406
FXUS65 KPIH 141710
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1110 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through
  Saturday evening for the Wapiti Burn Scar and for this
  afternoon for the Big Rock Burn Scar.

- Unseasonably Cool and Unsettled Through Saturday: Waves of
  monsoonal moisture in southwesterly flow will keep
  temperatures well below normal with periodic widespread
  showers and embedded thunderstorms.

- Drying & Moderating Trend Next Week: A drier pattern takes
  hold Sunday into early next week. Daytime highs will recover
  into the lower 80s, though isolated afternoon pop-up storms
  remain possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Strong monsoon moisture remains in place across the area with
many locations showing dew points well into the 50s early this
morning. A weak shortwave will work through the area this
afternoon. This disturbance is not nearly as strong as the
system that worked through yesterday, but still enough to allow
numerous showers along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
to develop. The models are really keying on the mountains and
highlands for development today, but there will probably still
be at least some isolated to scattered activity across the Magic
Valley into the Snake River Plain this afternoon. Locally heavy
rain is a concern with these storms and we have targeted the
two burn scars that have the best chances for debris flows with
a proven track record...Wapiti and Big Rock. Most but not all of
the showers will dissipate with the loss of the daytime heating
this evening.

Another round of numerous showers with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms is expected Saturday as the remnants of the west coast
trough lift through our area. Models once again highlighting the
central mountains for the best precip chances. Activity looks more
scattered elsewhere as the pattern is starting to shift from
southwest to west and the circulations helping to drive convection
are closer to the mountains than east Idaho. Deep monsoon moisture
is still around so given the amount of storms expected Saturday
across the central mountains and the heavy rain threat, have
continued the flash flood watch for the Wapiti burn scar. Confidence
is lower in thunderstorm coverage for Big Rock at this time.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Sunday and Monday, but these should be mainly the heat of the day
variety pop up storms. Still plenty of moisture in place so
underneath the core of these storms will probably be some heavy
rain. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, a trough slides through
from the northwest. This may help with chances across the mountains
into the Island Park region. Looks like at least some slightly drier
air behind the front for late next week.

Temperatures expected to be well below normal once again today
because of the cloud cover and showers. Temps gradually warm up into
early next week, but may not approach normal until late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Have prob30 thunderstorms at all sites today through 02Z. Have a
tempo 18Z through 20Z at DIJ as an area of storms look to hit
them between noon and 1 pm. But the threat remains all afternoon
and early evening with any storm producing 30 to 45 knot wind
gusts. Some drying overnight with showers hanging around with
some vicinity in all the TAFs. Winds not strong outside of
thunderstorms mainly under 10 knots. Threat for showers and
storms remains Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible this
afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Best chances for wetting rains
are across the central mountains and eastern highlands this
afternoon. Good chances for wetting rains will continue across
the central mountains into Saturday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...GK
FIRE WEATHER...13