269
FXUS65 KPIH 051751
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1051 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated Mountain Showers: High-resolution REFS guidance
  indicates isolated shower chances across the Central and
  eastern mountains this evening, but the vast majority of
  eastern Idaho will remain dry.

- Building Weekend Ridge: Models remain steadfast on
  establishing an upper-level ridge across the Intermountain
  West Friday through early next week, guaranteeing prolonged
  dry and tranquil conditions.

- Warmer Temperatures By Weekend: Temperatures will run near
  normal through Friday before climbing 7 to 10 degrees above
  seasonal averages Sunday into early next week, pushing lower-
  elevation highs toward 60F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

A weak shortwave will swing through the state today through early
Friday, bringing low-end chances for precipitation across the higher
terrain this evening through Friday morning. Have added PoPs up to
25 percent above 7,500 feet in the central mountains as well as
along the MT Divide during the evening based on REFS guidance.

Daytime temperatures will remain very stable and run within a few
degrees of normal through Friday with widespread highs ranging the
40s. A ridge of high pressure will begin to amplify over the region
Friday behind the departing shortwave, which will keep conditions
dry and mild through late next week. Southerly flow will help warm
temperatures by more than 5 degrees on Sunday and temperatures will
continue to run 5 to 10 degrees above climatological norms through
much of next week, ranging the 50s for much of Southeast Idaho.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1050 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

A weak mid/upper-level shortwave trough will continue to spread
mid and high clouds across the area this afternoon. Any
resultant CIGs will remain VFR. Can`t rule out a few
sprinkles/light showers near KSUN this afternoon and early
evening, and have maintained a VCSH mention, but not
anticipating any impacts from these. Skies will clear from west
to east this evening in wake of the departing shortwave trough.
VFR conditions to persist into tomorrow as high pressure builds
in from the west, with SKC perhaps giving way to a few high
clouds. Low probabilities exist for patchy fog particularly at
KIDA and KDIJ overnight/Friday morning, but probabilities of
MVFR conditions are currently near or below 20 percent so will
omit any mention from the TAFs. Winds will remain light through
the period, with typical diurnal up/down-valley flow at KSUN.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...KB