571
FXUS65 KPIH 242022
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
222 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night.
Upper ridge continues with above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. A few afternoon build-ups present on satellite imagery
along the Montana border/Divide region, but moisture is limited
and any developing convection should remain north of the border.
Returning SW flow aloft allows for temperatures to rebound
slightly Tuesday, rising a few degrees above today. Winds remain
breezy during the afternoon under the influence of strong daytime
mixing. Approaching upper Pacific trough swings shortwave
northeast through Nevada late Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is
some potential for isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon near the Utah border, but overall confidence is still
low at this time. Better chances occur during the
evening/overnight shifting north from the Oakley/Burley/Raft River
region north across the central mountains after midnight, though
chances remain low/isolated at this time. DMH

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.
Mostly dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will
persist into next week as high pressure pushes daytime temperatures
10 to 15 degrees above climatological norms. Courtesy of an
approaching trough and departing ridge, upper-level flow will lift
moisture north over the ridge on Wednesday, with chances for
isolated showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday. The
Storm Prediction Center has included much of the CWA (excluding
the eastern Magic Valley) in a general risk of thunder, while
National Blend PoPs have only increased slightly into the 20 to 40
percent range for much of SE Idaho. Increased cloud cover will
help to keep daytime temperatures on Wednesday slightly lower than
the previous day`s, with widespread highs reaching into upper 80s
to low 90s across the Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley, as
well as low elevations further south, with 60s and 70s in the
mountains and low 80s in mountain valleys. Elevated upper-level
flow will support breezy surface conditions over the Snake Plain,
increasing further on Thursday as a cold front passes, bringing
advisory-level winds of 30 to 50 mph. Daytime highs will return to
within several degrees of normal for Thursday and Friday, but
these relatively cooler temperatures will be short-lived. Models
show high pressure rebounding on Saturday, with the NBM featuring
a ten degree increase in high temperatures between Friday and
Saturday ahead of an approaching trough early next week. Cropp


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions forecast with mostly clear skies and
dry conditions under high pressure. Elevated winds will be the
main impact, with SW sustained winds 15 to 25 kts and gusts 20 to
35 kts this afternoon. Clouds will begin filtering into SE Idaho
Tuesday night as an upper trough approaches. Cropp


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Seasonably hot temperatures and mostly dry
conditions will persist through tomorrow with daytime highs
continuing to run 10 to 15 degrees above normal and extensive
minimum humidities running 20 percent and lower. Winds will become
breezy to windy each afternoon over the Snake Plain, with
sustained winds reaching or exceeding 20 mph and gusts ranging 30
to 50 mph. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will arrive
Wednesday and Thursday as the next system approaches. A brief
reprieve will arrive Thursday through Friday, with temperatures
dropping back to within a few degrees of normal. However,
temperatures will trend warmer again for the weekend with high
pressure returning on Saturday. Cropp


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$