144
FXUS65 KPIH 030543
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1043 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of snow ending tonight.

- After a break Wednesday, light snow and occasional periods of
  rain return Wednesday night and continue on and off through
  the weekend.

- Windy to very windy conditions probable Friday afternoon
  through Saturday night for the Snake River plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1240 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

An upper level trof will slide through Idaho this evening with
cold front pushing south and a north to south moving band of
precipitation expected to develop. Generally 1 to 3 inches of
snow is the most likely amount in the southern and eastern
mountains with locally heavier amounts in the mountains south of
Burley. Expecting up to an inch in the Snake River Plain
including Idaho Falls, Blackfoot and Pocatello. At those sites
near 100 percent chance for over 0.1 inch and around 20 percent
chance for more than an inch.  Expecting some minor traffic
impacts after sunset with the potential for some snow covered
roads. It will turn much colder tonight with lows in the teens
and 20s with snow ending after midnight. Wednesday will be dry
and cool with highs slightly below normal in the 20s to low 30s
mountains and low to mid 30s valleys. Light snow showers will
return to the eastern mountains late Wednesday night but no
impacts expected. Lows Wednesday night again in the teens and
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

The long term forecast period remains an active one. On Friday, our
next wave of moisture will be moving into Eastern Idaho and bringing
a mix of rain and snow showers with it. Highs on Friday will range
from low to mid 30s in the upper Snake River Plain and Eastern
Highlands to low to mid 40s in the eastern Magic Valley and lower
Snake River Plain, hence the mix of rain and snow showers. There
looks to be a short break in the activity on Friday evening before
the next wave moves in from the northwest for Saturday before
another short break Sunday morning. Afternoon highs continue to be
above freezing for many on Saturday, but some of the warmer
temperatures also coincide with some drier periods throughout the
timeframe. All in all, let`s take a look at some preliminary,
potential snow amounts for this Friday/Saturday snowfall. Of course,
it comes with the caveat that it will chance over the next several
days! For now, the NBM is showing about a 10 to 15 percent chance of
over an inch of snow in Pocatello and Idaho Falls and about a 10
percent chance of two inches of snow in Rexburg. There`s about a 30
to 40 percent chance of at least 4 inches in Stanley and about a 60
percent chance of the same in Driggs. It also shows about a 15 to 20
percent chance of 6 inches of snow in Stanley and Driggs. Looking at
some of our passes, there is about a 40 to 50 percent chance of 8
inches of snow for Galena Summit and Pine Creek Pass and a 70
percent chance of 12 inches of snow at Emigration Summit. Again,
these numbers and probability WILL change over the next few days,
but Friday/Saturday is looking like a solid snowfall for our passes
and mountains. Also of note, winds will increase with this wave,
too, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM MST Tue Dec 2 2025

Snowfall is in the process of ending over the next 1-2 hours at KDIJ
and KBYI, with most sites trending back toward VFR cigs/vsbys
thereafter. The exception will be KBYI where guidance continues to
indicate they will be socked in with IFR low stratus overnight into
Wednesday morning along with potentially some nearby fog/mist. We
continue to tweak anticipated timing on this. KPIH and KSUN will be
right on the edge of the favored area for fog/stratus at times, with
some hints of this included in their TAFs but low confidence on
introducing any predominant impacts at this time. Clouds trend
toward FEW as Wednesday progresses.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GK
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...01