934
FXUS65 KPIH 071828
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1228 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected through tomorrow evening
  with gusty winds and a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms

- Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon
  across the southern highlands along the Utah border due to
  thunderstorms, and potentially again Wednesday

- Drier weather returns for the second half of the week with hot
  conditions likely for the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are still expected across two main
areas through tonight. The first is currently ongoing and should
expand in coverage is south of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
The expectation is to see some seepage (likely outflow-related)
into the Magic Valley and Snake Plain around Pocatello and
Blackfoot. We will see a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with
this batch, along with a 50-90% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph.
There is a MARGINAL RISK in this area for strong winds. The
other area across the mountains from around Mackay through
Island Park. There is a 10-30% chance of gusts of 35-55 mph and
just a small chance of rain and thunder. There will likely be
outflow across other areas and MAYBE some thunderstorms
developing along those boundaries, but confidence in any one
location seeing that right now is too low to forecast. We will
This should last past midnight in some spots but pretty much
done by sunrise. Tomorrow`s round is likely a little more
widespread, but the two more concentrated areas will be in the
central mountains through Island Park and higher elevations
south of the Snake Plain. The potential for strong outflow winds
is very similar to tomorrow, but increased a bit overall due to
increased coverage.

Starting Thursday and through the weekend, dry and hot
conditions are still expected. Highs by the weekend, especially
Sunday will be in the mid 90s to low 100s. The highest end
range is still pushing hotter spots closer to 105, but that is
likely a combination of full sunshine and potentially ongoing
bias with the Blend of Models in more extreme heat events. It is
something worth watching however at this point. The trend is
still showing high pressure building in, BUT the center of the
ridge may stay far enough east to allow limited monsoon moisture
arriving by Monday, and deeper moisture toward the middle of
next week. At the moment, the Blend is forecasting this type of
trend starting Monday. There is still a fairly even split on
WHEN the deeper moisture might arrive, based on where the ridge
centers itself. Half (or close to half) keep it still far enough
west to hold off until mid-week, while the rest bring it in
as soon as Monday. Daily high temperatures in that type of
pattern will be highly dependent on the amount of clouds and
storms around each day. At the moment, temperatures will likely
stay in the 90s for the most part as a general trend. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Main concern is scattered thunderstorms this afternoon producing
strong, gusty erratic winds near TAF sites. Most sites will
carry at PROB30 this afternoon. SUN is the exception with most
models keeping convection south of them. There is a slight
chance that some showers could work in at SUN in the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected once again
this afternoon. Best chances are across the southern highlands
where red flag warnings are in effect. Gusty outflow winds are
likely near storms with the potential for up to 0.10 inches of
rain underneath the core of the storms.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ413-427.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Keyes
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...13