446
FXUS65 KPIH 211058
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
458 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight cooling expected today ahead of near normal to below
  normal temperatures on Wednesday.

- Monsoon moisture increasing with storms trending scattered
  through mid-week. Locally heavy downpours with outflow winds
  up to 50 mph possible.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures return late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Early morning radar shows showers with a few embedded lightning
strikes working through central and extreme southeast Idaho as
featured in CAMs. Southwest flow will continue to lift monsoonal
moisture into Southeast Idaho and support daily shower and
thunderstorm chances through mid to late week. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage will trend more scattered today with activity
continuing to lift northward and primarily being focused across the
central mountains and east/southeast highlands throughout the day
and afternoon. Today`s high temperatures will run several degrees
cooler than yesterday`s. A shortwave on Wednesday will result in
both increased convective activity and a noticeable cool down with
temperatures returning to around normal to slightly below normal
with widespread 80s across the low elevations. Storms will be
capable of locally heavy rainfall with outflow winds the strongest
today at 40 to 50 mph and closer to 35 to 45 mph on Wednesday.
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures return late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 458 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The current round of showers and thunderstorms will dissipate by
around 18z with the next batch shifting into Southeast Idaho during
the evening and overnight hours. Have included PROB30s everywhere
with the exception of KSUN, where less than 30 percent chance of
thunderstorms exists. Storms will be capable of outflow gusts 40 to
45 kts and heavy rainfall will be possible under the strongest
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Monsoon moisture will support daily shower and thunderstorm
chances through mid to late week. Storms will continue to trend
wetter and more scattered through Wednesday. Activity today
will favor Fire Weather Zones 413, 427, 475, and 476. Heading
into the nighttime hours and further into Wednesday, coverage
will shift further east and favor Zones 427, 425, 410, and 411
before scattered activity overspreads all Zones during the
afternoon. This will likely necessitate Red Flag Warnings due to
thunderstorm coverage. Storms will be capable of locally heavy
downpours with outflow winds the strongest today at 40 to 50
mph and closer to 35 to 45 mph on Wednesday. Temperatures will
run normal to below normal on Wednesday before dry conditions
and above normal temperatures return late week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp