870
FXUS65 KPIH 021846
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1246 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next storm brings wind and a few showers and storms
  Wednesday and Thursday

- ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures expected most of the forecast
  period

- Forecast is trending drier for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A fairly calm day continues ahead of the next low coming through
the state tomorrow into Thursday. There is still an outside shot
of a shower (more likely virga/sprinkles) around Island Park and
Monida Pass. We will see impacts starting later tomorrow
afternoon with the next storm as it approaches. We will likely
see a lot of virga/sprinkles mid afternoon through tomorrow
night, although there is a chance of measurable rainfall
tomorrow night into Thursday across the central mountains and
along the Montana border. There is a low chance of
thunderstorms as well, and IF we do see lightning, it will be
mainly across the central mountains tomorrow afternoon through
sunset. That said, it is NON-ZERO elsewhere. There is a 10-30%
chance of gusts over 35 mph with anything convective that
develops. It looks like the main front arrives tomorrow evening
and quickly sweeps across the area tomorrow night. There is the
potential for a few showers and storms lingering along the
Montana border Thursday. The bigger story will be the wind.
Right now, we are borderline for WIND ADVISORY or LAKE WIND
ADVISORY criteria for the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and
surrounding areas. The pattern turns breezy starting Friday
across the board. Trends for the weekend are slower and farther
north with the next low impacting central and eastern Idaho.
Right now, it looks like the initial low skirts by to the north
(similar to tomorrow) with any real potential for rainfall and
thunderstorm being across the central mountains, and along the
Montana/Wyoming borders. This trend also continues to point
toward a closed low developing offshore and slowly coming
onshore next week. There should me a minimal chance of any
showers or storms until potentially the middle of next week.
With the exception of Thursday and Sunday, highs return to the
70s and 80s for valley locations with some spots maybe pushing
90 next week. For Thursday and Sunday, highs for lower
elevations should remain in the 70s, perhaps touching 80 in
warmest locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions likely today with some gusts to 20 kts possible
at most TAF sites this afternoon. SUN should switch to upvalley
around midday with another switch to the southwest mid to late
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Dry air work work into the region over the next couple days
although winds look relatively light. A weak system will pass
through Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday Night which could
produce some dry showers/thunderstorms.

There is some concern about borderline RED FLAG CONDITIONS
across Zone 427 tomorrow due to wind gusts and humidity and mid
and upper slopes. We are expecting gusts 25-35 mph with humidity
in the 10-20% range. After coordinating with the local fuels
expert and crews on the ground at the Summit Creek Fire, we will
NOT issue any headline at this point. Winds will be much
stronger tomorrow night and Thursday, but humidities will be
much higher.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...13/Keyes