272
FXUS65 KPIH 281139
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
539 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry today and tomorrow.

- Cool again before warming slightly for Thursday.

- Looking like a wet, chilly Halloween/weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The weak shortwave passing through our area very early this morning
brought some light snow showers to parts of the Eastern Highlands.
Most of these showers will be wrapped up by sunrise and the rest of
today is expected to be dry as we transition from zonal flow to
southwesterly flow aloft. Highs today will be very similar to
yesterday, generally in the mid 40s to low 50s. Wind gusts today
will be around 25 mph across the Arco Desert/INL and around 15 to 20
mph elsewhere. The bulk of Thursday will also be dry as temperatures
warm just a few degrees into the low to mid 50s in most of the lower
elevations and winds stay mostly light.

By very late Thursday night or very early Friday morning, our next
system is just beginning to bring the start of some precipitation to
Eastern Idaho. An area of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific
Northwest will be just starting to pull in some Pacific moisture at
this time and it`s this low that moves inland during the weekend and
the overall deep troughing over the West that transports even more
Pacific moisture to our doorstep on Saturday and Sunday. The current
trend has been to decrease QPF on Friday, allowing temperatures to
stay "warm" for one more day before more organized showers arrive
for the weekend and bring a cool down. On Friday, the more limited
precipitation we do have around will likely favor parts of the
Central Mountains. The rest of the higher elevations get in on the
fun on Friday afternoon/evening before showers become more
widespread and steady Saturday into Sunday. While total QPF numbers
continue to change from model run to model run, there currently is
at least a 50-60 percent chance that all of our CWA sees at least a
quarter inch of precipitation from Saturday morning to Monday
morning and in some higher elevations especially the farther east you
go, those 48-hour totals may be closer to 0.75-1.00 of liquid
precipitation. Temperatures will also drop with highs on Sunday and
Monday being the low to mid 40s for most.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

So far, fog development has been very limited this morning.
However, we do have clouds very near MVFR CIG levels around BYI
and CIGs just on either side of VFR/MVFR levels at DIJ, so will
continue with the MVFR CIG TEMPO group for DIJ for the next few
hours. NBM shows about a 20 percent chance of MVFR CIGs at DIJ
through the first half of the day and a less than 10 percent of
MVFR CIGs developing at IDA, PIH, and BYI. Overall, VFR
conditions are expected to persist today and tomorrow as we
enter a dry period ahead of our Friday through Sunday system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 AM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dry conditions expected for today and tomorrow as we transition from
zonal flow to southwesterly flow aloft. This will warm us up a few
degrees, but min RHs will still be around 40-50 percent across the
whole area. Wind gusts today will be in the 15-25 mph range.
Precipitation returns to the forecast very early Friday morning for
the Central Mountains and then spread eastward and becomes more
widespread through the weekend. While total QPF numbers continue to
change from model run to model run, there currently is at least a 50-
60 percent chance that all of our CWA sees at least a quarter inch
of precipitation from Saturday morning to Monday morning and in some
higher elevations especially the farther east you go, those 48-hour
totals may be closer to 0.75-1.00 of liquid precipitation.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...AMM