024
FXUS65 KPIH 190407
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1007 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm on Thursday with continued gusty winds in the afternoon.

- Becoming very windy Friday along with increased chances of
  showers and thunderstorms mainly north. Chance of gusts
  exceeding 50 mph is over 70% across portions of East Idaho.

- Turning MUCH cooler for Saturday and Sunday, along with
  continued breezy to windy conditions. Showers and isolated
  thunderstorms continue across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Ridge of high pressure in place over East Idaho. Satellite imagery
shows generally clear skies over most of the region early this
afternoon. Could still some late afternoon build ups over higher
terrain, but dry conditions are expected to persist. Thursday still
expected to be the warmest day of the week with temperatures topping
out in the 90s for most lower elevation areas. Will continue to hold
off on Heat related headlines as overnight lows still dropping well
into the 50s, allowing for sufficient recovery. Some moisture begins
to creep into the region, so isolated showers/thunderstorms will be
possible generally close to the Montana border. Winds remain gusty
especially during the afternoon peak heating hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Deep upper low currently taking shape over the northeast Pacific is
still expected to shift toward the coast by early Friday and shift
inland for the weekend. First of two significant frontal boundaries
associated with this system drives through early in the day Friday.
Strong mixing along with increased surface gradient in the afternoon
should lead to windy conditions during the afternoon and evening.
NBM probabilities focus the strongest winds across the higher
elevations of the central mountains and southern highlands, and
across the Arco Desert. Each of these regions carry an NBM
probability of greater than 70% for gusts exceeding 50 mph. A few
locations could see gusts over 60 mph but that impact should be
localized. Assuming these values do not change within the next 24
hours, a Wind Advisory will likely be needed for at least the Arco
Desert region. Second frontal boundary drives through during the
late afternoon/early evening, keeping the winds going into the
evening. Temperatures Saturday drop SIGNIFICANTLY, some 20 degrees
cooler than Friday`s highs. Model spread on temperatures has closed
up as well, with Snake Plain highs ranging from low 60s at the 10th
percentile to upper 60s/lower 70s at the 90th percentile. Moisture
with this system still looks confined to northern portions of the
forecast area, with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
north of a line roughly from Sun Valley to Driggs. And yes, that
could mean some snow at mid-slope or higher north of that line,
generally no more than a couple inches above 7000 ft. The caveat to
the precipitation will be the track of the center of the low as it
moves across the region this weekend. A track slightly south of
where it is currently forecast could lead to increased precipitation
chances and cooler temperatures.

The low moves out Sunday night into Monday, allowing for a
weaker secondary trough to the west for early next week.
Southwest flow aloft should be drier and slightly warmer for the
beginning of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1004 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Will have continued VFR conditions through Thursday evening with
clear skies overnight and increasing high clouds Thursday
afternoon. Winds will increase Thursday afternoon to the
sustained 10 knot range at PIH, IDA, BYI and DIJ with some
gusts 15 to 20 mph. Generally good flying weather for the next
24 hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

High pressure will bring warming temperatures and drier conditions
today and Thursday, with widespread minimum RH values dropping into
the teens and even single digits come Thursday. Winds will be breezy
both afternoons, with gusts ranging 20 to 35 mph. Clouds will
increase Friday ahead of the next system, with daytime highs around
10 degrees cooler than earlier week. More drastic changes are in
store for the weekend as the upper low shifts inland, bringing much
cooler temperatures, strong winds, and higher RH values. The current
forecast for the weekend keeps much of Southeast Idaho dry with
precipitation remaining further north. Fire Weather Zones 475, 476,
422, the northern portion of 411, and the eastern portions of 410
will see at least isolated showers and thunderstorms during the
weekend timeframe.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...Cropp