737
FXUS65 KPIH 140910
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
310 AM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday.
Upper-trough continues to lift through Southeast Idaho and will exit
to our east early today. Current radar loop shows ongoing snow
showers across the Upper Snake River Plain and eastern mountains and
highlands. We will go ahead and cancel the remaining winter
headlines early with this morning`s forecast update as only an
additional inch or less of snow accumulation is expected. Satellite
loop indicates clouds scattering across the Snake River Plain and
further west. Very isolated pockets of low stratus and fog could
develop as clouds continue to scatter early today, however winds
should remain elevated enough to really inhibit any widespread
formation and impacts. While westerly flow will keep light snow
showers will continue across our eastern mountains and highlands
today, much of the region will see a brief period of dry conditions
in-between systems today. Cloud cover will increase again come this
afternoon and precipitation chances will increase again from west to
east beginning late tonight/early Saturday as the next wave of
moisture moves inland. Total snow accumulations through Saturday
evening will range up to 8 inches in the Sawtooths, Big Holes, and
Bear River Range with up to two inches for the remainder of the
central mountains and closer to 4 inches over 6,000 feet elevation
south and east of the Snake River Plain. 35 mph 700mb winds will
lead to breezy surface conditions as winds mix down, with the
Craters/Arco Desert area and Blackfoot Mountains region looking
borderline for Wind Advisory criteria, although the timeframe could
be short-lived. Cropp

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
The extended forecast remains largely unchanged with more moisture
and gusty winds are expected Sunday through Tuesday. A passing
shortwave and warm front on Sunday will bring some appreciable
snowfall for our mountain zones. While we won`t be issuing any
products tonight, current forecast snowfall totals through Sunday
and Monday in the Central Mountains would support at least some
Winter Weather Advisories. As the warm front moves north into our
area on Sunday, it will support more of an all rain or rain/snow mix
in the lower elevations with highs pushing into the 50s in the
eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake River Plain. Winds will be
gusty for almost everyone Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday with gusts
ranging from 30 to 40 mph and even some higher gusts up on the ridge
tops.

A deeper trough moves into Eastern Idaho early Monday and as it
moves east, it will take the heavier snowfall eastward with it
refocusing the higher snowfall totals to the Eastern and
Southeastern Highlands for Monday night into Tuesday. As a cold
front comes through with this deeper trough, look for temperatures
to fall into the 30s and 40s once again. The ECMWF and GFS agree on
a ridge building in over our area on Wednesday, but then diverge in
their solutions for what happens for the second half of the week.
The GFS keeps us mostly dry for Thursday and Friday while the ECMWF
brings in another trough midday Thursday. So, we will have to wait
and see how models resolve this over the next few days. AMM


&&

.AVIATION...12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday.
Our more organized snowfall is moving eastward into Wyoming this
morning leading to drier conditions at most TAF sites for now,
though light snow is lingering a bit longer at DIJ. We are watching
for any development of some low stratus as clouds clear out early
this morning, but with low confidence in coverage and placement,
have kept with some low FEW to SCT clouds around 2000 ft. As our
next shortwave moves in, scattered snow showers return to Eastern
Idaho this afternoon and evening. While a snow shower passing
directly over a terminal will likely create some MVFR or even IFR
conditions briefly, will continue with predominantly VFR conditions
in the forecast. Winds will remain breezy today with gusts of 20 to
25 kts at BYI, PIH, and IDA. AMM


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Rain on snow has created snowmelt causing mostly
minor flooding south of Rexburg along the east bench of the Snake
River plain. A Flood Advisory remains in effect for this area
through this afternoon. With cooler temperatures again today,
snowmelt will slow down and flooding should drop off significantly.
Wyatt/Cropp


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$