274
FXUS65 KPIH 291405
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
805 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture will keep showers and storms around through
  Thursday

- Hotter temperatures and very dry conditions return heading
  into the weekend, including Heat Risk impacts. Saturday
  expected to be hottest day with many locations at 100 degrees.

- Critical to near-criticial fire weather conditions expected
  for the next several days

- Wildfire smoke will continue to produce poor air quality
  especially in areas closer to central and western Idaho

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Scattered thunderstorm coverage appears likely later this
afternoon and evening across portions of southern and eastern
Idaho so a Red Flag Warning has been issued. Some potential for
early AM clouds and smoke to limit potential instability but
coverage still seems widespread enough in hi-res model output to
support issuance. Lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the
primary concern with the latter potentially as high as 45-55 mph
with the strongest of storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Monsoon moisture remains in place through Thursday, with the
deepest moisture across eastern Idaho for today. Today will a
bit of a higher risk of decent downpours vs tomorrow. Where
storms fire today, the risk of gusts over 35 mph is likely with
strongest gusts potentially peaking around 55-60 mph.
Thunderstorm coverage is going to be dependent on where we see
more sun breaks today, as smoke is still around in some places
and/or we can overcome morning cloud cover. Going into tomorrow,
we are going to maintain isolated overnight storms (similar to
this morning), and 15-25% coverage tomorrow. There is a 25-50%
chance for gusts over 35 mph, potentially peaking at 45-50 mph.
Temperatures will be cooler today with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s, pushing tomorrow through the 80s into the mid 90s in
some locations.

Friday and Saturday still look hot, very dry, and breezy.
Temperatures will be in the low 90s for even "cooler valleys"
this time of year with warmer spots pushing low to mid 100s.
This will rapidly increase HeatRisk impacts across most of
central and eastern Idaho. The stretch is short, but still
important enough to take precautions to prevent heat-related
issues and also check on those more vulnerable in these
conditions. We do see temperatures dropping heading into next
week, BUT it will remain really dry and breezy at times. This is
the result of the ridge breaking down, but at the moment the
flow remains more westerly vs. returning to southwesterly. This
will keep drier air in place. Temperatures actually return to
AVERAGE for beginning of August.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 449 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

We will see a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm
coverage later today, which will shift to the northeast and
continue through early evening. Thunderstorm gusts up to 45kts
are possible, along with with brief bursts of rain that may
reduce visibility to MVFR. We have maintained PROB30 for all
sites EXCEPT SUN where the chance potentially remains just low
enough to not mentioned in the current set of TAFS. By late
evening, all TAF sites should be clear of any showers or storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Monsoon moisture remains in place through tomorrow. We will
areas across higher terrain that MAY reach scattered coverage.
Confidence is low at the moment due to smoke potentially keeping
instability down, as well as morning cloud cover and waiting for
cloud breaks to develop. Thunderstorm gusts over 35 mph are
likely pretty much over all of central and eastern Idaho. Like
yesterday, we could see a few storms with peak gusts near 60
mph. We will maintain isolated coverage through most of the
night, with a bit of resurgence tomorrow across the central
mountains and Zone 413 in the southeast corner. Thunderstorm
coverage should remain isolated based on the latest trends.
Today will see more of a mix of wet and dry storms, with
stronger storms producing decent burst of rain. Thursday`s
storms will be mostly dry.

We quickly dry out starting Friday with very dry air in place
heading into next week. The main impact Friday will be
increasing HeatRisk impacts for crews. Saturday will be the
hottest day, with some mountain locations seeing highs in the
80s to near 90. Valley locations will be in the mid 90s to mid
100s. Winds increase Saturday, with critical fire weather
conditions over most areas minus Zone 413 based on the latest
forecast. Gusts will be 25-45 mph elsewhere single digit and low
teen afternoon humidity. We will a classic ridge breakdown
pattern Sunday as low pressure remains to our north, but keeps
fairly dry air in place with strong winds expected. Winds
exceeding threshold for critical fire weather conditions are
likely going to be everywhere with gusts of 25-45 mph once
again. Temperatures briefly drop back to around AVERAGE, but
warm again next week slowly. Winds will back off a bit, but
humidity will remain low, including areas of poor overnight
recovery. In fact, a return to poor overnight recovery will
likely be a daily issue after tonight.

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 1212 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Air quality has improved across the eastern half of the region
and some of the Air Quality Advisories have been canceled
accordingly but still linger across the western half which
includes the Magic Valley, parts of the Arco Desert and
throughout the central mountains. See the alerts from Idaho DEQ
for additional information.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for IDZ051-052-
055>057-067>075.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ410-411-413-427.

&&

$$

UPDATE...McKaughan
DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes
AIR QUALITY...McKaughan