237
FXUS65 KPIH 311926
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
126 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers for parts of east Idaho today and into
  Monday.

- Chilly weather continues into Tuesday.

- Warmer and mainly dry for midweek and beyond.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Satellite imagery shows the rainmaker from yesterday has
shifted north into Montana, but there is a weak shortwave over
south central Oregon moving toward East Idaho. Radar shows
mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms northeast of a line
from Arco to Idaho Falls already early this afternoon. High-
resolution models continue to produce convection mainly
northeast of this line through the evening, with gust potential
around 40 mph. Additional precipitation amounts will be much
less than the totals seen yesterday, but stronger storms could
produce around 0.25". Convection ends mid-evening, leaving
overnight temps the next concern. Forecast overnight lows have
dropped about a degree or so from previous forecasts, especially
across the northern portions of the Snake Plain. This leaves a
FROST ADVISORY in play, but will hold off, as it appears that
the majority of the Mud Lake and Upper Snake Plain zones are at
or above the 36 degree threshold for issuance. Will hold off,
but outlying areas especially those that tend to run cold, could
briefly dip toward erring on the side of caution, and covering
tender gardens. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected Monday afternoon and evening as shortwave rotates
through the region through the base of the trough.

Temperatures rebound through the week, with Tuesday and
Wednesday continuing to look mostly dry. The next system looks
to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday with isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly north. Most of East
Idaho is expected to remain dry at this time. Breezy to locally
windy conditions will be possible Thursday as this system works
through.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

Showers will continue to shift further northeastward. VCSH at KIDA
will continue for the next few hours with VCSH continuing near KDIJ
throughout the afternoon along with a 30 to 40 percent chance of
thunderstorms between 21z and 01z. Otherwise, expect FEW to SCT high
clouds across much of the region throughout the period with breezy
winds persisting today at KPIH, KIDA, and KBYI with gusts ranging 20
to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

A low pressure system will slowly pull away from the area.
Light rain will continue for parts of central and east Idaho
today. Dry and breezy conditions will continue for south Idaho
today. Mostly dry weather with gradually warming temperatures is
expected areawide for the rest of the week.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DMH
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...13