180
FXUS65 KPIH 011124
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
424 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory continues until this afternoon for
  portions of the central Idaho mountains.

- Moderate rainfall amounts expected into the evening hours,
  then tapering off overnight and Monday morning.

- Cooling trend in temperatures continues today and tonight,
  then warming trend in the west on Monday, nearly all areas
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Today through Tue night...The upper level pattern has a trough
to the north over western WA this morning and a closed low over
northern CA, both in alignment longitudinally. By this
afternoon, this pair will be at the WA-ID border in the north
and over Las Vegas to the south. Weak upper level flow with
abundant moisture as it gets close should develop from this,
with moderate and locally heavy rainfall amounts, with snow
above 7500ft elevation during the day. By midnight, this trough-
low pair has exited the Gem State and a north wind develops
over the forecast area. This will shut off precipitation, save
for where the northerly to northwest surface wind can find an
upslope condition, such as in the eastern and southeastern
highlands.

Continued cloud cover will cool temperatures some more today
compared to Sat, then clearer skies in the west on Mon will
allow temperatures in the western areas to warm at least a
little. On the eastern side, temperatures will continue to cool
due to the cold air mass moving in due to the northerly wind. On
Tue, depending on fog formation, nearly all areas will see a
leveling off of the previous day`s warming or a warming trend.
Overnight lows plunge to the teens and 20s once the clouds are
gone on Tue night, except in the eastern Magic Valley where they
should hover around freezing.

Moderate to strong wind possible in the wake of the trough,
especially in the mountains on Mon and to a lesser extent in the
Snake River plain tonight.

Wed through Sat...Even late Tue night the individual
deterministic model runs differ on the timing of the next
trough, with the NAM already developing precipitation at the end
of the short term period above. But most have it returning to
the highlands that border UT and WY on Wed. Only one cluster of
9 percent of the ensemble runs have no upper level troughing
over Idaho. The upper level zonal pattern keeps the forecast
highly uncertain in timeing for Thu and Fri, while Sat in all
clusters appears to be dry. However, changeability in the
foreast is highest here in autumn. One thing that can be said is
that there are no major upper level troughs making an approach
to the US northwest coast during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

An ugly flying day for eastern and central Idaho. A WA state
trough is teaming up with a closed low moving through southern
NV to pump abundant moisture into all of southern Idaho during
the day today, and eastern Idaho well into the night. Widespread
marginal VFR will develop around 01/14Z or 15Z this morning,
with a high risk of IFR mostly due to VSBY but also at time CIG,
especially by afternoon/evening hours at KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ.
KSUN and KBYI risk more in the morning hours, approaching field
minima for both airdromes for VSBY, mainly due to BR and
moderate RA. Wind will get gusty at KBYI mostly with G30KT, but
even KIDA will be G25KT from the north as the wind shifts with
the movement of the surface front associated with this trough.
Even KSUN will have elevated NW wind by mid-evening tonight.
Some improvement will be seen late tonight at KBYI and KSUN in
terms of VSBY and CIG, but KDIJ may be a complete disaster
throughout the night due to moderate RA and accompanying BR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 AM MDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Humidity remains high with a low moving through during the
evening hours today. Moderate to locally heavy rain is likely.
Wind is fairly weak save for the southern Sawtooth NF. A shift
to northerly air flow late tonight keeps temperatures cool,
especially once skies fully clear for Tue/Tue night. Wed through
Fri continue unsettled, with weak impulses moving through a
westerly flow that could trigger light showers and bring windy
conditions. By Saturday, upper level ridging develops over Idaho
as a more substantial low approaches the west coast.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
IDZ073-074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Messick
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...Messick