227
FXUS65 KPIH 111020
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
320 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect warmer temperatures to remain through at least the
  weekend

- Minimal chance of rain or snow closer to the Montana border
  and Lemhi County until early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 101 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Quieter weather arrives over the area today. With the storm
track shifting north winds will be lighter. But we will still
see gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range throughout the area this
afternoon. Winds should weaken this evening, while maintaining a
5 to 10 mph sustained wind through the night in many locales.
Parts of the central mountains and around Island Park could get
clipped with some light precipitation today, but emphasis on
light amounts if at all. Temperatures today are very comparable
to what we experienced on Wednesday with highs in the Snake
Plain and Magic Valley in the upper 40s to mid 50s while
communities in the mountains and highlands will generally see
40s. However, the climate records are higher today so we
probably won`t approach the records today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

The extremely mild December looks to continue through the extended
with temperatures continue to run 15-20 degrees above normal into
the middle part of next week. Friday looks dry just about everywhere
aside from some isolated rain/snow shower potential around the
Island Park area. High pressure ridge builds over the area through
the weekend keeping everyone dry with the unusually warm airmass
remaining in place. Daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s are
expected in the lower valleys. To put this into perspective just a
bit, our normal highs should be within a few degrees of freezing at
Pocatello and Idaho Falls that goes to show you just how warm it`ll
be for this time of year! The ridge does look to get suppressed as
we move into the work week with the upper flow becoming more zonal
in nature. This will likely allow a bit more moisture to move into
the area from the Pacific which will lead to increased cloud cover
and perhaps the introduction of some precip chances once again. Still
a bit of model variability however with respect to the latter
however. Either way, the moisture source remains very mild in nature
so snow levels are still 6500-7000 ft so most areas outside of the
high country would still see a December rain event with any precip
that does fall during the period. Things may cool down ever so
slightly as we move into the middle part of the week which could
lower levels to around 6000 ft by Wednesday. A tight pressure
gradient looks to set up in the Tue-Wed timeframe which would allow
for some breezy days, especially in the Snake Plain. It really does
seem more like October throughout the extended period as opposed to
December.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Expect gusts at PIH, IDA and BYI once again today although not
as strong as previous days. Think SUN may turn upvalley for a
couple hours before shifting to a crosswind mid to late
afternoon. Otherwise mainly looking at mid to high level clouds
drifting through the region today.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...13