822
FXUS65 KPIH 020143
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
643 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow increases during the day

- Occasional rain and/or snow continues into next week

- Above average temperatures will persist

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

No major changes to the forecast, but did go ahead and add the
Big Hole Mountains zone to the Winter Weather Advisory. This is
mainly for travel impacts for Pine Creek Pass for 5-10 inches of
snow. The 10 inches is definitely on the high end for the pass,
but with at least 5-7 inches seeming likely, the Advisory was
warranted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 150 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows widespread cloud cover in
place over the area today as moisture surges into the area. A
well pronounced low moving into central California will sweep
across the northern Great Basin over the next 24 hours. Radar
returns have finally begun to pick up throughout the day as
precip was slow to get started but rain, snow or a mix
(depending on location/elevation) has been observed throughout
much of area. As we progress through the evening, expect the
precip to continue into the morning hours on Friday. SW flow
aloft continues to warm the lower levels of the atmosphere and
snow levels continue to rise. Based off latest hi-res model
soundings, much of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley should see a
cold rain with maybe a few flakes mixed in from time to time.
Across the Upper Snake, namely around Idaho Falls, model
soundings are more supportive of a mix or even all snow although
surface temperatures are likely too marginal to support much,
if any, accumulation from said snow. A light dusting is possible
but by Friday AM, things should have changed over mostly rain
in this area. Higher elevations, namely above 6500-7000 ft, will
remain snow and some accumulations are expected. The Winter
Weather Advisory continues for the Bear River Range which
remains the most likely area to see some travel issues on Id-36
with the rest of the most significant snow focused across the
highest peaks. Things will slowly begin to taper off later
tomorrow and into Saturday before another round of moisture
moves in later this weekend and into the first part of next
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 150 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

After a break for most of the area on Saturday, precipitation
returns to the region ahead of slowly advancing Pacific trough.
Snow levels are expected to remain 5000-6500 ft Sunday through
Monday, so rain is expected in the valleys with snow in the
mountains. Cold front sags through the region Monday, bringing
snow levels down to valley floors Monday night, but most of the
precipitation should be over by then. Slightly cooler
temperatures are in place for the remainder of the forecast
period with weakly unsettled conditions over the higher
elevations. Another front is expected Wednesday, bringing
temperatures back to near normal by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM MST Thu Jan 1 2026

Probably looking at IFR conditions just about everywhere at
some point tonight. Conditions seem a little worse at DIJ, IDA
and PIH where the band of precipitation is better organized.
Further west towards BYI and SUN, there are gaps in the
precipitation. At SUN, conditions are very close to VLIFR. The
23Z observation from there lends some hope that they may stay
open more than closed. So gave them a more optimistic forecast
with a PROB30 of closing. The band of precip should gradually
end tonight across most places. Then its just a question of how
fast ceilings improve. The NBM seems a bit pessimistic but not
unrealistic. Of course, poor conditions at DIJ will linger well
into Friday as they are further east and being in a valley it
will be a little tougher to clear things out.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for IDZ060-064.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AMM
SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...13