424
FXUS65 KPIH 241227
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
527 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog and low clouds have cleared out of the Snake Plain with
  dry northerly winds. Uncertainty remains if the Eastern Magic
  valley will clear out and if stratus will move back up the
  Snake Plain late Saturday into Sunday.

- Cooler for the weekend with isolated snow chances across the
  eastern highlands late today into early Sunday

- Continued dry conditions into next week with a warming trend
  likely, although valley inversions could wreck havoc with
  this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

A weak cold front has moved through the area and cold, drier
northerly air is moving down the Snake River plain. Some models
are now showing the northerly flow stalling somewhere around
Pocatello this morning. So, stratus and patchy fog will likely
continue over the Eastern Magic valley/Shoshone region this
morning. Overnight lows in the Eastern Magic Valley/Shoshone
region will likely be limited to the teens with cloud cover
expected to linger. The area will remain dry however throughout
the region tonight and into the afternoon hours on Saturday. For
this morning, expect single digit temperatures and below zero
for mountain areas for our northern areas. For today, expecting
all areas to stay below freezing for daytime highs despite the
fairly ample sunshine expected.

A weak shortwave will move into Central Montana and western
Wyoming late today and into Sunday and this will likely increase
cloud cover around the Island Park area and into the eastern
highlands late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Could see some
snow showers as well but not expecting much, if any,
accumulation with these. Temperatures will remain colder than
normal on Sunday with morning lows in the teens in the Snake
Plain/Eastern Magic valley and single digits elsewhere. Daytime
temperatures Sunday will generally be in the mid to upper 20s.
There will be a few lower areas across our southwest that will
see temperatures in the low 30s. Models are suggesting low
stratus clearing out of the Eastern Magic valley late today into
Sunday with stratus returning for our northeast areas with a
weak wave moving down. There is not a lot of confidence in
stratus clearing out of the Eastern Magic valley. Models are
showing southwest flow to continue and move back up the Snake
Plain. Southwest winds would be favorable for stratus to
continue/return.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave, upper level ridging
is expected to again build across eastern Idaho. This will keep
things dry for much of next week. A few weak impulses embedded
in the upper flow aloft could bring some increased cloud cover
but not expecting much chance for precip. The biggest forecast
challenge will be whether or not we see a return of lower valley
stratus. Based on what happened this week, it`s certainly
possible with the pattern being similar in nature. Current
forecast does not show this however and has temps returning to
the upper 30s and lower 40s in the lower valleys for much of
next week. If stratus transpires though, temps will be much
cooler. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Persistence of stratus remains a problem as it continues to hold
on in SUN, BYI and PIH.  Drier air has moved in from the north
as DIJ and IDA have cleared out and have falling dew points
behind a weak cold front. PIH cleared out earlier this morning
with northerly flow. However, northerly flow has backed off and
stratus has moved back in from the southwest. Multiple models
show dry air aloft eventually making it to the surface across
our entire area even if southwest flow remains or returns to
the Snake Plain. There is a lot of uncertainty here. There is a
significant amount of stratus to dry out and stratus could
easily persistent into Sunday. Have went with model guidance, at
this point. Again, SUN will likely clear out by late morning.
However, with southerly flow forecast for this afternoon,
stratus could return. A weak wave moves over our northeast areas
this evening into Sunday morning. Expect light snow showers
with MVFR, possibly IFR conditions, at DIJ this evening into
Sunday morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...TW