309
FXUS65 KPIH 150459
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1059 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More widespread showers with a few thunderstorms lingering
  into Thursday.

- Nearly all snow accumulation will remain above about 7,000
  feet, with limited travel impacts possible at a few passes.

- Colder temperatures return starting Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Multiple rounds of showers with a few thunderstorms will
continue as low pressure eventually moves across the southeast
corner tomorrow night. This morning, we saw snow falling down to
almost 6000ft (not accumulating though until you got to 7000ft
or higher) in some spots due to heavier bands and also heavier
showers and storm. Snow levels looked a bit higher tonight, but
feel what the official Blend of Models forecast was too high
again. We pushed it back toward the lowest end of the range.
For tonight, that puts them around 6500-7500ft across the
central mountains and between 7500-9000ft elsewhere. Of note,
that still is 500ft or more HIGHER than the actual lowest end of
the snow level range we could see. As the low moves across our
territory tomorrow night, we pushed snow levels down to around
6500-7000ft. That is still 300-500 HIGHER than the lowest end.
Even with lower snow levels, impactful snow below 9000ft doesn`t
appear to be a big issue at the moment. Current forecasts only
have through tomorrow night anywhere from a Trace to 2" for
anywhere above 7500ft, and anything above 6" well above our
9000ft threshold for an advisory or warning. Needless to say,
temperatures get much colder again. We should be about 10
degrees colder than today, valleys in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The day begins Thursday with an upper low centered near the far SE
corner of the Gem State. Thursday will remain well below normal
temperature wise with 40s and low 50s across the western half of the
area with 30s and 40s for our eastern zones (closer to the low).
We`ll see precip and clouds begin to taper off from west to east
throughout the day but areas along and east of I-15 will have to
wait until later in the afternoon or evening before conditions start
to improve. Cold temperatures in the eastern highlands will support
some accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain (above 7000 ft)
on Thursday. By daybreak Friday, upper level troughing will quickly
transition to a ridge allowing for a brief warming trend Friday into
Sunday with mostly dry conditions and mostly sunny weather through
the first part of the day on Sunday. Temperatures will remain on the
cooler side of normal Fri and Sat but get closer to seasonal norms
by Sunday but that`s when the weather pattern looks to change once
again. Models show a potent trough once again moving into the
Pacific NW  which will bring precip and clouds back into the
forecast for eastern Idaho by as early as Sunday afternoon but
especially for much of the day Monday and into Tuesday. Along with
the precip, we`ll see much colder temperatures once again for Monday
and Tuesday with highs running well below normal along with valley
rain/mountain snow chances. Could even see some valley precip change
over to snow Monday night into Tuesday AM but it`s still unclear how
much precip will remain by that point. Either way, an active fall
weather pattern is expected to continue across the region into the
third week of October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Expect widespread moisture still after around midnight. CIGS
will likely be MVFR, especially with any showers on station.
Heavier showers will likely bring IFR conditions. HREF guidance
took out thunderstorms overnight for KSUN, KBYI and KPIH. Left
mention for KIDA and KDIJ from early morning through the
afternoon. Brought VCTS back in for afternoon for KSUN, KBYI,
and KPIH. Winds will be light overall for evening. Expect breezy
southerly winds by the afternoon with gusts around 20 mph. Left
the winds VRB10G20KT in the afternoon for most sites due to
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, overall flow
will be southerly. There is a hint sites will trend near VFR by
late afternoon into early evening. However, any VFR conditions
will likely be short lived tomorrow evening and trend back to
MVFR/IFR conditions by Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

No broad fire weather concerns this week as low pressure rotates
across the Great Basin. Wetting rains and high elevation snow
are likely starting today in the Central Mountains, expanding
everywhere tonight and Wednesday. Showers linger Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...01