016
FXUS65 KPIH 170935
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
235 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showery weather continues throughout the week with low
  confidence in timing and amount for any location.

- Cooler temperatures but still above climatic normals for the
  time of year through the period.

- Threat of precipitation will generally be less starting
  Tuesday and remain lower for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

Satellite this morning shows a dense cloud shield over much of
Southeast Idaho with coverage more scattered across north-central
Idaho as the upper low continues shifting eastward. Radar shows
ongoing organized precipitation generally east and south of a line
extending from Burley to Idaho Falls with showery precipitation in
the central mountains. Temperatures remain mild behind the front
with snow levels continuing to gradually lower to around 6,500k - 7k
feet through the morning hours, allowing for some snow to mix in at
higher elevations. The low will be to our east by later morning and
precipitation mostly concluded by early afternoon. A transient ridge
will shift through later today, keeping conditions mild and mostly
dry with only residual showery precipitation ongoing in the high
elevations of the central and eastern mountains. Locally gusty winds
will remain possible through the afternoon, with gusts generally
maxing out around 25 mph. Daytime highs today will run 5 to 10
degrees above climatological norms, warming into the upper 40s
to low 50s in the valleys and 30s and 40s in the mountains and
mid-elevations, respectively. Ample cloud cover will keep
overnight lows tonight more than 10 degrees above normal and
above freezing for the majority of Southeast Idaho. The upstream
split system in the Pacific will move onshore and begin
tracking inland today, with models showing one trough headed for
northern Idaho and the other tracking southeastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Recent troubles with model consistency and agreement in the
longer term continue today. The next system fully splits during
the day Tuesday with the southern low closing over southern
California, and the northern stream ejecting a small shortwave
through the PacNW for a continued chance of showers. There are
already significant model differences in how the systems evolve
through the remainder of the forecast, and quite a bit of model
spread for both precipitation and temperatures. The long range
ensemble means continue the trend of developing a deep split
flow across the western half of the US through the end of the
week. Clusters portray the northern stream north of the
US/Canada border with either a closed low or open trough near
the Four Corners and Southern Rockies or off the California
coast. In general both of these solutions should produce drier
conditions for East Idaho, but the NBM maintains weak
precipitation each period through Saturday. Additionally, NBM
means support daytime high temperatures remaining in the 40s
for the extended, but a stronger ridge could nudge highs back
into the lower to mid 50s based on the probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025

Only a few minor tweaks made to impacts and timing in the 06z TAF
package. One more round of organized precipitation is approaching
southeast Idaho from the south, and is forecast to transition across
KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ tonight into Monday morning. Cigs are still
expected to drop to MVFR at all three terminals (possibly borderline
IFR at KDIJ) which will linger into Monday afternoon after rain
ends. Temperature profiles will be VERY marginal for rain vs. snow
at KDIJ, and while most guidance holds dewpoints at or above 35
degrees supporting rain, evaporative cooling and melting processes
may be just enough to at least mix in snow, thus we carry -RASN with
a vsby hit to 3SM from 09-19z/2am-noon Monday. Even without snow,
upstream observations from Utah and Wyoming support vsbys dropping
to at least 4 SM under the steadier rainfall, while conditions may
hold a bit better at KPIH and KIDA as both terminals will be along
the western edge of the precip shield. Meanwhile, VCSH will end
tonight at KSUN and KBYI with generally VFR conditions. The region
will be quite moist tonight...hard to rule out patchy fog or mist
especially where there has been recent rainfall, but confidence is
too low to latch onto any additional impacts in the forecast at this
time. The HRRR favors KIDA, but winds potentially 10+kts casts doubt
on the efficacy of any fog formation, with perhaps low stratus
favored.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cropp
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...01