582
FXUS65 KPIH 021634
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1034 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry weather and well above normal temperatures
  continue through most of the week.

- Patchy smoke will remain, especially northern areas, but
  conditions will gradually improve through week and,
  especially, the weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms will return to East Idaho by late
  week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

High pressure remains in place over the area with the ridge axis
over eastern Idaho. Expect mostly clear skies and overall light
winds today and tomorrow. High temperatures the next couple of
days will run in the 80s and low 90s, 5 to 10 degrees above
normal. Southerly flow will start moving into our western areas,
which will allow some moisture to start to move into the area.
The southern Hills/Albion mountains along with the Central
mountains will some afternoon cumulus development, but very
little, if any, precipitation is expected the next couple of
days. With southerly flow most smoke has left the area. There is
still some smoke/haze across our area but is mostly in valleys
across our northern areas. Expect air quality to continue to
improve through week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Forecast trend remains in place with a ridge of high pressure
through most of the week. Ensembles vary slightly in breakdown of
the ridge ahead of energy ejecting out of the Pacific low. Moisture
begins to encroach into the region by the weekend, but there`s still
a non-zero chance to see a thunderstorm or two Thursday.
Thunderstorm chances increase Friday into the weekend, with
strong support from the model blends. Expect temperatures above
normal through Friday, turning cooler for the weekend associated
with the increase in moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1031 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Look for VFR conditions in the next 24 hours. SUN and BYI will
still be sitting on the eastern edge of constant mid level
moisture streaming north into Idaho. There is still nothing
expected other than potential virga issues, but even then...the
risk of gusty downburst winds is VERY,VERY LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

High pressure will bring mostly clear skies, warmer
temperatures, and dry conditions early this week. Relative
humidity will be critical to near critical the next couple of
days with poor overnight recovery within the inversion layer.
Through Wednesday expect well above normal temperatures and
overall light winds. By mid week, monsoon moisture starts to
work its way back into the area. Look for very isolated mountain
showers and dry thunderstorms by Thursday afternoon (possibly
Wednesday afternoon) with increasing chances by Friday
afternoon. Models are still trending toward more likely chances
of showers and thunderstorms by the weekend, which will bring
more of a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...TW