889
FXUS65 KPIH 241556
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
956 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Surging Heat & Heat Advisory Today: A building Four Corners
  ridge will push temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90s today
  through early next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect today
  for lower elevationsincluding the Snake Plain, Magic Valley,
  Arco Desert, Shoshone, and South Hills  where highs will
  reach 95F to 100F.

- Shift to Mixed Wet/Dry Storms: Isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms this afternoon across the entirety of the
  forecast area will be capable of gusty outflows ranging 40 to
  50 mph and small to moderate hail.

- Saturday Shortwave & Gusty Winds: A passing shortwave on
  Saturday will briefly elevate shower and thunderstorm chances
  while generating widespread wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. This
  could lead to Red Flag Conditions for parts of eastern Idaho.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Issued a Red Flag Warning for Fire Zone 427 as latest hi-res
model guidance shows increasing potential for scattered
thunderstorm coverage across the area. Similar conditions may
exist over a larger area tomorrow with a more widespread RFW
potentially being needed for parts of eastern Idaho on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Early morning radar shows several showers and thunderstorms working
northeastward through the CWA. Within a couple of hours, we should
see a break in activity ahead of the afternoon push. The latest CAMs
feature increased storm coverage this afternoon than previous runs.
Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer as they increase to
well-above normal again in the mid- to upper-90s across the low
elevations and 80s in the mid-elevations and mountain valleys. A
HEAT ADVISORY remains in effect today for many of our valley
locations, including the Snake River Plain, eastern Magic Valley,
Arco Desert, Shoshone region, and South Hills. Daytime temperature
will remain fairly stable through the entirety of the forecast
period. A shortwave on Saturday will bring increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms in an otherwise dry-leaning pattern. Winds
will also increase on Saturday with many areas expected to observe
30 to 40 mph gusts. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are
anticipated over the next couple of days whether it be for scattered
thunderstorms or the combination of low min RH and winds as we
continue to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Isolated to scattered convection will return to Southeast Idaho this
afternoon, along with wind gusts 20 to 30 mph. Storms will be
capable of outflow winds 40 to 50 mph and heavy rainfall. Have
included PROB30s for all sites between 21z Friday and 02z
Saturday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ051>057.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ427.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AMM
DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp