649
FXUS65 KPIH 301748
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1148 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps for Labor Day
  weekend.

- Dry pattern continues through most of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Today looks like a pretty quiet day across the region. Upper level
ridge over western Idaho will slide through central Idaho. Models
are picking up on some moisture that will try to work over the top
of the ridge. Some of the models are indicating a few isolated light
rain showers developing this afternoon in the higher terrain of
western Custer County. Otherwise expect dry weather elsewhere. Wind
look light. Looks like temperatures overperformed the NBM forecast
by a couple degrees on Friday. Will be interesting to see if that
trend continues today, although its probably not all that impactful.
As a whole, the NBM mean and 50th percentile seem reasonably lined
up. With that said, most communities should see highs at least
ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Mostly clear skies and
light winds expected tonight with overnight lows falling into the
40s to low 50s in most communities.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Models remain bullish on development of strong ridge through the
Great Basin into Idaho for the Labor Day weekend, continuing well
into next week. There are some differences in the ensemble clusters
with regard to how much influence the low off the Pacific coast will
influence the coast, and thus there are some very minor differences
in how much convective potential can be realized any particular
afternoon, especially for Tuesday and beyond. The NBM means have
backed off considerably on any kind of mention of thunderstorms
until late next week, but the 90th percentiles QPF do develop some
very light amounts each afternoon across higher elevations, so still
can`t completely rule it out at this time. Daytime highs still look
stable with daytime highs remaining in the 90s throughout the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Nearly ideal conditions for aviation interests across eastern
Idaho. VFR expected to prevail through the period with mostly
clear skies and very light winds. The only thing worth noting
will be the potential for some light showers, or virga, near
KSUN later this afternoon as suggested by a few, not all, of the
hi-res models. As such, added some VCSH wording there but this
appears to be in the only terminals with any chance of precip
today and even there, the chances look quite low. Expect this
quiet weather to continue throughout the holiday weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Mostly dry weather will continue through the
weekend. Very low chances for rain showers exists today across
western portions of 475 and 476 along with northern sections of 422.
However, no appreciable rainfall amounts is expected. The next best
chance for thunderstorms is at the earliest Tuesday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...13