732
FXUS65 KPIH 270757
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night.
Little change in the short term with clear skies and very warm
temperatures expected through Saturday. Will see another warming
trend with warmer temperatures today as flow aloft turns more
southerly with upper ridge axis shifting east. Highs today will
range from the 70s mountains to lower to mid 80s in valleys.
Overnight lows tonight mainly 40s and 50s with some 30s mountain
valleys. Saturday will be extremely warm with many low elevation
high temperatures approaching 90 degrees with 70s and 80s
throughout southeast Idaho. Not expecting strong winds today or
Saturday.
GK

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.
It will remain extremely warm on Sunday but a cold front will move
through eastern Idaho and expect windy conditions in parts of the
Snake River Plain and Central Mountains behind the front with the
Arco Desert the windiest location. But 15 to 25 mph sustained
winds possible throughout the Snake Plain with gusts over 30 mph.
Highs will again be in the 70s mountains and 80s valleys.
Temperatures will drop substantially Monday behind the front with
highs in the 50s and 60s mountains and 60s to lower 70s in the
valleys. Overall it will remain dry through the long term period
with temperatures remaining above normal with perhaps another cold
front late next week. The next chance of precipitation will be
maybe late Friday into Saturday. But low confidence as operational
and ensemble models vary.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies will continue today with widespread VFR conditions
with light winds expected. It will continue on Saturday the clear
skies and light winds.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will stay on through Sun afternoon,
allowing a warm up that includes some low elevation temperatures in
the lower 90s by Sat. An upper level trough will then begin to move
onshore, bringing mainly higher wind and cooler air. The trough
passage now is definitely Sun night, with the very warm air
continuing through the weekend, then a large 15 to 20 deg F drop in
afternoon highs for Mon. There should be widespread afternoon
humidity readings on Sat of 15 percent or below, although mainly at
lower elevations. That area is reduced on Sun as the approaching low
and its westerly wind aloft brings in some higher humidity and
cooler air. Sun afternoon would be the likeliest Red Flag
conditions, mainly in the Salmon-Challis NF and in the Idaho Falls
BLM District. However, the SCNF is not critical, so the main concern
will be the Idaho Falls BLM. Starting Mon, temperatures will peak in
the 60s and 70s across the forecast area each day, making low
humidity unlikely. Another trough and surface cold front arrives Wed
or Thu of next week. This cold front also looks incredibly dry and
right now stronger than its Sun night predecessor.

Messick

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$