192
FXUS65 KPIH 040713
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
113 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers, storms, and much colder temperatures on tap for the
  weekend.

- Uncertainty headed into next week, but generally drier and
  slightly warmer into mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A low pressure system over northern Utah will travel through
southeast Idaho into western Wyoming today. Along that track is
where we will see the best chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms today along with the heaviest rainfall amounts.
Rainfall amounts today will most likely range from 0.50 to 1.00
inches across the eastern highlands, 0.25 to 0.50 inches across the
Snake Plain, and 0.10 inches or less for the Magic Valley and
central mountains today. Temperatures will be cooler today because
of cloud cover and rain. Highs in the Snake Plain and eastern Magic
Valley will be in the low to mid 50s while the eastern highlands
will have highs in the upper 40s to around 50.

The main storm system will pull away into the upper Midwest Saturday
Night but another weak front will move into the area from the
northwest and keep the threat for light rain showers going through
Saturday Night. The cloud cover and showers will probably keep
temperatures warm enough in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley from a
frost developing. However, communities in the mountains and
highlands could see freezing or near freezing temps by Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Upper trough lingers across Idaho into early next week. Showers
linger Sunday along with temperatures remaining cool across the
region, followed by a drier and more northwesterly flow into Monday.
Precipitation chances begin to drop off early in the week, but this
is likely when we`ll have to more seriously talk about freeze
headlines. Model means for Sunday night bring widespread
frost/freeze concerns to most lower elevation areas. Model means
currently support a combination of a Frost Advisory for portions of
the Magic Valley and a Freeze Warning for most of the rest of the
Snake Plain growing areas, and low-end estimates would raise the
potential for this early season cold snap being the first hard
freeze. We`ll have a couple more days to hone this in, but those
with agricultural concerns remaining into the early part of next
week should keep an eye on the forecast. A brief upper ridge rides
over East Idaho for the middle part of the week, allowing daytime
temperatures to begin to trend upward, but overnight lows remain
cool. Another Pacific trough deepens off the coast, strengthening
the southwest flow across Idaho late in the week and gradually
increasing the precipitation chances through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 850 PM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

A stronger push of moisture will be arriving in Eastern Idaho around
or just after midnight tonight. These showers and a few isolated
rumbles of thunder will increase in coverage overnight bringing MVFR
CIGs to most, if not all, of our TAF sites. Expect these showers to
continue on and off for the better part of Saturday with activity
tapering off from west to east late Saturday into Sunday. The wind
will be breezy in BYI with gusts around 25-30kts for most of
Saturday. Wind gusts will be a bit lighter elsewhere, closer to
20kts at PIH and IDA. While most impacts will come in the form of
MVFR CIGs, there is about a 30 percent chance of IFR VIS at DIJ
Saturday evening/night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Best chances for wetting rains today shifts into
east Idaho as a low pressure system moves through southeast Idaho
today. A weaker, secondary system will pass through the region
bringing another chance for light rain and high elevation snow on
Sunday. Drier weather returns for Monday and beyond. But cooler
temperatures and associated higher humidities are likely for the
next several days.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...AMM
FIRE WEATHER...13