973
FXUS65 KPIH 162238
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
438 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind advisories are in effect until 9 pm for much of the Snake
  River Plain and eastern Magic Valley

- Humidity below 15 percent will combine with this wind to
  create critical fire weather conditions that could lead to
  extreme fire behavior should a fire become established. A Red
  Flag Warning is in effect until 9 PM MDT for the affected
  area, which includes the fire weather zones that contain the
  Snake River and all zones south or east of the River, to the
  WY and UT/NV borders.

- Will have windy conditions Wednesday. Low humidity will recur
  Wednesday for similar weather hazards on Wednesday and
  Wednesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Main impact will be the winds both this afternoon and again on
Wednesday. Wind advisories are in effect for much of the Snake
Plain and Eastern Magic Valley. Expect gusts 35 to 45 mph much
of this afternoon and evening. Winds not expected to be quite as
strong Wednesday other than the Shoshone Lava Bed region and
Eastern Magic Valley, but will be breezy throughout southeast
Idaho once again. Will likely see a few wind advisories and Red
Flag Warnings once again. Will be slightly cooler Wednesday but
highs still 70s mountains and 80s valleys. Winds will be much
lighter Thursday mainly under 10 mph across the region. Highs
again in the 70s and 80s. Friday will potentially some high
temperatures into the lower 90s in the valleys once again.

The pattern will change a bit over the weekend as an upper level
wave will move through and return the chance for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday morning. Near normal
temperatures with 70s to lower 80s in more cloud cover. Dry
conditions return next week Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The main issue will be gusty winds persisting across central and
eastern Idaho. We will see them subside somewhat overnight, but
some gusts in the 15-25kt range are possible. Speeds will ramp
up again by afternoon, gusts of 20-35kts are possible. We are
actually looking at a general repeat at SUN tomorrow afternoon
where a strong westerly crosswind will impact the airport.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 433 PM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

RED FLAG WARNING continues for our Fire Weather Zones 410, 413, 425,
and 427 due to gusty winds and low RHs as a dry cold front sweeps
through the area over the 24 hours. Given that Wednesday`s forecast
will be nearly a repeat of today, look for another RED FLAG WARNING
to be issued this evening once today`s ends.

Wind gusts for this afternoon will range from  35 to 45 mph across
much of eastern Idaho with min RHs this afternoon around 10 to 15
percent in the eastern Magic Valley, South Hills, and lower Snake
River Plain. For Wednesday afternoon, min RHs will drop a couple of
percentage points and wind gusts will be just a bit lighter, but
still generally 30 to 40 mph with so locally higher gusts in the
eastern Magic Valley and South Hills, hence the RED FLAG WARNING on
Wednesday. Outside of the RFW areas, we sill see near critical fire
weather conditions throughout the Central Mountains in zones 422,
475, and 476. There will be pockets of min RHs around 10 to 15
percent and gusty winds around 25 mph, but it`s not quite widespread
enough to add it into the RFW for Wednesday.

By Thursday and Friday we finally get a break from our gusty winds,
but we will be watching a trough entering our CWA on Saturday that
will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ051>055.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413-
425-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...AMM