343
FXUS65 KPIH 160801
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
201 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and
  thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana
  border on Monday.

- Cooler weather for Tuesday but much hotter by Thursday.

- Windy on Friday, then turning much cooler for the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An approaching shortwave trough will produce low chances for showers
and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Today, the best
chances run from Custer County over to the Montana border. Some of
the models are hinting at a few light showers possible across the
southern highlands as well. In either case, not looking for much
rainfall today with only a few hundredths at most. Today we are
ahead of that trough and we should be warm once again with highs in
the mid 80s across the lower elevations. On Tuesday, the trough is
nearly overhead. This will allow for slightly better coverage of
showers and thunderstorms, perhaps into the upper Snake Plain. But
where and how much will depend upon timing of the trough with the
peak heating of the day. Once again, not looking for much
rainfall...just a few hundredths. Temps on Tuesday will be cooler
with highs around 80 in the lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

By mid week, high pressure will be building in over Eastern Idaho
once again and our temperatures will be warming up even more. Highs
will be in the 80s throughout all of the Snake River Plain and
eastern Magic Valley and some even approach the 90 degree mark. In
the mid elevations, highs will still be in the mid 70s to near 80
degrees. By Thursday, we`ll be some 5 to 10 degrees warmer with many
of us reaching the mid 90s. In fact, the NBM is currently showing a
40 to 60 percent chance of highs exceeding 95 degrees between Burley
and Pocatello. Even the mid elevations in the Eastern Highlands will
warm into the mid and upper 80s. Look for breezy winds gusting
around 25 to 35 mph each afternoon. Late Thursday our ridge begins
to move eastward, opening the door to the potential for a few
isolated showers and storms in parts of the Central Mountains and up
north near the Island Park area. At this time, Friday looks mostly
dry, but it will be a transitional day ahead of our next system
moving in for the weekend. Highs will be a couple of degrees cooler
on Friday, mainly in the 80s across much of our area. Winds pick up
a bit more Friday afternoon, too, gusting around 30 to 40 mph. By
Saturday afternoon, the ECMWF and GFS both show a closed low over
the PNW and a tight pressure gradient over Eastern Idaho. The models
disagree on exactly how much precipitation some of us could see, but
both agree on a cool down and continued gusty winds on Saturday. As
the forecast currently stands, highs look to fall into the 60s and
70s on Saturday with everyone in the 60s by Sunday. Of course, we
will see if this forecast remains on track over the next several
days!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Upper-level clouds will continue to build into eastern Idaho
out of the southwest overnight and throughout the day Monday as
conditions remain dry. Light winds will return overnight ahead
of a diurnal increase during the daytime hours Monday, with
gusts peaking around 15-25 kts. Best shower and thunderstorm
development for Monday afternoon/evening looks to remain
confined to the Central Mountains and Continental Divide, with
very isolated activity possible Monday night. The HREF model
probability of thunder through 6 AM Tuesday does show a 10-20%
chance at KIDA/KSUN and a 20-30% chance at KDIJ, but less than a
10% chance at KPIH and KBYI. Given the bulk of model guidance
keeping activity away from terminals or very isolated in nature,
have kept with a dry forecast for now.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

While most of the area will be dry today, there is
a 20 to 40 percent chance for some isolated to nearly scattered
storms across Fire Weather Zones 475 and 476 with about a 20 percent
chance in the northernmost parts of zones 411 and 422. Winds will be
breezy once again today with gusts around 25 to 35 mph in the
eastern Magic Valley and out across the INL/Arco Desert areas. These
breezy winds and afternoon minimum RHs ranging from 12 to 20
percent. The isolated storm chance will shift a bit eastward on
Tuesday before a ridge of high pressure builds in over the area on
Wednesday and Thursday to really heat us up. Wind gusts of 25 to 35
mph will continue each afternoon and get windy on Friday as gusts
increase to closer to 35 to 40 mph. Our weather pattern changes to
cooler and potentially wetter for some as we head into next weekend.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...MacKay
FIRE WEATHER...AMM