301
FXUS65 KPIH 011627
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1027 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures continue
  through most of the week.

- Patchy smoke will remain but conditions will gradually improve
  through week and, especially, the weekend.

- Thunderstorms will likely return to East Idaho by late week
  into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

High pressure remains in place over Southeast Idaho bringing
mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and overall light winds.
Temperatures will run 4 to 8 degrees above normal today and
tomorrow. Have maintained patchy smoke due to smoke from fires
in the northwest moving into our area. Smoke models do show the
stream of smoke dropping off due to a change of winds aloft.
However, smoke will linger in the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Forecast conditions remain the same from previous runs. Ensembles
maintain strong ridge through the Great Basin and East Idaho for the
next several days. By midweek, there is still a non-zero chance of
seeing a stray thunderstorm or two across higher elevations. Chances
increase after Wednesday, and especially leading into the weekend as
moisture circles the high into the region and shortwaves ejecting
out of the Pacific low begin to weaken the ridge amplitude. Until
then, expect temperatures generally in the 80s for most lower
elevations, though models have peaked a little on Tuesday with some
lower 90s appearing in a few areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1025 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. We should see
some increase in mid level clouds especially at SUN and BYI, but
not expecting any rain or thunder out of that. There is little
to no chance of gusty outflow winds based on some of the higher
resolution models and ensembles.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

High pressure will bring mostly clear skies, warmer
temperatures, and dry conditions early this week. Relative
humidity will be critical to near critical the next couple of
days. Through Wednesday expect above normal temperatures and
overall light winds. By mid week, monsoon moisture starts to
work its way back into the area. Look for very isolated showers
and thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon (possibly Wednesday
afternoon) with increasing chances by Friday afternoon. Models
have been trending toward more likely chances of showers and
thunderstorms by the weekend.

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A ridge of high pressure will continue to build into East Idaho
through mid week, maintaining low level inversions and generally
light winds. Smoke filtering in from fires across the Northwest is
expected to continue to impact East Idaho, with localized visibility
restrictions especially at night, and hazy skies during the day as
the atmosphere becomes more mixed. Increased moisture is expected by
late week for increasing thunderstorm chances by the weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...TW
AIR QUALITY...DMH