746
FXUS65 KPIH 141205
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
505 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm dry ridge breaks down tonight with light showers across
  the region late tonight through Friday night. High snow levels
  limit accumulations to 1-3" primarily at or above pass level.


- Brief break is expected Saturday, then more active pattern
  returns with more widespread precipitation Sunday into Monday.

- Unsettled conditions are possible through midweek, with much
  cooler temperatures arriving for midweek and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a long-wave trough over the
Washington and Oregon coasts, with an upper-level low on the
southern end of this trough just off the California coast.
Moisture and cloud cover are associated with a short-wave ahead
of this long-wave trough that is currently located over
northern Idaho.

Models show this short-wave/weak cold front moving over mainly
over our northern areas today bringing rain/snow (QPF up to
around 0.25 mainly for upslope areas) mainly to the Central
mountains, Montana Divide, and Eastern Highlands. Snow
accumulations will be above pass levels, mainly above 8000 feet,
with 1 to 3 inches likely. Upslope areas in the Sawtooths,
Pioneers, and the Eastern Highlands (up against the Tetons) will
receive more snow. A rain/snow mix is possible for elevations
around 6000 feet.

Expect breezy southerly winds across the area this morning with
the highest gusts of around 25 to 30 mph for downslope areas
along the I-86 corridor. This system moves through by early
afternoon switching the winds to more westerly this afternoon
with the strongest gusts of around 25 to 30 mph over the Arco
desert and the Upper Snake plain.

Brief, weak high pressure builds into the area on Saturday
bringing dry and partly cloudy conditions. High temperatures
today and Saturday will drop slightly over yesterday but still
be above normal. Expect temperatures in the low to mid 50s with
a few low 60s likely for the Eastern Magic valley and valleys
across our southern areas along the Utah border.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Brief break in the pattern occurs on Saturday as East Idaho
lies between departing northern-stream shortwave and southern-
stream low slowly ejecting north. Low shifts northeast through
East Idaho during the day Sunday, quickly followed by amplified
PacNW trough Monday and Tuesday. There are considerable ensemble
cluster differences regarding the strength of this low, and
these differences amplify with passage of the next trough early
in the week. Precipitation returns as early as Saturday night
for southern portions of the forecast, then spreads north
through the day Sunday. Ensemble means and NBM keep snow levels
high until frontal passage late Sunday or Sunday night but the
coldest air doesn`t arrive until Tuesday through Thursday with
daytime highs dropping into the lower 40s or 30s. As such, this
event remains a mountain snow and valley rain or possibly
rain/snow mix by late Monday. Given the variability in model
solutions, it should come as no surprise that there is a
significant spread in precipitation amounts this far out,
either. By the time the shortwave exits Tuesday into Wednesday,
the precipitation will have outrun the coldest air, so the
likelihood of significant snow accumulation at the valley floors
is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 AM MST Fri Nov 14 2025

Expect VFR conditions and breezy winds today with a weak system
moving through late this morning into the afternoon. Expect
downslope winds (gusts 15 to 25 mph) for BYI, PIH and IDA this
morning before this system moves through. Winds will then become
more west southwest but still breezy, gusts around 20 mph. Rain
showers are possible for SUN and DIJ today, though MVFR
conditions are not expected. DIJ would have the best chance for
MVFR with any lingering showers. However, MVFR conditions for
DIJ are not that likely. Have vicinity showers for the rest of
the TAF sites.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...TW