372
FXUS65 KPIH 060927
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
327 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Fire Weather Watch continues for Sunday due to low relative
 humidity and strong, gusty winds.

-Isolated virga showers and mostly dry storms through the
 weekend.

-Better chance for widespread showers and storms Tuesday into
 Wednesday along with much cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

An area of low pressure is moving through the Pacific Northwest and
southwestern Canada this weekend which will bring a slow-moving cold
front through eastern Idaho. This cold front will bring gusty winds,
isolated virga showers/dry thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures
for Sunday. The probability of these virga showers and isolated dry
storms remains around 10 to 15 percent for much of the area, but
does increase to closer to 20 percent the farther north and
northeast you go, nearer to the Montana state line. With any virga
showers, the potential is there for gusts around 45 mph. Even
outside of any shower or storm activity, wind gusts will be around
20 to 35 mph with stronger gusts near 40 mph on ridge tops and out
across the Arco desert/Mud Lake area. Highs today will be a couple
of degrees cooler than yesterday, but still topping out around 80
degrees or so. Winds will be stronger on Sunday with more widespread
gusts of 40 to 50 mph, so we will likely need a WIND ADVISORY for
most of the Snake River Plain. In addition to the gusty winds, it
remains quite dry overall, so the FIRE WEATHER WATCH remains in
effect for Sunday at this point which will likely be converted into
a RED FLAG WARNING by the day shift crew today. Highs drop quite a
bit for Sunday with many of us not making it out of the 60s!

This system and cold front will be out of here by Monday and that
will be a bit of a "break" in between systems for us. Highs will
rebound into the 70s, dry conditions persist, and wind gusts return
to a more "typical" 20-30 mph. Tuesday into Wednesday another low
will move through the PNW and southwestern Canada to bring a better
chance for measurable rainfall to much of eastern Idaho and drop
afternoon highs into the 60s for Tuesday through Thursday. Winds
will remain breezy through this time, too.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Radar is picking up on some light returns out there early this
morning, though that is more likely the increased cloud cover as
a slow-moving cold front moves through eastern Idaho this
weekend. Short-range models are also picking up on that cold
front line and making it look a bit more impressive than what is
likely to be seen, but they are also picking up on a couple of
isolated thunderstorms moving through/near KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ
later this evening into early tonight from around 23Z to 04Z,
so have added that into the TAF for this issuance. Outside of
any isolated storm activity, look for gusts to around 25 kts
this afternoon with even stronger gusts of 30-40 kts on Sunday
afternoon. Even with the increased cloud cover VFR conditions
are expected throughout today and into Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH remains in effect for fire weather zones 425
and 425 on Sunday at this point, but will most likely be upgraded to
a RED FLAG WARNING later today. This is due to a slow-moving cold
front that is passing through eastern Idaho this weekend and
bringing strong, gusty winds. It will bring some isolated virga
showers/dry thunderstorms this afternoon and into Sunday, but little
to no liquid precipitation is expected out of any of this. Even min
RHs are generally in the 15 to 25 percent range today, which means
we will see NEAR CRITICAL fire weather conditions, but min RHs drop
significantly on Sunday, in the 10 to 15 percent range for most of
zones 425 and 427, hence the current headlines. Through parts of
zones 410, 413, and 476 we will remain near critical on Sunday, too.
With any isolated showers or storms we see today, there is the
potential for gusts of around 45 mph. Even outside of any of this
activity, it will be breezy with gusts of 30 to 40 mph in the
Central Mountains and across the Arco desert. Strong wind gusts
arrive on Sunday with more widespread gusts of 35 to nearly 50 mph
in zones 410, 411, 425, 427, and 476. It`s not until next Tuesday
into Wednesday that we see the potential for more widespread wetting
rains as a stronger system arrives.


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...AMM