223
FXUS65 KPIH 021910
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
110 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Prolonged Quiet Weather Period: High pressure and dry air will
  keep eastern Idaho completely dry with minimal cloud cover
  through the upcoming weekend and into early October.

- Unseasonable Late-Week Warmth: An amplifying Great Basin ridge
  will boost lower-elevation temperatures into the upper 70s and
  lower 80s through the weekend.

- No Fall-Like Weather in Sight: High confidence exists for
  above-normal temperatures and suppressed precipitation
  extending through the first full week of October.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High pressure in place through the next week for generally dry
conditions. Sunday appears to be the warmest day of the period,
and temperatures could approach or exceed record highs in a few
locations. With Monday in reach of the shorter-term models, we
are seeing increased signal for moisture rotating north around
the center of the high parked over Utah by that afternoon.
Ensembles still look fairly dry, with NBM following along with
no QPF generated anywhere within the CWA. We have to bump up to
the Max percentiles in the NBM to see any QPF generated for
Monday and Monday night, but that lends some credence to the
signal. Given that some of these models have been persistent
with the precipitation chances, we would not be surprised at
this point to see the forecast moisten up through the weekend
for the Monday time frame, but the chances will likely be
isolated and light. The ridge does rebound, so dry conditions
will round out the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Seeing some high level clouds across the area today but these
will be of little impact. It`s just a change from the mainly
clear skies of the past few days but VFR will remain through the
period once again regardless. Winds remain light into Saturday
as high pressure builds over the region through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern well
into next week, resulting in a prolonged period of warm and dry
conditions. Temperatures will run above climatological norms through
late next week and likely beyond, peaking at around 10 degrees above
normal this weekend. Minimum humidity will be lowest on Sunday, with
widespread 15 to 20 percent min RH values and they will likely stay
around this range for much of next week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan