208
FXUS65 KPIH 010414
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1014 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps continue through
  Labor Day.

- Dry pattern continues through most of next week.

- Thunderstorms may return to East Idaho by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Upper ridge extending north into East Idaho this afternoon per
satellite imagery. A few clouds have developed across the central
mountains, and some smoke still visible across the northern valleys
this afternoon. Latest high-resolution runs are quiet for this
afternoon, though there is still a hint at a potential sprinkle
across portions of the central mountains if a few cumulus could
reach peak development. Otherwise dry conditions are expected. Ridge
continues to amplify into Labor Day across the region, with dry
conditions continuing. The only other short term impact will be
smoke. Have painted patchy smoke across the region due to impacts
from wildfires across the Northwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Forecast conditions remain the same from previous runs. Ensembles
maintain strong ridge through the Great Basin and East Idaho for the
next several days. By midweek, there is still a non-zero chance of
seeing a stray thunderstorm or two across higher elevations. Chances
increase after Wednesday, and especially leading into the weekend as
moisture circles the high into the region and shortwaves ejecting
out of the Pacific low begin to weaken the ridge amplitude. Until
then, expect temperatures generally in the 80s for most lower
elevations, though models have peaked a little on Tuesday with some
lower 90s appearing in a few areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Clear skies with light winds expected over the next 24 hours. Winds
at SUN and DIJ will likely turn upvalley again tomorrow afternoon
while clouds will be very sparse the next few days. VFR to prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Mostly clear skies in place again this afternoon with a warmer,
drier pattern beginning to take hold over the region. Temperatures
will run slightly above normal through the week with precip chances
looking quite low for much of the week. Can`t rule out a very
isolated shower chance each day but chances look 10 percent or less.
RHs will get close, but stay above, critical levels through the
period with winds remaining light.

&&

.AIR QUALITY...
Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A ridge of high pressure will continue to build into East Idaho
through mid week, maintaining low level inversions and generally
light winds. Smoke filtering in from fires across the Northwest is
expected to continue to impact East Idaho, with localized visibility
restrictions especially at night, and hazy skies during the day as
the atmosphere becomes more mixed. Increased moisture is expected by
late week for increasing thunderstorm chances by the weekend.


&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Preston
FIRE WEATHER...McKaughan