617
FXUS65 KPIH 051913
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
113 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow into Sunday with
  virga or light rain possible

- Gusty winds expected throughout the weekend, strongest on
  Sunday with potential wind-related headlines

- Wetter next week as low pressure drifts across the area with
  BELOW AVERAGE temperatures starting Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A fairly quiet evening and Saturday morning on tap for central
and eastern Idaho, ahead of the next low crossing the state. By
We may see some virga develop late morning as some mid level
moisture begins to increase. By afternoon, the latest thunder
probabilities from the Blend of Models, REFS, and HREF indicate
the potential for isolated thunderstorms that will linger into
through around midnight. We included this in the forecast with
the expectation of virga/sprinkles and some gusty winds on top
of the expected overall wind. There is a 10-40% chance of gusts
over 35 mph with this development, potentially topping out
closer to 50 mph. By Sunday morning, a better chance of light
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will exist across most
of the central mountains, eastern and southeast highlands. We
should see any shower or thunderstorm activity out of eastern
Idaho by later Sunday evening. As this low approaches wind will
continue to increase. Gusts of 25-35 mph are expected across the
Arco Desert and into the central mountains through this
evening. Winds ramp up again tomorrow, with widespread gusts of
20-40 mph with some localized higher gusts. There will be a
smaller-sized area across the Arco Desert where we COULD meet
WIND ADVISORY criteria for a few hours, but not enough for us to
issue a headline for that. Sunday will have much stronger wind.
The strongest will likely occur early morning through the
afternoon. We currently have sustained winds of 30-40 mph
across the Magic Valley, Snake Plain, adjacent bench areas from
Burley to Rexburg and St. Anthony, and higher elevations of the
central mountains. Gusts of 30-50 mph are forecast at the
moment, with potentially locally higher gusts. We will continue
to evaluate this, but with current trends, we will likely need a
WIND ADVISORY for most if not all of the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley, perhaps extending into the South Hills and Albion
Mountains. Temperatures peak today, with valley temperatures in
the 50s and 60s by Sunday.

We see a break Monday before more showers and thunderstorms
arrive toward the middle of next week. Trends are showing the
low picking up speed and not sticking around as long, but the
idea is still there for more precipitation and cooler
temperatures. The Blend of Models still is forecasting highs
only in the 50s and 60s for midweek.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Widespread VFR this afternoon through Saturday morning. Winds
will be 10 to 15 knots this afternoon at PIH, IDA and DIJ. Will
have clear skies. Winds die down tonight. Expect a wind increase
last Saturday morning as a cold front approaches with 15 gusting
to 25 expected after 17Z at PIH, IDA and DIJ. Will see an
increase in mid and high level clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Weak high pressure over the area early this morning brings about a
quiet start to the day, but we will see increasing wind gusts again
this afternoon and dry conditions, though winds will be a bit
lighter than yesterday. As such, we will see NEAR CRITICAL fire
weather conditions with low min RHs and said breezy winds as
temperatures also increase this afternoon. A slow-moving cold front
begins to move into eastern Idaho late tonight and will bring even
stronger winds to the area for the weekend. It does appear some
virga and isolated dry thunderstorms are possible tomorrow
across most of central and eastern Idaho at some point through
tomorrow night, although we may luck out with nothing across the
western sides of Zone 425 and 427. There is 10-40% chance of
gusts over 35 mph with gusts potentially topping out closer to
50 mph with any type of convective showers or thunderstorms. By
Sunday, there is a better chance of showers and storms mainly
across the central mountains (475/476), eastern highlands (411),
and Zones 410 and 413 along and east of I-15. The main chance
of wetting rains should be confined to areas closer to the
Montana border in the central mountains. Elsewhere, a rather
strong dry slot arrives with stronger wind gusts with it. By mid
morning and lasting through the evening. We have widespread
gusts of 25-50 mph EXCEPT for Zone 475, the strongest gusts will
be across the Magic Valley (425), South Hills/Albion Mountains
(427), Snake Plain (410), Zone 411, Portions of Zone 422 and 476
in the central mountains, adjacent areas of Zone 413 to the
Snake Plain. Although the strongest winds will be a bit earlier
in the day, strong enough gusts when the humidity bottoms out,
we are expecting some areas with critical fire weather
conditions, especially where fuels continue to cure out. After
coordination with our fire partners, we have issued a FIRE
WEATHER WATCH for Sunday in Zones 425 and 427. Other areas could
see similar, but isolated conditions due to the wind speeds
themselves. It`s not until next Tuesday into Wednesday that we
see the potential for more widespread wetting rains as a
stronger system arrives.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for IDZ425-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes/AMM