125
FXUS65 KPIH 110335
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
935 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and dry afternoon surface conditions continue to bring
  Red Flag conditions to portions of East Idaho today, and
  potentially Friday as well.

- Light showers possible overnight into Friday morning across
  the eastern highlands, then a higher potential for
  precipitation Saturday night into Sunday.

- Cooling trend expected into the weekend, with coolest
  temperatures expected Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Satellite imagery shows broad but shallow upper trough across
Western Canada this afternoon, with pair of shortwaves across
the PacNW. Moisture spreading from Oregon into Idaho today,
increasing clouds across the region. Upstream radar shows weak
showers across northern Nevada, and today`s High-res CAMs bring
threat of weak showers across the region this evening and
overnight. Surface humidities are very dry, so believe threat
for actual precipitation is low until lower overnight
temperatures and deeper moisture can improve the potential.
Instability is unimpressive, so no thunderstorm threat expected.
Even at that, precipitation should mainly be limited to
portions of the eastern highlands, and amounts will remain
light. Winds today are struggling to develop, but HRRR still
pinpointing a later afternoon into evening peak for speeds.
Similar wind conditions are expected for tomorrow, absent the
precipitation, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

Deeper shortwave associated with the broad upper low shifts into
Idaho Saturday, bringing an increased chance of precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday, mainly for northern zones across the
central mountains and Divide. Temperatures cool significantly
into Sunday with highs generally expected to range in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Headed into next work week, there are timing
and amplitude differences between operational GFS and ECMWF runs
this morning. Ensembles and ensemble clusters maintain a broad
trough across the western US, trending toward a split flow
pattern towards the latter half of the week, leading to a fair
amount of uncertainty toward temperature and precipitation
trends throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 932 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Virga showers will work through the area tonight. Expecting no
additional impacts from these showers. Winds may stay gusty
around IDA through the night but should be relatively light
elsewhere. Expect breezy conditions once again Friday afternoon
with gusts to 30kts possible in at PIH/IDA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 932 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Issued another red flag warning for zone 410 and a fire weather
watch for 427 for Saturday afternoon. Both are somewhat
marginal. Winds look solid tomorrow across 410 but humidities
are near critical. Given that its late season with mostly dry
fuels and headed into a weekend. The probability of a large fire
developing seems higher than it might otherwise be. The wind
field moves south for Saturday afternoon with marginal
humidities once again over zone 427. Once again, late year dry
fuels and weekend activities potentially driving the potential
for large fires was the main decisions in issuing a fire weather
watch.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for IDZ410.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for IDZ427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan