570
FXUS65 KPIH 270448
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1048 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front brings breezy winds and showers through the
  overnight.

- Mostly dry weather returns before another system brings cooler
  temperatures and showers Friday through the weekend.

- Outdoor Halloween activities look to be unsettled and chilly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Satellite imagery shows a shortwave feature pushing through
Oregon today, bringing a combination of wind and precipitation
to East Idaho late this afternoon into early Tuesday. Gusty
winds will increase this afternoon and evening through the
overnight hours as an associated cold front pushes through the
region. Widespread gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, though
probabilistic high-end guidance indicates a few locations could
briefly gust over 50 mph, mainly across portions of the Southern
Sawtooth and Raft River regions. Travel impacts due to gusty
crosswinds should remain localized to Interstate 84 from the
I-84/I-86 split south to the Utah state line. We will continue
to hold off on a Wind Advisory given the localized footprint of
the strongest gusts and less-favorable overnight timing.

Light precipitation already evident on radar across western
Idaho is poised to overspread the Central Mountains through the
remainder of the afternoon, quickly shifting east this evening
and overnight as a mix of valley rain and mountain snow. An
isolated thunderstorm remains possible late this afternoon and
early evening. Precipitation totals remain in line with previous
guidance, generally under 0.10 inches in the valleys and up to
0.25 inches across higher terrain, especially along the
Continental Divide and eastern highlands. Snow levels drop to
around 6,000 feet overnight, allowing higher basins to pick up a
light dusting. Confidence remains low for any valley snow
accumulations below 6,000 feet, though a few flurries may mix in
early Tuesday morning.

The upper trough ejects northeast early Tuesday, but East Idaho
remains under broad troughing over the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Rockies. While a few isolated higher-elevation showers
may linger on Tuesday, a drying and slight warming trend will
take hold through Thursday. For the late-week system, ensemble
means depict a closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast Friday
transitioning into an open trough over the Intermountain West
by Sunday. Despite persistent cluster spread regarding the exact
depth and track, East Idaho looks to remain on the forward
flank of the trough, supporting continued rounds of valley rain
and mountain snow showers through the weekend with generally
light liquid amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Precipitation shield working east through extreme eastern Idaho.
Snow showers linger at DIJ but have them ending by 07Z with MVFR
to IFR ceilings ending by 08Z. Other sites are VFR and will
remain that way through Tuesday evening. Expect some mid level
ceilings for the most part at the sites but not expecting
significant winds as they should die down overnight and be
around 10 knots at BYI, PIH and IDA through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Look for increasing wind gusts today ahead of and behind the cold
front passage. By mid afternoon, wind gusts will be 20-30 mph across
much of the area with 30-40 mph gusts across the Snake River Plain
and across the Arco Desert overnight into Tuesday with some locally
higher gusts to 45 mph at times. It will remain breezy through
Tuesday. With the cold front, rain chances return as early as this
afternoon in the Central Mountains and spread eastward through the
evening and overnight. QPF will range from 0.05-0.15" with higher
totals in the mountains and some parts of the eastern Magic Valley
and South Hills seeing little to no precipitation at all. Any snow
accumulation of a few inches generally remains above 6500 ft with
less than an inch between 6000 and 6500 ft. Highs range from mid 50s
to mid 60s today and will be about 10 degrees colder for
tomorrow.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...AMM