264
FXUS65 KPIH 161946
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
146 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire conditions for parts of central and east Idaho
  Thursday afternoon.

- Warming trend into the weekend.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Weakly northwest/zonal flow in place over East Idaho for the
remainder of today, gradually turning more westerly into
Thursday. After a relatively cool day today, warming onset again
Thursday. Daytime highs return to low to mid 90s across most
lower elevations. Breezy winds in place across the Snake Plain
and portions of the central mountains. Moisture lingering across
northern UT/NV may be able to shift north into southern ID
Thursday afternoon. Blend maintains dry conditions, so have
added weak PoP below 15%, withholding mention of thunder at this
time.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Shortwave trough draped across the PacNW slowly amplifies and shifts
east across southern Canada through the weekend. Flow aloft turns
more southwest, allowing some moisture to shift north into East
Idaho for isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.
Moisture shifts east by Sunday, and drier conditions are expected
for the remainder of the forecast period. Temperatures remain in the
upper 80s or 90s for lower elevation areas, and winds will be
occasionally breezy mainly during the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1001 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure is back in place and will keep CIG/VSBY with just
a FEW cumulus and altocumulus, with a lot of time SKC. Wind
until Thu will be driven by slope-valley interaction, with some
gusty wind during the late afternoon. Stronger upper level flow
from the west will mean stronger, gustier wind for Thu.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Expect zonal flow until Fri afternoon when a trough approaches from
the west. Until then, expect warming and drying along with an
increase in instability and wind as upper level wind increases. On
Fri, the approaching trough will continue the increasing
instability, approaching rather high levels for the time of year
except in Fire Weather Zone 411. The instability will also mean
thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms should be mainly dry and stay
under the 25 percent coverage threshold for critical conditions.

Wind will continue breezy to windy and keeps the humidity and wind
gust thresholds very close to critical levels through the weekend.
The wind gust threshold is more likely to be reached. The main
forecast problem will be the afternoon humidity. Right now, the
humidity in the air is higher than usual for the time of year. This
will have to be monitored in case the atmosphere dries out to more
normal measurements.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...13