884
FXUS65 KPIH 030333
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
933 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next storm brings wind and a few showers and storms
  Wednesday and Thursday

- ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures expected most of the forecast
  period

- Forecast is trending drier for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A fairly calm day continues ahead of the next low coming through
the state tomorrow into Thursday. There is still an outside shot
of a shower (more likely virga/sprinkles) around Island Park and
Monida Pass. We will see impacts starting later tomorrow
afternoon with the next storm as it approaches. We will likely
see a lot of virga/sprinkles mid afternoon through tomorrow
night, although there is a chance of measurable rainfall
tomorrow night into Thursday across the central mountains and
along the Montana border. There is a low chance of
thunderstorms as well, and IF we do see lightning, it will be
mainly across the central mountains tomorrow afternoon through
sunset. That said, it is NON-ZERO elsewhere. There is a 10-30%
chance of gusts over 35 mph with anything convective that
develops. It looks like the main front arrives tomorrow evening
and quickly sweeps across the area tomorrow night. There is the
potential for a few showers and storms lingering along the
Montana border Thursday. The bigger story will be the wind.
Right now, we are borderline for WIND ADVISORY or LAKE WIND
ADVISORY criteria for the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, and
surrounding areas. The pattern turns breezy starting Friday
across the board. Trends for the weekend are slower and farther
north with the next low impacting central and eastern Idaho.
Right now, it looks like the initial low skirts by to the north
(similar to tomorrow) with any real potential for rainfall and
thunderstorm being across the central mountains, and along the
Montana/Wyoming borders. This trend also continues to point
toward a closed low developing offshore and slowly coming
onshore next week. There should me a minimal chance of any
showers or storms until potentially the middle of next week.
With the exception of Thursday and Sunday, highs return to the
70s and 80s for valley locations with some spots maybe pushing
90 next week. For Thursday and Sunday, highs for lower
elevations should remain in the 70s, perhaps touching 80 in
warmest locations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 927 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Outgoing trough has left no CIGs and no reduction in VSBY. Wind
is also no longer under the influence of the trough. However, a
trough arrives Wed afternoon and will increase the wind and
bring some clouds. Between 04/01Z and 04/03Z cirriform CIGs
should start to develop. There is a risk of SHRA at KBYI after
03/22Z due to this trough, which will provide a risk of TSRA in
the central Idaho mountains, though it should stay north of
Galena pass and not affect KSUN.

This leaves the only thing somewhat significant is the wind.
Gusty wind in the 03/21Z to 04/01Z time period should be at or
below 25KT, with direction from the southwest to west. Until
then, wind should be light and either variable or downslope in
direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Dry air work work into the region over the next couple days
although winds look relatively light. A weak system will pass
through Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday Night which could
produce some dry showers/thunderstorms.

There is some concern about borderline RED FLAG CONDITIONS
across Zone 427 tomorrow due to wind gusts and humidity and mid
and upper slopes. We are expecting gusts 25-35 mph with humidity
in the 10-20% range. After coordinating with the local fuels
expert and crews on the ground at the Summit Creek Fire, we will
NOT issue any headline at this point. Winds will be much
stronger tomorrow night and Thursday, but humidities will be
much higher.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...13