186
FXUS65 KPIH 171104
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
504 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through next week for more
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds.
  With the potential for heavy downpours Friday a flash flood
  watch is in effect Friday afternoon and evening for the Wapiti
  Burn Scar near Stanley

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate
  based on early day cloud cover

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoon moisture peaks over central eastern Idaho, at least for
this round. We have ongoing clouds, showers, and thunderstorms
this morning...with increasing chances later today. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible along with some storms producing
gusts over 35 mph (30-70% chance) with gusts in some areas
approaching 55-60 mph. We also will likely see an increasing
potential for some hail, mainly small hail. There is a MARGINAL
RISK over much of central and eastern Idaho because of this
potential. A complicating factor which COULD limit locally heavy
rainfall, hail, and wind is early cloud cover. Instead of a more
widespread issue, it may end up being more isolated. In reality,
we will need to see where we can get cloud breaks and maximize
instability. As expected, deeper monsoon moisture temporarily is
displaced to our east as low pressure swings by to the north and
west. We will see more showers and storms Saturday, however
coverage will be more confined to the central mountains, eastern
highlands, and south of the Snake Plain across higher
elevations. Of course, we will need to watch for any issues with
outflow boundaries and storms popping up along those elsewhere.
There is currently a 30-60% chance for gusts over 35 mph mainly
across the central mountains and along the Utah border. Sunday
looks dry, if you believe the Blend of Models which keeps any
chance of showers and thunderstorms below 10%. There will be
lingering moisture, albeit less than today or tomorrow, so the
likely scenario will be isolated dry storms along the Montana
border and highlands south of the Snake Plain. Where we get more
sunshine today through the weekend, look for highs well into
the 90s. Where clouds are more prevalent, it will likely remain
in the 80s...but that still is ABOVE AVERAGE.


Starting Monday, the ridge begins to shift back to the north and
west...pulling deeper monsoon moisture back across Idaho. It
make take an extra day or two for the much deeper surge to
return, but the trend is to increase the chance of showers and
storms again next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Overnight showers and thunderstorms continue to lift northeast
this morning. We are expecting coverage to expand through the
day and eventually back to impacting all TAF sites at some
points through this evening. We have VCSH, VCTS and PROB30
groups to cover the gamut expected. Some storms may produce
winds upwards of 45kts, if not higher, this afternoon and
evening. Stronger storms may also produce heavy rain and/or
small hail. Storms with heavier rainfall will likely drop to
MVFR due to lower visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Monsoon moisture is entrenched over central and eastern Idaho
today. There is ongoing showers and thunderstorms this morning,
with coverage expanding during the day. RED FLAG WARNINGS remain
in place across higher elevations today for scattered
thunderstorms. We will leave those in place despite some
uncertainty now with early day cloud cover and ongoing showers
and storms. In reality, any higher coverage for lightning will
likely be dependent on where cloud breaks occur. This will also
determine the potential for gusty outflow winds and locally
heavy rainfall with stronger storms that can develop. There is a
30-70% chance of gusts over 35 mph, with peak gusts possibly
reaching 55-60 mph. We are also expecting some smaller sized
hail today. The airmass dries out a bit over the weekend as low
pressure to our north and west temporarily shunts deeper
moisture to the east. Showers and storms on Saturday will most
likely remain over higher elevations, with any development
across 410 and 425 relying on outflow boundaries for a focus.
There is a 30-60% chance tomorrow for gusts over 35 mph and we
could still see some locally heavy rainfall with a few storms.
Sunday SUPPOSEDLY ends up pretty dry with storm chances under
10%. This seems to be a bit aggressive, in terms of drying
things out, and we may end up actually with at least isolated
storms closer to the Montana and Utah borders.

The ridge still appears to shift back to the north and west next
week, with deeper monsoon moisture returning starting Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ411-413-422-427-475-476.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes