546
FXUS65 KPIH 120502
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1002 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warmer conditions through Wednesday

- Precipitation returns as early as Thursday

- Cool temperatures return Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Well above normal temperatures for mid November continue across
eastern Idaho with most locations in the 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon. Satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the
area with some mid/high level clouds occasionally across the
central mountains, along the Divide and towards the Yellowstone
area but most of the region is clear. This will change later
tonight and into tomorrow however as some mid/high level clouds
push into the area. This should allow overnight temps to remain
seasonably mild across our lower elevations with mid to upper
30s likely. Another mild afternoon is expected tomorrow with
lower elevation temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s, once again,
some 10-15 degrees above normal. Aside from the mid/high clouds
tomorrow, it appears to be another pleasant day with light winds
and no precip expected. Things change as we move into the
latter part of the week though.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Our mild weather begins to see changes arriving in the second
half of the week. Thursday will be our last mild day with highs
in the 50s to low 60s area wide, but winds will begin to pick
up and precipitation chances will increase as the day goes on.
Wind gusts on Thursday will be around 15 to 20 mph in the
valleys, but start to pick up to closer to 30 mph on ridge tops
and PoPs increasing to about 30 percent in the Sawtooths and
Central Mountains as early as Thursday afternoon. By Friday
morning, precip chances will increase to 50 to 80 percent area-
wide as we are influenced by troughing moving into Eastern
Idaho. The ECMWF actually shows us in between two lows (one in
Canada and the other off the coast of Baja California) by Friday
evening while the GFS shows the lows in slightly different
spots that would keep us drier than the ECMWF solution. The NBM
is certainly going the way of the ECMWF at this point. Both
models can agree on the passage of a cold front late Thursday,
dropping highs into the 40s and low 50s for Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday before a second cold front comes through around
Monday. Frontal passage will increase winds on Friday with gusts
ranging from 20 to 30 mph with gusts closer to 35 mph out
across the Arco Desert. With the Thursday into Friday
precipitation chance, snow levels remain elevated on Thursday
ahead of the cold front, still around 8500-9000 feet in the
Sawtooths and Central Mountains. It will fall to around
6000-6500 feet by Friday morning and snow levels look to remain
above valley floors at this time in the eastern Magic Valley and
Snake River Plain with the NBM showing a less than 10 percent
chance of a tenth of an inch of snow on Friday. Other snow
probabilities show about a 20 percent chance for two inches of
snow in Stanley on Friday and about a 30 percent chance for two
inches of snow on Emigration Pass. It will be above 7500 feet
where snow totals will be closer to 2 to 5 inches. Generally,
QPF down in the eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain will
range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 959 PM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

Will have no aviation impacts through Wednesday Evening. VFR
conditions continue with broken to overcast mid and high level
clouds in southwesterly flow aloft. Ceilings expected to be
above 12 thousand feet. Winds likely under 10 knots through
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...AMM
AVIATION...GK