232
FXUS65 KPIH 222330
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
530 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions through Saturday.

- Wildfire smoke across east Idaho improves today.

- Monsoon moisture lifting north late Saturday into Sunday will
  support the return of daily shower and thunderstorm chances
  into early next week as temperatures trend cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A couple of isolated showers and storms are passing through the far
southeastern corner of Idaho today down around the Bear Lake area as
building high pressure continues to pull up some moisture. Still,
most of our CWA will stay dry today. Highs reach the low to mid 90s
for many with afternoon wind gusts only 20 to 25 mph. The forecast
for Saturday will be nearly a repeat of today with highs just a
degree or two warmer, some isolated storms in the southeast corner,
and wind gusts around 20 mph.

An Air Quality Advisory remains in effect for Lemhi county which is
technically outside of our forecast zone, but illustrates that
impactful smoke is not too far away. In the Snake River Plain, we`ve
noticed the uptick in wildfire smoke around, but it remains high
enough up to not create impacts at the surface. This will continue
through the rest of today and tomorrow. Smoke will continue to be
more noticeable up north towards Stanley and Challis, especially as
we get into Saturday night/Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The seemingly endless pattern of hot and dry weather going back to
early July appears to be coming to an end as we move in to the final
week of August. The ridge over the Four Corners will shift south and
weaken in intensity beginning Sunday and a deep push of monsoonal
moisture will move into the region for much of next week. The
initial push looks to occur on Sunday. The most noticeable change,
initially, will be the increase in cloud cover area wide and we
certainly could see some isolated/scattered showers and storms
across the southern half of the forecast area but it looks like
we`ll have to wait until Monday to really see significantly higher
PoPs regionwide. From Monday afternoon through the day Thursday,
we`ll have a prolonged period of widespread cloud cover, precip
chances and cooler temperatures accordingly. Still seeing a pretty
wide spread amongst the model guidance with respect to temps and the
current forecast remains on the warmer side of guidance as the NBM
tends to have a hard time with a significant pattern change like
this. That being said, nudged things down ever so slightly but don`t
be surprised if forecast temps come in even cooler than currently
forecast over the days ahead. Still have some details to try to iron
out. Bottom line is expect our first chance for widespread wetting
rainfall in quite some time with daytime high temps also running on
the cooler side of normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

No aviation impacts through Saturday evening with widespread VFR
conditions. May see an increase in high and mid level clouds
later in day Saturday. Minimal wind impacts as well with some
afternoon increases to near 10 knots Saturday after 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Conditions remain hot and mostly dry throughout much of Eastern
Idaho today and Saturday. There will still be a few isolated storms
in the southeast corner of the state, mainly in Zone 413. Min RHs
are generally 10 to 20 percent across the entire area with afternoon
winds around 15 to 25 mph, so still remaining below Red Flag Warning
criteria. Saturday will be nearly a repeat with just a slight
increase in monsoon moisture lifting northward into parts of the
South Hills and Southeastern Highlands. An influx in moisture begins
on Sunday and will continue throughout the bulk of next week.
Showers and storms will increase in coverage on Sunday, but may stay
just below "scattered" criteria, but we will wait and see what Hi-
Res models show tomorrow. Storms are finally more likely to become
scattered Monday through at least Friday and are more likely to
finally produce a wetting rain.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...AMM