319
FXUS65 KPIH 301845
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1245 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms continues through
  Friday

- Gradual warming and drying trend through the Fourth of July
  weekend

- Chance for appreciable/measurable rainfall diminished
  throughout the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

We continue with low pressure somewhat dominating the weather
pattern today and through the next few days. Each day we are
expecting one or more weak ripples within this pattern to impact
central and eastern Idaho. Through this evening, one of these
ripples will kick off showers and thunderstorms. More widespread
coverage will be over the central mountains once again and into
the eastern highlands. More isolated development is forecast
across the South Hills/Albion Mountains. It does appear some of
this either moves off the mountains into portions of the Snake
Plain, or the higher resolution models are mimicking development
along any potential outflow boundaries. Both are plausible.
Anything over the central mountains have the potential for
locally heavier precipitation due to all of the moisture around
from the past few days. The chance is much lower elsewhere, but
certainly not zero at this point. There is a 10-30% chance of
gusts over 35 mph mainly across southern areas into the Magic
Valley and Snake Plain. For tonight and tomorrow morning, we are
expecting this round to dwindle, with 10-15% chance of a light
showers or virga as mid level moisture sneaks in from the
southwest. From mid-morning onward, showers and thunderstorms
will kick off once again. There will be two main areas for
scattered showers and storms: across the central mountains and
across the highlands/bench areas from Oakley to Driggs. Overall
rainfall potential drops off tomorrow, with most showers or
storms producing under 0.10". With the overall airmass a bit
drier (something we have to watch given all of rain and snow
many of us saw), the HREF and REFS thunderstorm potential for
over 35 mph is 50-90% and highest gusts topping out closer to 55
mph. If the air ends up more humid that the models believe
should be there, we tend to see stronger gusts in this
environment being much lower. Either way, we are expecting a
better chance of seeing some outflow wind potential tomorrow.
One thing we didn`t really account for that well this morning
was areas of fog and low stratus. We should see LESS tonight
overall, but the most likely areas for redevelopment will be
across portions of the central mountains...especially the
Stanley and Copper Basins. 0

We basically see the pattern repeating itself through Friday.
Each day, the amount of moisture diminishes a bit more. For
Thursday, any chance of showers and storms will be across mainly
the eastern and southeast highlands...as well as the South
Hills/Albion Mountains and the northern half of the Snake Plain.
On Friday, the chance will be mainly over the central mountains
and eastern highlands. The Fourth of July weekend looks dry,
with highs pushing the 80s and into the 90s by Sunday. It will
be a bit breezy here and there, but no major or widespread wind
events coming over the weekend. The Four Corners high becomes
established early next week. That puts us back into southwest
flow and potentially into a monsoon-type pattern. For now, the
models seem a bit fickle on any organized bigger surge of
moisture working across Idaho. We will need to watch to see how
that unfolds, but even if we see some moisture in
here...initially expect much warmer conditions with a potential
for virga/light showers and dry thunderstorms returning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1148 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Weak impulses moving through a remnant broader upper trough over
the region will combine with adequate moisture to support a
chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening. While an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out
at any of the terminals, the better potential will exist at KSUN
and KDIJ. Have maintained a PROB30 thunderstorm mention at
these terminals from roughly 19Z-01Z, with VCSH mentioned at
other terminals. Even with a passing shower or storm, VSBYs and
CIGs are likely to remain VFR with only a low probability for
brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise winds will remain much lighter
today compared to recent days while VFR conditions persist. Will
see periods of mid-level CIGs but well within VFR range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

We continue with some potential for showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week. Another round of showers and storms
will persist into this evening, with much better chances and
appreciable rainfall across the central mountains and Zone 411.
We do expect isolated showers and storms (with much lower
wetting rain potential) across higher elevations along the Utah
border. With storms down south, there is a 10-30% chance of
gusts over 35 mph through this evening. There is some indication
storms are able to either move into Zone 425 and into the
Pocatello area, or outflow and potential isolated storms along
outflow boundaries to occur this evening. We will likely see
some virga or light sprinkles overnight over most the area as
mid level moisture remains across central and eastern Idaho. By
mid-morning Wednesday into the evening hours, another round of
more widespread showers and storms will commence. There are two
areas of focus and where coverage reaches scattered, across the
central mountains (especially 475/476), and along the highlands
and bench areas from around Oakley to Driggs(411/413/427). We
are expecting at least isolated showers and storms to make it
across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. The airmass SHOULD be
drying out a bit, but the models may also be a bit bullish on
that considering all of the moisture that fell. Probability
forecasts for gust potential over 35 mph is 50-90% for a good
chunk of the area. IF the models are spot-on with how much we
dry out, that makes sense. However, if the opposite happens,
that potential is much lower. That said, some decent downpours
are still possible. Thursday`s potential for showers and storms
is lower and mainly over 410, 411, 413 and 427. Coverage should
be mostly isolated with a lower potential of wetting and even
measurable rainfall. Friday`s possibilities look a bit higher
and across the central mountains and Zone 411.

For the Fourth of July weekend, we do stay dry with humidities
dropping off...especially outside of the central mountains.
Winds do pick up, but not at any speeds noteworthy of enhanced
potential for near-critical fire weather conditions. Next week,
the Four Corners High is re-established putting us into typical
southwest flow/monsoon pattern. We will need to monitor how much
moisture is tapped to see how much thunderstorm potential
returns. That said, at least initially...any thunderstorms
around Monday or Tuesday look definitely dry at this point.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...KB
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes