257
FXUS65 KPIH 071114
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
514 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms in the extreme
  northern areas in Custer, Clark, Fremont, and Lemhi counties
  this afternoon and evening, and Fremont and Clark counties Tue
  afternoon and evening.


- Significant cool-down compared to yesterday, but clearing
  skies this afternoon starts a warm-up on Tue.

- Breezy to windy conditions on Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today through Thu...At discussion time, showers and
thunderstorms were still ongoing in the northern half of the
forecast area, but by morning should be limited to four northern
counties: Custer, Lemhi, Clark, and Fremont. Would expect no
more than scattered coverage for showers and isolated conditions
for thunderstorms for all day today. By late afternoon
locations in the south will have clear skies. This should allow
colder temperatures tonight, but the warm-up will overcome this
cold start as clear skies continue for several days.

The passing front last night pushed winds to near Wind Advisory
this overnight, but wind has subsided already and should not
increase again until the next trough makes an approach from the
west on Thu afternoon. Limited areas may reach critical levels
of humidity and gusts that afternoon for wildfire danger.

Thu night through Sun...This period starts with a east-west
oriented trough sliding eastward to the north of southern
Idaho. However, just how far south it digs is considerably
different in the ensembles. Four clusters result, all with 20-30
percent chance of occurrence. About 50 percent have the low far
enough south to bring showers and thunderstorms back to at least
portions of the forecast area (mainly north) on Sat and Sun.
The other 40 percent shows the trough staying far enough north
to lessen the risk of showers. Will just have to wait and see.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Expect decreasing cloudiness during the morning, and only few-
sct and one layer of cloudiness by late morning. Only KDIJ has a
risk of SHRA and TSRA, and only this morning. Even this should
be over by 07/15Z. Wind will generally be gusty, G20KT to G25KT,
much of it over by late afternoon. Not expecting very much time
for southeast wind at KSUN, with a shift to southwest early
afternoon, then by mid-evening northwest. Most of the rest of
the wind will be south to southwest or west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Diminishing showers and thunderstorms in the extreme north in
the border region with Montana, and in the Sawtooth.
Precipitation amounts should be low for today and Tue, and
thunderstorm activity should be limited to isolated storms.
Afternoon temperatures will be much colder today compared to
Sun, but moderate to strong warming each day through Thu will
allow afternoon humidity to lower in at least a few low elvation
areas to below 15 percent. Wind will be stronger Thu ahead of a
trough sinking southward from Montana. This may combine with the
lower humidity to reach some critical thresholds. Just not sure
it will reach zones that have critical fuels.

Temperatures will cool again starting Fri, with precipitation
having a chance to develop over the coming weekend, mainly in
the northern end of the fire weather forecast area.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick