519
FXUS65 KPIH 302204
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
404 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk of thunderstorms diminishes tonight and Friday
afternoon/evening.

- Stronger wind Saturday and Sunday combines with very low  humidity
for Red Flag conditions likely.

- Saturday highs will challenge the century mark in lower elevations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

High pressure has strengthened after the weak trough passed through
last Wed afternoon/evening. A very unstable air mass over eastern
Idaho along with good amounts of moisture as evidenced by the
dewpoints above 50 deg F. This should trigger a penultimate round of
thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon and into the
evening tonight. However, a shift in the upper level wind to a more
westerly direction will cut off the supply of this unstable moist
air and by Sat the risk of any precipitation anywhere in the
forecast area drops to zero and stays that way through at least next
Thu.

Lack of clouds will allow hit temperatures to return by Sat, with
forecasts of at least the upper 90s for elevations below 5500ft and
some places exceeding 100 deg F on Sat. There is a slight cool down
on Sun as a dry cold front centered in western Canada moves through
eastern Idaho longitudes. The main effect will be to increase the
wind for Sat and Sun. This should mean critical fire weather issues
discussed below.

After the Canadian front departs the west, the upper level flow
continues out of the west and northwest. This means much drier air
and an end to thunderstorm activity. The cooling trend also
continues into Mon afternoon as even Snake River plain temperatures
only warm into the 80s. The west and northwest flow slows the
warming, but by Wed temperatures will be back above 90 for the lower
elevations. High pressure will keep wind light to with moderate
gusts in the afternoon possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered thunderstorms may impact TAF sites tonight with a 30%
probability. Gusty outflow winds and heavy downpours reducing
visibility are main impacts. Expect conditions to improve after
02/03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Monsoon moisture continues to be tough to fully push out of here, as
it now appears we may even see a few storms on Friday.
The overall chance is dwindling though as deeper moisture is on its
way out of here. The pattern today looks similar, spatially, as the
best chance of storms will be across higher terrain.
There will likely be some spillover into the Snake Plain along
outflow boundaries and stronger storms holding together. There is
some potential for some decent downpours, but it doesn`t appear as
widespread and likely as Wednesday. There is a 30-70% chance for
gusts over 35 mph today, peaking at 45-50 mph. Those chances are
even lower tomorrow, at 10-40% as coverage becomes more isolated.

Temperatures will continue to warm up, with highs peaking Saturday.
Valley temperatures will push 95-105, with mountain temperatures in
the 80s. Very dry air moves as the monsoon moisture shifts away from
us. We are expecting a classic breakdown of the ridge after a
prolonged period of southwest flow and monsoon driven thunderstorms.
This takes place Sunday, with strong westerly flow developing and
locking into place for next week. This will drop temperatures
initially early next week, BUT dry air remains in place. Winds will
be increasing for the Saturday-Monday timeframe, but remain elevated
beyond that.
Looking at the potential for Red Flag conditions, we will pushing
that today with borderline scattered thunderstorms across Zones 413
and 427. Coverage will be isolated tomorrow, so no issues expected
other than maybe holdovers. We will likely see critical fire weather
conditions across the central mountains, much of the Snake Plain and
across Zone 411 on Saturday. The potential spreads south into the
Magic Valley and pockets of Zones 413 and 427 on Sunday due to
strong winds and very low humidity. Critical to near-critical
conditions are possible almost daily next week.

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Air quality alerts continue for Custer and Butte Counties for
the next 24 hours due to proximity and ideal trajectory of smoke
from wildfires. Blaine, Lincoln, Minidoka, and Cassia County
advisories have been lifted.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening for IDZ410-422-425-475-476.
Air Quality Alert until 3 PM MDT Friday for IDZ052-067>074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...13
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes
AIR QUALITY...Messick