940
FXUS65 KPIH 121135
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
535 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record highs possible today and Wednesday with
  afternoon temperatures 20-25 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE

- A few mostly dry thunderstorms possible today, with better
  chances Wednesday

- Wind Advisory for much of Southeast Idaho Wednesday for gusts
  to 55 mph with the potential for severe wind gusts at times

- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday for convective
  wind gusts 60 mph or greater

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

This week is packed with various impacts from near-record to record
heat, strong winds with the potential for severe wind gusts, and
finally frost/freeze conditions by next weekend. Starting with
today, temperatures will run more than 20 degrees above
climatological normals with many of our low elevation areas warming
to 90 degrees. This also means near-record to record temperatures
for many today, as well. Although the warmest temperatures of the
week are forecast today, daytime temperatures will run very similar
again tomorrow.

In additional to the heat both today and tomorrow, dry thunderstorms
will be another concern. Although the potential is low today (less
than 10% chance), the most probable area will be across central
Idaho from the South Hills north into the central mountains. This
threat increases dramatically tomorrow as the ridge breaks down,
with HREF probability of thunder increasing to 30 to 60 percent
across the aforementioned corridor.

A few severe thunderstorm wind gusts are anticipated tomorrow. In
fact, the Storm Prediction Center has included most of our CWA in a
Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms tomorrow due to the increased
potential for severe wind gusts. Surface winds will already be
strong across the region as strong 500 to 700 mb winds mix down to
the surface and so convective winds will have a much easier time
reaching or exceeding 60 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for a
good portion of Southeast Idaho from Noon to 10 PM Wednesday:
the Snake River Plain, eastern Magic Valley, Arco Desert,
Shoshone area, South Hills, Raft River Region, Beaverhead-Lemhi
Highlands, Lost River and Wood River regions. Sustained
West/Southwest winds will range 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55
mph. Again, we expect High Wind/Severe wind gust speeds to be
achieved at times tomorrow.

Temperatures will run cooler on Thursday behind the departing
system, with daytime temps 15 or so degrees cooler than tomorrow. We
will very briefly warm back up on Friday before low pressure
dominates the pattern late week and we cool into the 50s and 60s
during the weekend. This will mean widespread frost/freeze
conditions by Sunday morning with the potential for frost as early
as Friday or Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions forecast areawide with FEW high clouds and light and
variable winds, with the exception of KSUN`s diurnal wind shifts.
The ridge of high pressure will break down tonight/early Wednesday.
Winds will dramatically increase tomorrow and chances for
showers and mostly dry thunderstorms return during the afternoon
tomorrow.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 10 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051>057-
067>070-075.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp