205
FXUS65 KPIH 011731
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1031 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow increases during the day

- Occasional rain and/or snow continues into next week

- Above average temperatures will persist

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Precipitation has been taking its time moving from Nevada and
into southern Idaho, but it is on the way. The trend is for rain
and/or snow to overtake all of central and eastern Idaho. Snow
levels hit by afternoon 6000-7500ft for most locations. The
exceptions are for the Wood River Valley, Mackay, the upper half
of the Snake Plain, and Island Park. Snow levels remain low
enough (6000ft or lower) to keep things as snow or getting to a
mix...depending on location. There is a small window as
precipitation moves in at lower elevations for a very low
probability chance of freezing rain/drizzle. It is too low to
mention in the forecast, but certainly NOT ZERO. IF we see
something like this happen, look for minimal impacts from that.
By tomorrow morning, most of the precipitation will fall in two
areas. The first is the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges, and
the second is along and east of I-15 especially in the
highlands. Snow levels remain in the 5500-7500ft range, with a
few colder pockets in the morning. Looking at 48 hour totals,
most lower elevations will see anywhere from a few hundredths
up to almost 0.33". For the higher elevations of the central
mountains, we are looking at most ranges seeing up to 0.25".
Locally higher amounts are possible around Mt Borah and the
Sawtooths, where there is a 25-55% chance of exceeding
0.50:...but we are concerned the higher resolutions might be too
aggressive with extremely high amounts at those elevations. For
the South Hills/Albion Mountains, southeast and eastern
highlands, we are looking 0.10-0.40" for valley locations. For
the mountain ranges, 0.50-1.30" is forecast. There is low-end
potential for exceeding that in the Bear River Range, but again
the higher resolution models appear to be a bit aggressive. In
terms of snowfall, we will likely see snowflakes falling but not
necessarily accumulating at lower elevations. However, we are
looking at light accumulations across the upper half of the
Snake Plain. We could sneak in something similar if colder spots
don`t mix out quick enough this morning. For Island Park, we
will see a couple of inches in that 2 day window. Up high, we
are thinking we will see up 1-5" for various mountain ranges.
This will produce minimal if any impacts for most mountain
passes. We could see higher amounts across the spine of the
Sawtooths, the Big Holes, and portions of the southeast
highlands. There current forecast is for 5-10" at Emigration
Summit and even higher amounts in the Bear River Range, and this
by reducing some of the highest amounts produced by some model
forecasts. The window for impacts there is late afternoon
through Friday morning. We did issue a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
for that timeframe, as that appears the only major impacts
expected that could impact travel, etc. By tomorrow night,
precipitation quickly wraps up for this round, with some
lingering light precipitation around Island Park and Teton
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

Precipitation returns to central mountains Saturday and spread
east Saturday night into Sunday with widespread rain and snow
Saturday night through Monday. Snow levels Saturday into Sunday
up around 6500 feet dropping to 5 to 6 thousand feet by Monday.
Highs Saturday through Monday in the 40s to around 50 valleys
and mid 30s to mid 40s mountains. Expect generally drier
conditions with only a slight chance of mainly mountain showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be slightly cooler with snow
levels more in the 4 to 5 thousand foot range. Highs Tuesday and
Wednesday 30s mountains and upper 30s to mid 40s valleys. Lows
Monday night and Tuesday night dropping below freezing all
locations both days. Not expecting significant impacts long term
with the high snow levels and the continuation of Well above
normal temperatures even with the slight cooling next Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Area of precipitation working north across East Idaho late this
morning per radar imagery. As precipitation nears each terminal,
expect a rapid drop in CIGS to MVFR/IFR. Temperatures remain
extremely tricky with potential for any type of precipitation,
including brief period of FZRA. As temperatures shift slightly
upward, there is greater potential for a trend toward RA, but SUN,
IDA, and DIJ would be the most likely to hold on to SN the longest
and thus a better chance of LIFR CIGS as well. The moisture and low
CIGS/VIS remain in place through the night, with improvement
expected during the day Friday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Friday for IDZ060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...GK
AVIATION...DMH