092
FXUS65 KPIH 030522
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1022 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy, post-frontal winds will diminish this evening, with dry
  and mild conditions expected Monday.

- A pattern change will arrive mid-week, bringing precipitation,
  breezy winds, and near-normal to below-normal temperatures.

- Cooler air accompanying the mid-week system will lower snow
  levels to 6,000 to 7,000 feet, meaning rain in the valleys and
  rain-snow mix likely in the mid-elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 324 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Breezy, post-frontal winds are observed this afternoon, with
widespread gusts ranging 35 to 45 mph and locally stronger in the
higher elevations and across the Arco Desert. Winds will diminish
this evening and remain fairly light overnight and through the day
Monday. A slight chance (<15%) of a shower will linger along the ID-
WY border through evening.

In the wake of the cold front, daytime temperatures are several
degrees cooler than yesterday but are approximately 5 degrees above
normal across much of the region. Overnight lows will follow a
similar trend in that they will be cooler than last night but still
very mild and well above normal for this time of year. Temperatures
on Monday will rebound slightly, warming into the mid to high 60s
for the valleys and 40s and 50s in the mid to high elevations. Dry
and pleasant conditions will prevail through Monday before a more
active pattern emerges in the extended period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

The extended period begins mild, with temperatures early in the week
continuing to run more than five degrees above climatological
averages. A pattern change will arrive mid-week, resulting in
temperatures cooling to near or below normal for the latter half of
the week. The two wettest days will be Thursday and Friday, as
precipitation associated with a Pacific trough reaches much of
Southeast Idaho by Wednesday, although north-central Idaho could see
precipitation beginning as early as Tuesday. As cooler air filters
in, snow levels will gradually lower to 6K-7K feet by Thursday,
meaning precipitation is forecast to remain all rain in the valleys,
with a rain-snow mix possible in the mid-elevations. Regarding QPF,
we are cautious of inflated NBM values along the spine of the
Sawtooths (PIH/BOI border) and have blended with lower-percentile
NBM and deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance. Additionally, winds will
increase mid-week as the trough axis swings inland and the pressure
gradient tightens. Model variation increases significantly by next
weekend as Idaho becomes wedged between two upper troughs. While
approximately 20 percent of ensemble members maintain high pressure,
the remaining clusters show significant disagreement on the timing
and depth of these systems. That said, confidence in the forecast
for next weekend remains low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1016 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025

Winds have died down at sunset with around 10 knots at PIH and
IDA this evening before dying down then increasing to around 10
knots Monday afternoon after 18Z once again. Will have
widespread VFR with clear skies to only some mid level few to
scattered coverage during the day Monday. Will start to see
moisture and cloud coverage increase Monday night with some
showers approaching SUN by Tuesday morning.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...GK