948
FXUS65 KPIH 050709
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
109 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers, a few thunderstorms, and much colder temperatures are
  on tap to round out the weekend.

- Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning expected for very cold
  temperatures Sunday night.

- Uncertainty headed into late next week, but generally drier
  with temperatures trending back to seasonal normals mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

A secondary trough of low pressure will pass through the region
today. Scattered showers will continue to pass through the area
although additional rainfall amounts will be around 0.10 inches or
less. The chances for seeing amounts closer to 0.25 inches are about
20%. Snow levels today will be sitting around 7000 feet with a
couple inches possible especially in the central mountains, although
impacts to roads look fairly minimal.

We expect to clear out tomorrow night with cold temperatures likely
across the region. There`s a 50 to 80 percent chance of temps less
than 33 degrees across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley by
Monday morning. So based on that, we will likely issue a freeze
warning for the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley. For our
mountain and highland communities, there`s a 60 to 90% chance that
temperatures will fall below 29 degrees. 28 degrees is considered a
killing freeze, so the next night or two will most likely end the
growing season in the mountains and highlands. The odds of seeing a
killing freeze for the eastern Magic Valley is less than 10% but for
the Snake Plain, its closer to about 40%, but the probabilities are
very erratic suggesting cold spots that will fall below 28.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Upper trough lingers into early next week but gives way to weak
ridging by Tuesday. Temperatures begin to rebound from the
weekend lows, but remain below normal. Next deep Pacific trough
takes shape off the PacNW coast, deepening southwest flow across
the state. A few model solutions want to pull Pacific energy
inland beginning as early as Wednesday night, but there is
better consensus on precipitation arriving for the weekend.
Temperatures gradually warm back up to near normal for the
latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Showers will predominately be south and east of the terminals as of
06z, although VCSH is forecast everywhere at least into the early
overnight hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Reductions
in CIGs and VIS to MVFR will be possible again Sunday, although less
widespread and persistent as showers trend much more isolated. Any
remaining showers will largely conclude by Sunday evening with the
greatest potential (up to 60% chance) for thunder being at KDIJ
between 20z and 03z Sunday afternoon/evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Another system will move through the area today
producing light showers with rainfall amounts likely to be around
0.10 inches or less. Colder but dry weather is likely for the next
few days with temps returning to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM MDT Monday for
IDZ051>055.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...13