605
FXUS65 KPIH 240836
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
236 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Surging Heat & Heat Advisory Today: A building Four Corners
  ridge will push temperatures into the mid-to-upper 90s today
  through early next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect today
  for lower elevationsincluding the Snake Plain, Magic Valley,
  Arco Desert, Shoshone, and South Hills  where highs will
  reach 95F to 100F.

- Shift to Mixed Wet/Dry Storms: Isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms this afternoon across the entirety of the
  forecast area will be capable of gusty outflows ranging 40 to
  50 mph and small to moderate hail.

- Saturday Shortwave & Gusty Winds: A passing shortwave on
  Saturday will briefly elevate shower and thunderstorm chances
  while generating widespread wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. This
  could lead to Red Flag Conditions for parts of eastern Idaho.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Early morning radar shows several showers and thunderstorms working
northeastward through the CWA. Within a couple of hours, we should
see a break in activity ahead of the afternoon push. The latest CAMs
feature increased storm coverage this afternoon than previous runs.
Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer as they increase to
well-above normal again in the mid- to upper-90s across the low
elevations and 80s in the mid-elevations and mountain valleys. A
HEAT ADVISORY remains in effect today for many of our valley
locations, including the Snake River Plain, eastern Magic Valley,
Arco Desert, Shoshone region, and South Hills. Daytime temperature
will remain fairly stable through the entirety of the forecast
period. A shortwave on Saturday will bring increased chances for
showers and thunderstorms in an otherwise dry-leaning pattern. Winds
will also increase on Saturday with many areas expected to observe
30 to 40 mph gusts. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are
anticipated over the next couple of days whether it be for scattered
thunderstorms or the combination of low min RH and winds as we
continue to dry out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A shortwave will bring isolated to scattered convection to Southeast
Idaho this afternoon, along with wind gusts over 30 mph. Storms will
be capable of outflow winds 40 to 50 mph and heavy rainfall. Have
included PROB30s for all sites between 21z Friday and 02z
Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions over the next
couple of days will likely necessitate Red Flag Warnings on
Saturday. Humidity will continue to decrease into early next week
while winds increase over the next couple of days, along with
scattered convection accompanying a shortwave on Saturday.
Temperatures today will be noticeably warmer as they increase to
well-above normal again in the mid- to upper-90s across the low
elevations and 80s in the mid-elevations and mountain valleys.
Daytime temperature will remain fairly stable through the entirety
of the forecast period. The disturbance on Saturday will bring
scattered, wet and dry thunderstorms in an otherwise dry-leaning
pattern. Winds will also increase on Saturday to 30 to 40 mph gusts
across much of the area while min RH will span sub-20 percent across
all Fire Weather Zones aside from 411, 413, and 427.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this
evening for IDZ051>057.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cropp
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp