100
FXUS65 KPIH 130836
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
236 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Incoming low will trigger very windy conditions in portions of
  the Snake River plain today and the early evening.

- Low brings a slight chance of precipitation to the central
  Idaho mountains today and the upper Snake River highlands
  tonight.

- Low also brings moderate to strong cooling today and even more
  cooling from today to Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Today through Tue night...Closed upper level low will move
slowly through the ID panhandle today and reach north central MT
by Mon morning. This far south, only the extreme northern end
of the forecast area has any sort of risk for precipitation, and
near zero chance of thunderstorms. Once the low passes to the
east, dry westerly flow fills in behind it. A second low digs
along the US West coast, arriving at the OR-CA border at the end
of this period. This allows a weak ridge over the forecast area
with a shift to southwest flow. This will mean nearly clear
skies and zero chance of precipitation, with warming starting
Tue and continuing Wed.

The first low has a strong jet streak on the southern side of
the low that moves through the forecast area, supporting much
stronger wind at the surface. The wind is strong enough on the
northwest side of the Snake River plain to trigger a Wind
Advisory from late this morning to early evening. After this,
the gradient relaxes overnight and do not expect a repeat on
Mon.

Wed through Sat...The upper level low at the coast starts moving
inland, bring a chance for precipitation and thunderstorms on
Wed night through Thu night. This low brings another wind event
on Thu and Thu night. Another high moves in behind and keeps
conditions dry and warm through the end of the period.
Temperatures stay above normal through this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1037 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected during the period. Winds have
dropped off this evening and are expected to remain light
overall until early this morning.

Stronger winds are expected Sunday with a trough moving through
in the early morning. After 12Z expect winds of 10 to 15 knots
sustained with gusts 25 to 30 knots at the 4 of the 5 sites. The
wind increase is delayed until around 18Z at SUN. Not expecting
any cloud cover other than scattered to broken above 10
thousand feet. Winds start dropping off slightly by late
afternoon.

Winds will drop off even more by early evening tomorrow evening
Sunday. However, the winds will quickly ramp back up tomorrow
evening on Sunday with a weak, dry cold front moving through the
area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

A low moving through the panhandle and western MT today and
tonight will produce windy to very windy conditions today, but
fortunately this low also brings in cooler air and higher
humidity. The wind ends overnight and high pressure returns through
Wed afternoon. Wind will be much calmer Tue and a warming trend
develops under nearly clear skies. The next low arrives Wed
night, bringing wind, showers, and thunderstorms.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this evening
for IDZ052-067.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...Messick