820
FXUS65 KPIH 040520
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1020 PM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow returns this afternoon and lasts through Monday

- More opportunities for rain and snow well into next week along
  with cooler temperatures

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

Afternoon satellite imagery shows cloud cover on the increase
once again after a very brief period of mostly clear skies
across eastern Idaho. Our next surge of moisture is streaming in
across the northern Great Basin now and will bring widespread
precip to the area to finish out the weekend. The central
mountains will be the first to see precip, within a few hours,
with the rest of the area seeing the onset begin after sunset.
Hi-res CAMs show this round ending shortly after midnight with a
slight lull expected before a secondary surge pushes in around
sunrise and lingers for much of the day on Sunday. As has been
the case for much of this winter, snow levels remain rather high
and much of the snowfall accumulation will be at elevations
above 7000 ft. This will make for some tricky travel across some
of the higher mountain passes throughout eastern Idaho but
mountains valleys like Stanley and Sun Valley will likely only
see 3-6 inches over the next few days. Even though it`s a fairly
long duration snow event for the higher elevations, went ahead
and issued a Winter Weather Advisory to highlight the tricky
travel that is expected but most of the snow will certainly be
focused on the mountain passes and peaks. Lower elevations will
see mostly rain once again although snow levels do begin to drop
somewhat as we move into Sunday night and Monday AM which may
support perhaps a mix as we get into parts of the Snake Plain.
Temperatures will remain well above seasonal norms with
afternoon highs in the valleys today and tomorrow in the mid 40s
to lower 50s with overnight lows remaining near or above
freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

Active pattern is in place with good ensemble and cluster
agreement through most of the extended period. First trough
passage late this weekend drives weak cold front through on
Monday, followed by reinforcing system and second cold front on
Wednesday. Models are now continuing to swing shortwave energy
through Idaho Thursday into Friday before finally amplifying
ridge across the coast for the weekend. Daytime highs see a slow
slide throughout the week, slightly cooler each day, but remain
mild enough to continue to support mostly rain at lower
elevations. The second front looks cold enough to finally
support snow down to valley floors, but there is still a
question about timing of the front and cooler temperatures
coincident with lingering precipitation. Winds may also be a
concern with the Wednesday front, with wind speeds picking up
Tuesday through Wednesday, but as of yet remaining below
Advisory concerns. There are some questions late in the week
about the strength of the ridge building along the coast. One
cluster representing about 25% of the ensembles favors a
stronger ridge building along the coast while the remaining
clusters and grand ensemble are much shallower with the feature,
which should allow additional energy and continued weakly
unsettled conditions into East Idaho. The NBM maintains the
previous forecast trend of normal temperatures and weakly
unsettled conditions over higher terrain, decreasing
precipitation through Friday and beginning to rebuild the ridge
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1007 PM MST Sat Jan 3 2026

VFR conditions will gradually trend MVFR/IFR through the period. The
National Blend indicates approximately a 30% to 50% chance of MVFR
CIGs at KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ. There is only a 20% or less chance for
KBYI to observe MVFR CIGs, while KSUN stands a 30% to 50% chance of
IFR CIGs. Breezy winds are expected to continue this evening at KPIH
and KBYI, where gusts are currently ranging 20 to 30 kts. The other
terminals will generally remain under 12 kts. A brief lull in
precipitation will begin around 08z, with precipitation
overspreading the terminals again through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MST Monday for IDZ060-064-
072>074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp