461
FXUS65 KPIH 011945
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
145 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storm possible Thursday in the central Mountains

- Temperatures briefly warm up tomorrow

- Showers, storms and much colder temperatures heading into the
  weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds
streaking across the region as a potent upper level trough moves
closer to the Pac NW coast. Temperatures this afternoon are
generally in the 60s but the southwesterly flow will become enhanced
tomorrow ahead of the trough which will allow temps, at least in the
lower valleys, to climb into the low to maybe mid 70s tomorrow
afternoon. Things will take a drastic downward trend after but more
on that shortly. Not expecting much in the way of precip today as hi-
res CAMs show maybe a very light sprinkle potential across the
eastern highlands this afternoon and evening but that`s about it.
They do show precip chances increasing during the AM hours tomorrow
across the central mountains however as we begin to feel the
influence from the aforementioned trough. Coverage will be pretty
hit-or-miss for the first half of the day with increasing coverage
as we get towards the evening and overnight into Friday as a cold
front approaches the region. Rainfall totals Thursday will be
generally light with amounts expected to be between 0.10 to 0.25
inches in the central mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Much more widespread precipitation is expected throughout the area
on Friday and especially into Saturday as the upper level trough
moves closer to the region with Saturday looking like the wettest
day of the period. Still a bit of uncertainty on the exact track the
low takes and the QPF forecast remains a bit tricky. Nevertheless,
expect MUCH colder temperatures for the weekend throughout all of
eastern Idaho. Friday will be a mixed bag on the temperature front
with 50s and 60s across the western half with 60s and 70s across the
eastern half. Saturday will be a different story through with
widespread clouds and precip and the upper low dropping H5 heights
significantly. Daytime highs will be in the 40s and 50s for the
weekend with Saturday looking like a rather raw day across eastern
Idaho. The good news is that as this feature departs at the start of
the work week, things look to dry out with a slow warmup expected as
we get into next week. Temps will likely stay on the cooler side of
normal, just barely, which is still generally pleasant for most.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

We will see showers and a few storms around through tomorrow.
Unless a stronger shower or storm pops up directly over any
particular TAF site, look for VFR weather. The only airport we
have VCSH in for is SUN and that has been continued from the
previous set of forecasts. Due to limited coverage, we removed
any mention for other TAFs. Right now, coverage and/or
confidence is too low to even include PROB30.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025

Some pockets of showers and storms will impact
central and eastern Idaho through tomorrow evening. The next period
of wet conditions will be early Friday into Sunday, with the bulk of
the moisture falling Friday morning through Sunday morning. Trends
show the band of much heavier precipitation over the central
mountains is 1) holding off 6-12 hours and 2) producing lower
amounts.  The latter is likely due to expected fluctuations in what
the models are cranking out that far out. The slower trend is not
surprising. The track of the closed low (within split flow) will
ultimately determine where higher amounts of precipitation will
fall. We are still expecting a few inches of wet snow in the
mountains, especially above 8500ft. If we can heavier precipitation
to fall and the coldest part of the storm to track move over the
state, snow levels and accumulations could easily be 500-1000ft
lower in some places. The latest Blend of Models forecast has highs
over the weekend in the 50s down low and 30s/40s in the high
country. Trends in precipitation amounts right now are in 0.50-1.25"
range for the mountains and up to 0.60" for portions of the Snake
Plain. Earlier higher amounts for the central mountains where closer
1.5-2.5" range, but those were based on higher precipitation totals
from WPC. Beyond the weekend, more precipitation is possible
depending on the track of the next low across the state.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes