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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
937 FXUS65 KPIH 162010 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 210 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday It`s been a pleasant, albeit cooler than normal, Sunday across eastern Idaho. Afternoon satellite imagery shows ample sunshine, for now, but this will change later this evening and into the day Monday. An U/L trough will continue to push south and east over the next 36 hours and should be centered across the Idaho panhandle by tomorrow afternoon. With this, we`ll see clouds, wind, precip and even colder temperatures for the day on Monday and into Tuesday. Showers spread into the central mountains around/just after midnight tonight, then showers and thunderstorms spread across mainly the northern half of East Idaho through the day Monday. Best chances for precip will be across the northern half of the area and this is certainly supported by hi-res CAMs. As we get into the lower Snake Plain, Magic Valley and down into the Bear Lake region, PoPs start to drop off quite a bit but we could still see an isolated shower, just about anywhere. Snow, yes snow, will be a concern across the higher terrain of the central mountains, generally above 7000 ft. but could see some light snowfall sneak into the Stanley and Island Park as well. Higher peaks could see some 2-6 inches of snow through Tuesday morning. Winds will pick up throughout the morning on Monday and a Wind Advisory has been issued across the Arco Desert and into the Snake Plain where winds in the 25-35 mph are expected for much of the day. Into the Magic Valley and towards Shoshone, it was a bit too marginal for an advisory but it`ll still be breezy (20-25 mph). A cold front will push through the area during the day tomorrow and will bring some unusually cold air into the for Tuesday AM. Since it is almost summer and given the high confidence of occurrence and potential agricultural impacts, went ahead and issued a Frost Advisory for Tuesday morning. More rural spots could even drop below freezing so a Freeze Warning isn`t out of the question if model guidance comes in colder over the next 24 hours. McKaughan .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday Showers and thunderstorms will persist Tuesday on the back side of the departing low. Temperatures will remain on the "cool" side, although still 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday. The rest of next week will remain unsettled. There will be multiple weak storms moving across the state, helping to trigger showers and thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Idaho. It will certainly be warmer later in the week, with a very quick return to 80s and 90s for the valleys. Keyes && .AVIATION... We will remain dry until tomorrow as a rather strong and cold area of low pressure swings across the state. Wind-wise, we will see 15-25kt sustained winds at all TAF sites except SUN...with gusts of 25-35kts expected. Winds of 15-25kts, including gusts, are possible at SUN. We will also see showers and thunderstorms developing through the day. We will see showers across the central mountains not too long before sunrise. We will need to watch for a more solid band developing along the front, with another round forming as the low itself swings across our area. For now, we will VCSH and/or VCTS in the TAFs. Keyes && .FIRE WEATHER... Cool and breezy conditions expected today ahead of another cold front that will arrive later today. Light precipitation will move in tonight with snow levels dropping to about 6500 feet. Accumulating snow is likely along ridgetops. Temperatures will decrease through Monday when the wind ramps up yet again. Wind gusts to 40 mph possible Monday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... The flood warning has been dropped for the Snake River as Heise as flooding is no longer expected as river levels continue to drop. Extended the warning for the Teton River at Driggs for another 24 hours but water levels are forecast to drop later tonight and the warning can likely be dropped tomorrow if the forecast comes to fruition. McKaughan && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM MDT Tuesday for IDZ051>055. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ052>054. && $$