794
FXUS65 KPIH 181005
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
405 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm Sunday with 60s returning for some areas!

- Our next fast-moving, generally low-impact storm system is
  expected to bring rain and snow showers, along with breezy
  conditions, Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Dry and mostly clear/sunny conditions are expected today, with
afternoon high temperatures generally running about 50 to 60
degrees. Precipitation with our next approaching storm system
should hold off until mid- to late-morning Sunday across the
Central Mountain region, overspreading the rest of the forecast
area during the afternoon. A quick review of overnight guidance
suggests winds continue to trend slightly higher/breezier with
this system, but precipitation amounts instead of continuing to
trend drier have increased just a bit. More below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

We are expecting a quick hitting storm system Sunday and Sunday
night. For lower elevations, the bigger impacts may come from
wind. It isn`t looking strong enough for any type of headlines,
but certainly should be pretty gusty out there. The bulk of the
moisture falls in the Sawtooths and surrounding ranges, as well
as the eastern highlands. The latest precipitation totals add
quite a bit in the Sawtooths/Stanley area, and pushes amounts
into the 0.25-0.50" range. That is actually pushing the top end
of the probability forecasts from WPC and Blend of Models. For
the eastern highlands, we are looking at 0.15-0.40" officially.
The high end of the probability forecasts is double that, while
the low end shows barely a tenth of an inch along the Wyoming
border. Given how quickly this storm is moving through, we can
see where the official forecast comes down a bit, but still some
decent moisture headed our way. We are expecting a pretty
decent break until the end of next week. Our Blend of Models
wants to bring in precipitation Friday over western portions of
our forecast area, but it may indeed hold off until later in the
weekend. After seeing highs dip back down into the 50s where
most of the population lives, we will be back into the 60s ahead
of next weekend`s storm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 854 PM MDT Fri Oct 17 2025

No major changes in this round of TAFs. A weak shortwave passing
through the area late tonight/early tomorrow will bring some
flurries to northeastern Idaho, though it looks to stay out of our
TAF sites at this time and any increase in low stratus has about a
10 percent chance of working its way into IDA or DIJ with models
backing off on anything working farther down the Snake River Plain
towards PIH. Winds are expected to be lighter on Saturday,
especially as the day goes on.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Oct 18 2025

After dry and mostly clear/sunny conditions today with drier
afternoon humidity values, our next fast-moving storm system
will bring rain and snow showers across the region from Sunday
morning through Monday morning. Winds with this system continue
to trend slightly stronger for Sunday afternoon and Sunday
night, with many areas seeing gusts of 25 to 35 MPH (40 MPH over
the Arco Desert region). Meanwhile, precipitation amounts
instead of continuing to trend drier have increased just a bit,
with wetting rain/snow looking especially likely across Zone
475, northern Zone 422, and along the immediate WY border
corridor from Caribou County north into the Island Park region.
Dry weather returns from Monday afternoon through much of the
rest of the coming week behind this system.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM...Keyes
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...01