613
FXUS65 KPIH 070915
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
315 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning & Wind Advisory in place for Sunday due to
  strong, gusty winds and very dry conditions.

- Isolated virga showers and mostly dry storms through the
  morning.

- Better chance for widespread showers and storms Tuesday into
  Wednesday along with much cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

It`s a windy, dry forecast for our Sunday as an area of low pressure
moves through the Idaho panhandle, northwestern Montana, and
southern Canada and its associated cold front continues to make its
way through eastern Idaho. Early this morning, radar is picking up
on some light returns across some of the higher elevations in the
southeastern and eastern Highlands. Very little, if any, moisture is
likely making it down to the surface, but perhaps there are a few
sprinkles out there. Through the morning, we will continue to see the
virga showers continue moving out of the area and most of us will
stay completely dry. Temperatures will be much cooler today, thanks
to the cold front, with highs staying in the 60s for many. Even with
the cooler temperatures, it is VERY dry and will be quite windy with
gusts throughout the Snake River Plain and eastern Magic Valley
ranging from 35 to 50 mph. Due to these conditions, we have both a
RED FLAG WARNING and WIND ADVISORY out for these areas. Any fires
already ongoing or that start today will thrive in these conditions
and gusty winds will create chop on area lakes that could overwhelm
small craft.

Monday will be a bit of a break in between systems with temperatures
rebounding into the 70s to near 80 degrees and afternoon winds being
a bit lighter. It will still be quite dry though, with min RHs still
in the teens for most. It`s not until Tuesday that we finally see
some improvement as the next system arrives as an area of low
pressure drops into northern Washington on Tuesday and moves
eastward. Models still maintain that this system will actually bring
some much needed precipitation to much of Eastern Idaho. By
Wednesday evening, the NBM shows about a 30 to 50 percent chance of
at least a tenth of an inch of rainfall from Burley to Pocatello to
Idaho Falls and a 10 to 25 percent chance of a quarter of an inch.
The most rainfall will likely fall up along the spine of the
Sawtooths and in the Eastern Highlands with about a 60 percent
chance of a half inch of QPF in these areas. This will drop
temperatures back into the 60s to near 70 degrees again on Tuesday
and Wednesday before a warming trend gets underway on Thursday.
Winds will also remain breezy each afternoon through Wednesday, too.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The cold front moving through Eastern Idaho today will not bring
much in the way of any precipitation, but more impacts in the form
of strong, gusty winds of 25 to 35 kits. The strongest gusts will be
at KPIH and KIDA. Though clouds are passing through, they remain in
the mid and upper levels with VFR CIGs. We actually will see a brief
break in the cloud cover around midday before the next round of
clouds arrives tonight into Monday. Given the FROPA, it seems less
likely that SUN will shift to its usual afternoon up valley winds,
so TAF shows generally down valley winds, but there is a small
potential for some more westerly winds at times. Weather becomes
"quieter" on Monday with lighter, but still breezy, winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A RED FLAG WARNING continues for Fire Weather Zones 425 and 427
today due to very dry conditions (min RHs of 10-15%) and gusty winds
up to 40 mph. Outside of these two zones, we will see near critical
fire weather conditions with strong wind gusts up to 50 mph in zone
410 and gusts of 25 to 40 mph elsewhere. Min RHs outside of the Red
Flag Warning will range from 15 to 25 percent. Light returns are
visible on radar this morning as a cold front works through eastern
Idaho this morning though little to no actual liquid precipitation
is expected to reach the ground outside of some sprinkles. We should
see a break Monday, followed by an increasing chance of showers
(with wetting rains) and thunderstorms midweek.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055-066-
067.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...AMM