574
FXUS65 KPIH 061750
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1050 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few snow showers will be possible throughout tonight, but
  most areas will be dry with some sunshine today.

- Light rain and snow picks up again Sunday afternoon for many
  locations. Precipitation threat continues each period through
  at least Thursday.

- Windy to very windy conditions should peak today in the Snake
  River plain/eastern Magic Valley/southern hills and subside by
  evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Satellite imagery showing a break in the pattern currently. A
few showers remain possible across higher elevations today, but
QPF amounts should be minimal under the influence of drier air
aloft. Have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter
Storm Warnings for today, and tweaked QPF values lower in line
with early morning model guidance. Snow accumulations at higher
elevations calculate out to less than 3" even at ridge tops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Still quite a bit of reflectivity showing up on radars to the
west, so have extended the Warnings and Advisories for another 6
hours, when the QPF forecast diminishes to 0.01 or less for
nearly all areas. Light accumulations continue overnight and
then Sunday afternoon the accumulations start to increase, but
most accumulations are below 0.08 of an inch for each 6 hour
period, save for a few in the central Idaho mountains. That
light accretion should not warrant highlights for the rest of
this near-term period with limited areas on Sun/Sun night and
just a few more areas on Mon/Mon night.

The reason for the light accumulations is partially caused by
the continued mild temperatures for the time of year. Widespread
40s for highs in the Snake River plain and even middle to upper
30s for a location like Stanley indicate just how warm it is
expected to be. The cloud cover, except for tonight, will keep
overnight lows mild the subsequent nights in this period.

Another forecast element of concern is the windy to very windy
conditions in the Snake River plain, the eastern Magic Valley,
and the southern highlands. Since there is little vertical
mixing, the very strong wind aloft appears to be staying there,
away from the surface. The strongest winds are expected prior to
noon today, with a gradual dropoff overnight. By Sun morning,
it should return to 17KT/20mph or less sustained.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 159 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Cluster analysis indicates that about 65 to 75 percent of the
members indicate a continued warm 500mb anomaly with the storm
track staying right where it is, which puts eastern Idaho on the
warm side but very close to the storm track. The remainder of
the solutions pump up the upper level ridge on the coast to push
the storm track farther north and away from eastern Idaho, or
maybe just brush the northern edge of the forecast area. In
short, there is no high energy trough to break this down and
return cold temperatures and bring a massive snow storm in the
classic style. So this upper level northwest flow continues for
at least another week. Another surge of moisture occurs on Tue
night/Wed/Wed night. However, the temperatures appear to peak
with this feature, with Pocatello airport forecast to be in the
mid-50s! Not a record, but close. Even Stanley may warm to the
low 40s for a peak on Tue. Not good news for snow-makers, but
the precipitation will make up for an incredibly dry autumn.

One concern will be the wind. The GFS guidance has been
consistently forecasting a Wind Advisory/High Wind Warning event
with this mid-week storm mentioned above. The ECMWF is also very
strong and would verify a Wind Advisory.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1047 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Overall will have VFR conditions other than DIJ. Here will be
the main impacts. Have tempo MVFR with occasional snow and rain
showers and then MVFR after 06Z with at least vicinity showers.
SUN, PIH, IDA and BYI will be VFR through 18Z Sunday. 20 to 30
mph wind gusts expected through 01Z at BYI, PIH and IDA as well
today.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DMH
SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...GK