062
FXUS65 KPIH 170327
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
927 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through next week for more
  showers and thunderstorms. Friday looks to be the day with the
  most widespread activity this week.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds.
  With the potential for heavy downpours Friday a flash flood
  watch is in effect Friday afternoon and evening for the Wapiti
  Burn Scar near Stanley.

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate
  based on early day cloud cover

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Pattern remains unchanged with a long period of monsoonal
moisture transported north into Idaho with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms daily through next week. Tomorrow will be the
most widespread day of the storms in the short term with the
highest likelihood of both showers, measurable rain and
thunderstorms. Although will see isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms this evening as well. The most likely
dry days will be over the weekend Saturday and Sunday with the
next period of likely organized convection Tuesday through next
Thursday. Very warm temperatures will continue with highs mainly
in the 80s mountains and 90s valleys through the period. Some
days with extensive cloud cover may turn out a bit cooler.
Generally higher humidity than is normally seen in southeast
Idaho will also continue through the next 8 days. Winds for the
next week are expected to remain mainly light and not impactful
other than near any thunderstorm activity and outflow boundaries.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 927 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Watching a storm headed towards SUN this evening. If it holds
together it will likely exit SUN after 06z. Convection trying to
bubble up from Nevada is concerning. Most models show this
weakening or dissipating. Still given the air mass in place
could easily see it continuing through the night. Felt like
starting with VCSH for the 06z set at most sites is a good start
and then we can amend if lightning pops up of the storms hold
together. Main action is still tomorrow afternoon and continue
the PROB30 for storms on station with gusts to 30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1231 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A nearly stationary weather pattern has set up with high pressure
over the central Rockies and low pressure off the Pacific Northwest
coast. The southerly flow continue to bring up surges of moist and
unstable air into southern Idaho. Today had a lot of instability
and low level dryness, but for tomorrow there is not as intense
instability but greater moisture and more widespread coverage is
expected. On Saturday, the upper level wind becomes more southwest
and this should bring in drier and less unstable air, but still with
thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and evening will have
potential to be wet in the southern half of the Salmon-Challis
NF and the northern half of the northern Sawtooth NF, but
outside of that should easily be dry thunderstorms.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for IDZ411-413-
422-427-475-476.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...Messick