433
FXUS65 KPIH 120006
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
606 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (virga) showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
  mainly southern and southeast highlands. Isolated
  thunderstorms once again Wednesday afternoon.

- Wildfire smoke will continue to impact the area on and off for
  through Wednesday. Overall improvement is expected by
  Thursday.

- Major pattern change with showers and thunderstorms expected
  Thursday into Saturday with much more widespread coverage with
  significant cooling occurring as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Seeing showers and isolated thunderstorms again in the southern
mountains this afternoon and evening. May see a few elsewhere
but mainly not expected to reach the ground in lower elevations.
Expect a return of isolated showers and thunderstorms once again
Wednesday afternoon and evening again southern mountains as well
as central mountains so areas beginning to increase. Will start
to see some cooling Wednesday with highs mainly in the 80s to
lower 90s low elevations and 70s and 80s mountains. The
monsoonal moisture is really expected to push into all of
southeast Idaho Thursday on strong southwest flow aloft with
high precipitation chances both Thursday and Friday. Likely
precipiation amounts of 0.10 to 0.50 in the eastern Magic Valley
and Snake River Plain and 0.25 to 0.80 inches in high elevations
the most likely amounts. There are of course very low percent
chances of more at some high elevation locations on both days.
Will be much cooler Thursday and Friday with low elevation highs
in the 70s and mountains mainly in the 60s. Precipitation will
diminish Saturday but still widespread in the eastern
mountains, with only isolated coverage Sunday through next
Tuesday. Will start to warm to near normal temperatures by early
next week with mainly 70s mountains and 80s valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are likely for all TAF sites through the period.
BYI could see some slightly reduced VIS due to smoke tomorrow
morning and SUN could see slightly reduced VIS due to smoke
tomorrow afternoon. Winds are around 15 to 20 kts for PIH, IDA,
DIJ, and SUN currently. Winds will back off for all TAF sites
between 2 and 3Z this evening. Could see vicinity showers this
evening for PIH, IDA, and DIJ with mid-level CIGS likely. With
monsoon moisture making its way into the area, thunderstorms
will be more widespread tomorrow afternoon than today. Models
are showing thunderstorms a little farther north tomorrow than
today. Have added a PROB30 for thunderstorms for PIH and DIJ for
tomorrow afternoon. May have to add a PROB30 for BYI and IDA as
well. Currently the HREF model is keeping thunderstorms just
south of each of BYI and IDA. Gusty outflow winds of 25 to 30
kts is likely tomorrow afternoon with any thunderstorms nearby.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Winds look a little less today than yesterday even though
humidity levels are still low. Will hold off on red flag
warnings for today. Isoalted storms are possible across the
southern and southeast highlands today and on Wednesday.
Thursday is tricky if we`ll actually see enough thunderstorm
coverage to warrant a red flag warning and if we do the storms
may be too wet to start many fires. Something to monitor over
the next day or two.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...GK
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp