886
FXUS65 KPIH 020003
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
503 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and very high elevation snow showers through Monday.

- Above average temperatures Into early next week.

- Next system arrives mid week with unsettled conditions for the
  remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Light showers are moving through East Idaho this afternoon per
radar and satellite imagery. Showers are expected to continue
across the region through Monday as the upper trough shifts
through the northern Great Basin. Precipitation becomes a little
more widespread and slightly heavier during the day Monday as
the upper trough approaches. Snow levels remain 7500-8500 ft
across the region through Monday, slowing dropping late in the
day as the precipitation slowly shifts to the southeast into the
overnight. Total accumulations remain 4-6" above pass level,
with minor travel impacts at pass level.

A transitory ridge is forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Next system is still expected Wednesday into Thursday across the
region, bringing slightly higher precipitation totals to East
Idaho for mid week. Mild temperatures Wednesday keep snow levels
elevated above 6500 ft Wednesday, but as temperatures fall
Wednesday night into Thursday, we could see rain mix with snow
down to valley floors depending on timing of the precipitation.
Temperatures drop to more seasonable levels following the cold
front associated with this feature.

For the remainder of the forecast period, NBM maintains
unsettled conditions across East Idaho. General pattern looks to
be northwest flow with series of embedded shortwave features.
There are differences in the ensemble clusters with respect to
the amplification of the upper ridge off the California coast
and how the split flow develops into the central plains by the
weekend. Temperatures look to stay seasonable under this
pattern, which is still warm enough to support rain or rain/snow
mix at valleys for each system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 456 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

There is a brief break of precipitation for KBYI and KPIH right
now. Thus, BYI and PIH are currently VFR. IDA will see a brief
break in showers soon that will last for a few hours this
evening as well.

More showers are coming this evening for all TAF sites based on
high resolution models. Models are showing precipitation through
tomorrow morning and through much of tomorrow afternoon. Once
this area of precipitation moves in this evening, look for a
rapid drop to IFR conditions due to low ceilings and/or
visibility (especially if snow develops in areas where we are
closer 32-35 degrees). There is a 10-20% chance of going LIFR at
this point based on trends, especially for DIJ.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...TW