305
FXUS65 KPIH 162022
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
222 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak low pressure brings a threat of precipitation and
thunderstorms to portions of the Central Mountains and along the
Divide this afternoon and evening.

- Slightly cooler for Tuesday, but much hotter by Thursday.

- Windy on Friday, then breezy and turning much cooler for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A shortwave trough is still expected to help develop mainly isolated
thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening
across portions of the Central Mountains and along the Divide. The
best chances will be across Custer, Lemhi, Clark and the northern
half of Fremont counties. Rainfall should be pretty light, and gusty
winds will be possible. There`s still a very low chance of seeing
some weak development across the Southern Highlands, but very few of
the high-res solutions are picking up on anything so believe more of
a virga/gust event than anything else, especially with the early day
cloud cover. Shortwave trough axis slides through tonight and early
tomorrow morning, so convection should be minimized Tuesday. A
slight dip in temperatures is forecast for Tuesday with highs
topping out in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Weak ridge of high pressure returns to East Idaho with temperatures
warming again through Thursday, which should be the hottest day of
the week. Expect temperatures to top out in the low to mid 90s for
many locations. The chances of exceeding 95 degrees have weakened
somewhat, with NBM now carrying a roughly 10-25% chance of reaching
or exceeding 95 Thursday. A deepening upper low approaches the PacNW
coast and begins to swing inland Friday. Winds increase for Friday,
and we should start to see some increased cloud cover, helping to
temper the hot temperatures slightly. The upper low shifts across
the region Saturday into Sunday, with continued breezy to windy
conditions, cooler temperatures, and an increased chance of showers
and thunderstorms. There is still enough variation in the ensembles
to lead to uncertainty in the amount of precipitation that may fall
over the region this weekend, and there is still quite a bit of
spread in potential temperatures. That said, the means continue to
pinpoint generally low to mid 70s for Saturday, and mid to upper 60s
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions forecast throughout the period. An approaching
shortwave trough will bring increasing mid and high clouds, as well
as breezy winds, sustained to around 10 kts with gusts 18 to 25 kts.
Have opted to refrain from any mention of showers at any
terminal as activity will remain far north, with the only
questionable terminal being KSUN. CAMs show isolated showers
remaining just north of there throughout the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An approaching shortwave trough will bring increasing mid and high
clouds, isolated to scattered storms across the northern extent of
the forecast area, and breezy winds to the Arco Desert and eastern
Magic Valley, where sustained winds will 15 to 20 mph with gusts 25
to 35 mph this afternoon. Minimum RH values will range 10 to 20
percent areawide but will increase with incoming moisture. Isolated
storms are forecast across Fire Weather Zones 475, 476, and the
northernmost portions of 422, 411, and 410. Chance of thunder ranges
10 to 40 percent in these areas this afternoon, with increasingly
greater chances further north. Stronger storms will be capable of
producing outflow winds to 45 mph and small hail. Shower and storm
impacts will continue to shift further east tomorrow as the trough
axis shifts directly overhead, with the highest probability of
thunder being across portions of FWZs 410 and 411 tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp