111
FXUS65 KPIH 151801
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1201 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture remains in place through early next week for
  more showers and thunderstorms

- Some storms COULD produce decent downpours and gusty winds

- Temperatures SHOULD continue ABOVE AVERAGE but may fluctuate
  based on early day cloud cover

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

This pattern looks to stay heading all the way into next week.
We have a surge of deeper monsoon moisture moving through this
morning, but should shift east by this evening and actually be
storm-free through tomorrow morning. Today is one of those
instances where early day cloud cover may keep instability down
enough to where thunderstorm coverage remains isolated, with a
few pockets here and there (nothing widespread) of scattered or
higher coverage. Where we stay with more clouds and more
stable, expect lighter precipitation. Where we can maximize
stability and get some decent storms going this afternoon,
locally heavier rainfall is possible (more than 0.20" with any
given single storm). The risk of outflow winds over 35 mph is
lower, generally no higher than 30%. The next surge of monsoon
moisture arrives during the day, but the overall footprint shows
light precipitation, even with any stronger storms potentially
developing. This is also reflected in higher percentages for
gusts of 35-55 mph (20-60%), meaning the airmass is going to dry
enough to support wind vs heavier rainfall.

As the ridge shifts slightly back to the northwest heading into
the weekend, this pushes the deeper plume of monsoon moisture
back across Idaho. This means an increasing chance of measurable
and appreciable rainfall especially with any stronger storms
that can form. In reality, this pattern maintains itself into
the early part of next week. Temperatures will likely remain
ABOVE AVERAGE with temperatures in 80s and 90s. It will be
interesting to see if we see temperatures being held down in
the 80s on days where monsoon moisture (clouds and/or
precipitation) is more present. Even if temperatures are held in
check those days, ABOVE AVERAGE is still expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Monsoonal
moisture continues to bring BKN/OVC CIGs to IDA and DIJ for a
few more hours before we should begin to see some clearing. Not
expecting much precip chance today as hi-res models show a bit
of a break this evening and overnight. Still a low-end chance
for a stray shower/storm but not high enough to include
mention in the forecast. Things look to stay dry through the
period but some isolated precip chances will be possible just
beyond the current 18Z period into Thursday afternoon/evening.
Winds should be light, around 10 kts or less, through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Our monsoon pattern keeps hold over Idaho heading into next
week. We have a deeper surge moving through this morning,
shifting east of us by this evening. For today, thunderstorms
will likely remain isolated with a few pockets where scattered
coverage exists...but that is not looking to be widespread at
the moment. The chance of outflow winds over 35 mph is lower
today, nothing higher than 30%. On the flip side, like yesterday
we may see some spots with locally heavy downpours with over
0.20" with any given storm. The next surge of monsoon moisture
arrives during the day tomorrow, but looks "dry" enough for
lighter rainfall amounts even where we get thunderstorms to
develop. Tomorrow may be an interesting day due as lack of
earlier day cloud cover MAY produce more instability, and
increased lightning coverage across higher elevations. That will
be a trend that needs to be monitored for any potential critical
fire weather concerns. There is higher chance of gusts of 35-55
mph (20-60%) with even higher chances across southwest and far
western Idaho.

The ridge shift backs to the northwest a bit through the
weekend, pushing deeper monsoon moisture back across central and
eastern Idaho. This should bring a higher potential of wetting
rains areawide, with lightning coverage highly dependent on
where we get cloud breaks and better instability each day. This
overall pattern remains in place into next week, with some
expected shifting east or west of the main plume of moisture as
low pressure well to the northwest tries to nudge the ridge east
once again...even if briefly. Temperatures should remain ABOVE
AVERAGE in the 80s and 90s..

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes