967
FXUS65 KPIH 080344
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
944 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warning & Wind Advisory in place through this evening
  due to strong, gusty winds and very dry conditions.

- Better chance for widespread showers and storms Tuesday into
  Wednesday along with much cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Satellite imagery shows upper trough axis along western Idaho
border early this afternoon with deep dry slot across East
Idaho. Mid level moisture has largely pushed east into Wyoming,
but a few convective build ups remain. Winds have strengthened
through the Snake Plain, with gusts exceeding 50 mph in a few
locations. Thus will maintain WIND ADVISORY into the evening
across the region. Similarly, combination of gusty winds and
areas of low humidity remain so will also maintain RED FLAG
WARNING. Shortwave axis lifts northeast overnight tonight. Winds
decrease with sunset, and tonight should be cool but above any
concerns for frost or freeze. After a break on Monday with a
rebound in temperatures, the next Pacific shortwave pushes
inland. Showers could arrive as early as Monday night, but much
of the region should see at least some precipitation Tuesday
along with a few thunderstorms. Wetting rains of at least 0.10"
are expected for most higher elevation regions. Precipitation
continues mainly across the north and northeast into Wednesday.
NBM chances of a two-day total of 0.25" exceed 50 percent for
the Sawtooths, Frank Church, and most of the eastern highlands
north of Soda Springs to the Divide, though most of that total
should fall on Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to cool
slightly under the influence of the cloud cover and
precipitation, and breezy to windy conditions are expected both
days. Dry westerly flow is expected for the remainder of the
forecast period, with a warming trend and continued breezy
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 938 PM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Wind has weakened and will not return to the strength of
yesterday. However G25KT at KPIH and KBYI return Mon afternoon.
G20KT in downslope conditions at KSUN Mon afternoon. Otherwise,
after some light and variable wind in the morning, south to
northwest wind increases in the morning and peaks in the
afternoon.

An approaching trough does keep the CIG in the mid- to high
altitudes intermittently into the evening. After midnight, KSUN
appears to start getting marginal VFR due to SHRA at KSUN and
KDIJ while the three valley airports have a high likelihood of
some marginal VFR for CIG well after 09/06Z. VSBY should be
little impacted.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A RED FLAG WARNING continues for Fire Weather Zones 425 and 427
today due to very dry conditions (min RHs of 10-15%) and gusty winds
up to 40 mph. Outside of these two zones, we will see near critical
fire weather conditions with strong wind gusts up to 50 mph in zone
410 and gusts of 25 to 40 mph elsewhere. Min RHs outside of the Red
Flag Warning will range from 15 to 25 percent. Light returns are
visible on radar this morning as a cold front works through eastern
Idaho this morning though little to no actual liquid precipitation
is expected to reach the ground outside of some sprinkles. We should
see a break Monday, followed by an increasing chance of showers
(with wetting rains) and thunderstorms midweek.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...AMM