939
FXUS65 KPIH 142357
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
557 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More widespread showers with a few thunderstorms lingering
  into Thursday.

- Nearly all snow accumulation will remain above about 7,000
  feet, with limited travel impacts possible at a few passes.

- Colder temperatures return starting Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Multiple rounds of showers with a few thunderstorms will
continue as low pressure eventually moves across the southeast
corner tomorrow night. This morning, we saw snow falling down to
almost 6000ft (not accumulating though until you got to 7000ft
or higher) in some spots due to heavier bands and also heavier
showers and storm. Snow levels looked a bit higher tonight, but
feel what the official Blend of Models forecast was too high
again. We pushed it back toward the lowest end of the range.
For tonight, that puts them around 6500-7500ft across the
central mountains and between 7500-9000ft elsewhere. Of note,
that still is 500ft or more HIGHER than the actual lowest end of
the snow level range we could see. As the low moves across our
territory tomorrow night, we pushed snow levels down to around
6500-7000ft. That is still 300-500 HIGHER than the lowest end.
Even with lower snow levels, impactful snow below 9000ft doesn`t
appear to be a big issue at the moment. Current forecasts only
have through tomorrow night anywhere from a Trace to 2" for
anywhere above 7500ft, and anything above 6" well above our
9000ft threshold for an advisory or warning. Needless to say,
temperatures get much colder again. We should be about 10
degrees colder than today, valleys in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The day begins Thursday with an upper low centered near the far SE
corner of the Gem State. Thursday will remain well below normal
temperature wise with 40s and low 50s across the western half of the
area with 30s and 40s for our eastern zones (closer to the low).
We`ll see precip and clouds begin to taper off from west to east
throughout the day but areas along and east of I-15 will have to
wait until later in the afternoon or evening before conditions start
to improve. Cold temperatures in the eastern highlands will support
some accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain (above 7000 ft)
on Thursday. By daybreak Friday, upper level troughing will quickly
transition to a ridge allowing for a brief warming trend Friday into
Sunday with mostly dry conditions and mostly sunny weather through
the first part of the day on Sunday. Temperatures will remain on the
cooler side of normal Fri and Sat but get closer to seasonal norms
by Sunday but that`s when the weather pattern looks to change once
again. Models show a potent trough once again moving into the
Pacific NW  which will bring precip and clouds back into the
forecast for eastern Idaho by as early as Sunday afternoon but
especially for much of the day Monday and into Tuesday. Along with
the precip, we`ll see much colder temperatures once again for Monday
and Tuesday with highs running well below normal along with valley
rain/mountain snow chances. Could even see some valley precip change
over to snow Monday night into Tuesday AM but it`s still unclear how
much precip will remain by that point. Either way, an active fall
weather pattern is expected to continue across the region into the
third week of October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Moisture significantly increases around midnight for all TAF
sites as an upper level low moves south of our area over Nevada
and Utah tonight into Wednesday. The cloud cover and
precipitation will really increase after midnight tonight where
a prolonged period of OVC CIGs along with rain and maybe a few
thunderstorms is expected tonight through most of tomorrow
afternoon. As such, VFR conditions will deteriorate with MVFR
CIGs becoming increasingly likely for a good chunk of time
after midnight and continues through much of the day Wednesday.
Brief IFR conditions are possible during periods of heavier
rainfall. Winds do look to remain light through the period,
though gusts of around 15 to 20 mph are possible with any
heavier shower and thunderstorm outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

No broad fire weather concerns this week as low pressure rotates
across the Great Basin. Wetting rains and high elevation snow
are likely starting today in the Central Mountains, expanding
everywhere tonight and Wednesday. Showers linger Thursday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Keyes
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...01