992
FXUS65 KPIH 261144
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
544 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low level clouds and the potential for some patchy fog this
  morning.

- Cold front and showers arrive later today.

- Breezy to windy conditions this evening into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

We are watching for some patchy dense fog again this morning. So
far, based on satellite and area cameras and visibility sensors,
what is out there now appears to be lower level cloud cover in the
Eastern Highlands. We are also watching some increasing cloud cover
move in from the west, so we will see if/how this cloud cover
impacts fog development this morning. Overall confidence is how much
fog we see and where exactly it sets up is low. The cloud cover
mentioned is moving in ahead of approaching troughing in the Pacific
Northwest. This troughing moves through Idaho this evening and
overnight and brings a cold front with it. This cold front ushers in
showers, mountain snow, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures.
Showers arrive in the Central Mountains this afternoon and spread
eastward overnight into Tuesday, bringing total QPF in the lower
elevations to around a tenth of an inch or less and as you go up in
elevation, look for totals to be closer to 0.20 to 0.30 inches. Most
of the accumulating snow will be above 6500 feet this time around
with about 1-3" in the forecast. Between 6000 and 6500 feet some
snow will likely mix in, but accumulations will be light, if at all.
As temperatures fall to near or just below freezing in the Snake
River Plain early Tuesday, we could even see a few flurries mix in,
but accumulation is not expected. Wind will also be an impact with
this cold front. Wind gusts increase to 20 to 30 mph by this
afternoon with stronger gusts of 30-40 mph are expected with FROPA
and just behind the front, especially overnight into Tuesday. These
winds are just below Wind Advisory criteria with about a 15 to 20
percent chance of gusts reaching 45 mph out across the INL area and
40 to 50 percent chance of reaching 45 mph in the higher elevations
in the South Hills and just east of Idaho Falls. The potential for
travel impacts due to 45 mph wind gusts is highest along I-84 from
the 84/86 split down to the Utah state line, our typical windy down-
sloping spot. Of course, the cold front will drop temperatures about
10 degrees from today to tomorrow. Meaning most will go from mid 50s
to mid 60s today to mid 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday afternoon.

For the most part, Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning will
be mainly dry and temperatures will slowly warm up again into the
mid 50s and low 60s. A stronger low will begin to impact Eastern
Idaho on Friday and bring showers on and off throughout the weekend
along with some cooler temperatures again. There are still details
for the models to iron out with how this system will move and how
much precipitation we will actually see.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

No fog development yet this morning, but the potential remains
for the next few hours, so have kept VCFG at IDA. However, it is
with little confidence. Winds will gradually increase throughout
the day as a cold front approaches and will be strongest this
evening with FROPA with gusts around 30kts at PIH and IDA and
around 20kts at the other sites. Showers are also in the
forecast with this system and while current forecasts still show
VFR CIGs and VIS, this partly hinges on precipitation type,
especially at SUN and DIJ. While most of the precipitation is
expected to fall as rain, temperatures drop late tonight/early
Tuesday morning and there will be an hour or two window where
temperatures fall to or just below freezing before precipitation
tapers off.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Look for increasing wind gusts today ahead of and behind the cold
front passage. By mid afternoon, wind gusts will be 20-30 mph across
much of the area with 30-40 mph gusts across the Snake River Plain
and across the Arco Desert overnight into Tuesday with some locally
higher gusts to 45 mph at times. It will remain breezy through
Tuesday. With the cold front, rain chances return as early as this
afternoon in the Central Mountains and spread eastward through the
evening and overnight. QPF will range from 0.05-0.15" with higher
totals in the mountains and some parts of the eastern Magic Valley
and South Hills seeing little to no precipitation at all. Any snow
accumulation of a few inches generally remains above 6500 ft with
less than an inch between 6000 and 6500 ft. Highs range from mid 50s
to mid 60s today and will be about 10 degrees colder for
tomorrow.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...AMM