743
FXUS65 KPIH 062335
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
535 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy through tomorrow, with critical fire weather conditions
  and impacts to travel and boaters on American Falls Reservoir

- Isolated virga showers and mostly dry storms through the
 weekend.

- Better chance for widespread showers and storms Tuesday into
  Wednesday along with much cooler temperatures

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

As expected, a band of virga/sprinkles has developed and
continues to slide east this afternoon. We are also expected
isolated virga showers to develop across the central mountains
through the rest of the afternoon. The band, however, continues
to slide east through tonight with the potential for a few
thunderstorms. The HREF and REFS indicate a 10-50% chance of
gusts over 35 mph with gusts possibly reaching 45-50 mph.
Outside of storms, it will be breezy with gusts of 20-40 mph
possible across all of central and eastern Idaho. We MIGHT
briefly reach WIND ADVISORY criteria across the INL, but
certainly not enough of an impact to issue an advisory for this
afternoon. For tonight and Sunday, in terms of precipitation,
showers and even a few lightning strikes are possible across the
central mountains closer to the Montana border, eastern and
southeast highlands. We should see precipitation ending during
the afternoon as the low pivots away and a fairly substantial
dry slot moves into central and eastern Idaho. As the low moves
through, we will see wind ramp up overnight and through most of
tomorrow, with the strongest from sunrise through mid to late
afternoon. Gusts across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, central
mountains and eastern highlands, will be gusting 30-50 mph with
some higher gusts possible especially for the Snake Plain. We
went ahead and issued a WIND ADVISORY for the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley, up through Monida Pass and Island Park.

We should see a break Monday, with an increasing chance of
showers and storms midweek. What once looked like a slow moving
closed low across the area is trending toward a faster-moving
system. While showers and storms are still expected, it seems
the pattern remains more breezy and also temperatures NOT QUITE
AS COLD, although still BELOW AVERAGE by a few degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Expect winds to diminish overnight but again the main impact
will be winds on Sunday. By 12Z expect 20 to 25 knot sustained
speeds with gusts 30 to 35 knots at PIH, IDA and BYI. DIJ will
increase to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots by 18Z and SUN 15
gusting 25 knots after 18Z. Have vicinity showers at DIJ
overnight but low chances of showers occurring.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1232 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Isolated virga and thunderstorms are expected at some point
across most if not all of central and eastern Idaho through
Sunday. A band has developed, as expected, from near Monida Pass
southwest through the area of the Summit Creek Fire. This band
will continue to shift east through this evening. We are also
expecting a few showers and storms to move in from Utah. For
tonight and Sunday, light showers will continue across portions
of Zone 475 and 476 in the central mountains, Zone 411, and
areas of 413 closer to the Wyoming border. We cannot rule out a
few lightning strikes overnight as the models indicate a 10-15%
potential remaining in place. There is also a 10-50% possibility
of gusts over 35 mph and possibly 45-50 mph with any "shower"
or storm through the overnight hours. This should clear the
state by mid to late afternoon. The other issue Sunday will be
stronger wind gusts developing before sunrise and continuing
through most of the day, along with a substantial dry slot
moving through. Gusts of 30-50 mph, and possibly a bit higher
across the Snake Plain, are forecast for the Snake Plain (410),
Magic Valley (425), Zone 476 in the central mountains, the South
Hills and Albion Mountains (427), Zone 422 near the end of the
Wood River Valley, and Zone 411. Based on coordination, we are
upgrading to a RED FLAG WARNING for Zones 425 and 427. We should
see a break Monday, followed by an increasing chance of showers
(with wetting rains) and thunderstorms midweek.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ051>055-066-
067.
Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes/AMM