215
FXUS65 KPIH 161730
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1030 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather with low confidence of timing and amount for
  any location today through Tuesday night.

- Cooler temperatures, but still above climatic normals for the
  time of year through the period.

- Threat of precipitation is less, generally, starting Tuesday,
  and continuing low for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 111 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Weak warm front entered the southern half of the forecast area,
but has produced very little in terms of clouds and
precipitation, but has kept temperatures mild over that region,
which extends from east of Pocatello over into the Magic Valley.
So temperatures in the northern half are just slightly higher at
this time. The approach of the front from the south means that
to the north there is some northerly wind, which is still gusty
in the major NW-SE oriented valleys there, such as the Wood
River Valley. Otherwise, the nature of the warm front with
warming aloft means more stable conditions and outside of these
valleys winds are light and variable.

A look across deterministic guidance and the averaged NBM/WPC
guidance shows that the precipitation amounts and timing,
especially through the first 48 hours of the forecast, through
Mon night, should be taken with a huge rain of salt. Some
periods in the southern range has rather large amounts of
precipitation, but only in some of the guidance. The only real
consistency is that starting Tue the overall amounts and the
variation decrease, but that timing is still a low confidence
situation.

Cloud cover will keep temperatures mild, and the warm air mass
moving in behind this warm front will keep temperatures well
above climatic normals; just not at the records of the recent
days. This is true through this period and into the extended.

Wind is light through this period, with weak association with
the slope-valley effect. This makes sense with the cloud cover.
Only today as any wind approaching gusty, mainly due to the
closeness of the warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Cluster products were not available for analysis. However,
overnight guidance shows a wind diversity of solutions. For
example the deterministic guidance from the American GFS
indicates just below mentionable precipitation risk at 13
percent for Thu at the Pocatello Airport, while the ECMWF
guidance has likely probabilities on the very same period. This
spread is likely due to lack of specific equations for the
autumn period with some guidance, where equations are based on
"summer" and "winter." So the forecast for precipitation for
this period is subject to major changes as time progresses.

There is some agreement that near to above normal temperatures
are likely both for highs and lows, with no forecast below
normal.

There may be another feature arriving next weekend that will
kick up the wind for Sat, 22 November.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1012 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

We will see multiple rounds of showers through the next 24
hours. We will likely see periods of MVFR/IFR conditions during
periods of precipitation. The concern, and lack of high
confidence, is we will see any improvement in between rounds.
Cross sections continue to show a lot of left over moisture at
the surface, so any improvement may be more determined by wind
and/or where any upslope or downslope component takes place. We
do expect some gusty winds at times. We basically have -SHRA or
VCSH during more likely periods where moisture may fall. We
continue to walk the line between scattered to broken MVFR/IFR
conditions at other times. Needless to say confidence is not
high enough to go solidly one way or the other, unfortunately.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...Messick
AVIATION...Keyes