the Teton Valley. Lower chances
exist across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley but are certainly not
zero. The biggest change in the forecast appears to be for tomorrow
where QPF has really dropped across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley
zones where the CAMs have backed off from the widespread shower
signal and have now shifted the greatest precip generally to the
east of the I-15 corridor and into the eastern highlands. We`ll have
to see if this trend holds on subsequent hi-res model runs later
tonight and overnight. Much colder air will filter into the region
tonight with most areas staying in the 50s tomorrow with 40s and 50s
likely by Sunday. Will see a changeover to snow at some point
Saturday evening across the eastern highlands which will lead to
some minor slushy accumulations, especially above 6500 ft or so
where we could see 1-3 inches of snow. Overnight lows in some of
these areas will likely drop far enough below freezing to create
some potential icy travel around Island Park and up on some of the
mountain passes across the eastern highlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Rain and snow showers will be decreasing as the pattern
reloads to our west early next week. With southerly flow ahead of
the next split flow/closed low setup, we will see more 60s returning
to the forecast. The "driest" day is Monday although a few showers
are still possible. The pattern quickly returns to wet and cool by
the middle and end parts of next week. Looking at potential for
cooler temperatures and the associated issue of snowfall, the colder
end of our Blend of Models has highs barely reach 50 in our typical
warmer spots by the end of next week. That scenario is certainly
possible given a potential track of the closed low is right over
eastern Idaho. The days of with highs of 70+ looked to be numbered
at the moment, at least in the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 852 PM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue on and off
for the next few hours tonight at most of our TAF sites. Look for a
bit of a break in the activity from just after midnight to around 7
AM. The first round of showers begins to lift northward out of Utah
Saturday morning with increasing coverage and intensity as we head
into the afternoon as the cold front sweeps through Eastern Idaho.
VFR conditions are expected through most of the day, with the
potential for MVFR CIGs or VIS when a storm passes directly over a
terminal. It`ll be a bit breezy through the day with gusts of 20 to
25 kts at BYI, PIH, and IDA. As temperatures begin to drop behind
the front, watch for some BR development near DIJ with increasing
potential (a 30 to 40 percent chance) for VIS less than 5SM after 8
PM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Will see showers and isolated thunderstorms today with showers
continuing tonight through Saturday night with wetting rains
especially in southern and eastern areas. Much less in Central
Idaho regions. Will remain mild today with highs in the 60s and
70s. Will turn much colder tonight and Saturday with below
normal temperatures by Sunday. Snow levels will drop to 5500
feet and expect light accumulations above those levels through
the weekend. Will see a chance of showers continuing off and on
through the middle of next week. Much cooler temperatures will
move in Saturday with Sunday the coldest day of the week. Will
see slight warming Monday but overall temperatures near or
slightly below normal through next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...GK