404
FXUS65 KPIH 131906
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
106 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will return and gradually increase through Tuesday

- Colder temperatures will come back with better chance of rain
  and snow midweek

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A few showers are expected this evening across the central
mountains before we see a rapid increase in development
overnight. Multiple bands of showers with a few thunderstorms
are likely Tuesday into Tuesday night. At that point, we may see
some enhancement from the Wood River Valley up through Island
Park due to decent south to southeast flow across our part of
the state. Any accumulating snow should remain above 7000ft,
although we may need to watch where colder air stays in valley
locations to see if we end up with at least rain mixing with
snow...even if no accumulation takes place. Right now, this
pattern isn`t conducive to seeing any surprise pockets of
freezing rain where it stays colder overnight. Highs Tuesday
should remain in the mid 50s to mid 60s in those lower valleys.
We could see if eek out into the upper 60s for areas favored
with southerly downslope conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Wednesday begins with a closed upper low in place across central
Nevada with broad upper troughing in place across eastern Idaho.
This will set the stage for a few unsettled days on Wednesday and
Thursday with widespread precipitation expected throughout the area
on Wednesday. Temperatures will be well below normal, by 10 to 15
degrees, throughout eastern Idaho with highs only in the 40s to
lower 50s. Snow levels will be running around 7000-7500 feet during
this period so expect some accumulations across the higher terrain
of the central mountains and eastern highlands where some Winter
Weather Advisories may be needed above the aforementioned elevations
for accumulations. Stay tuned. Thursday looks like the coldest day
with the low nearly centered near the Bear Lake region with areas
near the Wyoming border perhaps staying in the 30s to lower 40s for
highs, with 40s and low 50s elsewhere. Precip will slowly taper off
from west to east throughout the day as the low starts to move east
of the area over the course of the day.

Ridging looks to quickly build over the area on Friday and
continuing into the weekend which should allow temps to warm up a
few degrees each day returning closer to seasonal norms by Sunday.
Precip chances look limited to the higher terrain during this period
although another deep upper trough appears poised to approach the
region on Monday. As such, expect clouds to be on the increase
during the afternoon hours Sunday and into the overnight hours
Monday morning as another system looks to bring much cooler
temperatures along with rain/snow chances for the early part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions expected to continue this afternoon and evening with
gradually lowering CIGs expected ahead of an approaching upper level
trough that will bring widespread precip to the region as early as
overnight tonight but more likely after daybreak tomorrow and
continuing into the day on Wednesday. As such, expect BKN/OVC CIGs
as we get into the early morning hours on Tuesday with VCSH now in
the forecast at all terminals. For now, maintained VFR CIGs/VSBYs
but there will certainly be a period where some MVFR conditions may
be seen with -SHRA but confidence is too low in timing and placement
to include any TEMPOs at this time. Winds do look to remain light
through the period however despite the incoming weather system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Will see mainly dry conditions today as flow aloft turns
southerly with significant warming with high temperatures 10 to
15 degrees warmer compared to Sunday. Rain showers will return
tonight with more significant precipitation on Wednesday and
Thursday with snow levels in the 7 to 8 thousand foot range. But
will have widespread wetting rains once again everywhere and
will see significant cooling again Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...01