695
FXUS65 KPIH 020746
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
146 AM MDT Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak cold front moves through Eastern Idaho, but mild
  temperatures continue.

- Better chance of precipitation returns toward the middle to
  end of next week.

- Did you remember to "fall back" this morning?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 143 AM MDT Sun Nov 2 2025

As is customary for our early morning satellite imagery this week,
another round of clouds are moving through Eastern Idaho. Radar
shows returns up to our north in Northern and Central Idaho so far,
but little to no activity has made it into our CWA just yet as the
cold front slowly sags southward. Precipitation with the cold front
will be very limited and generally confined to parts of the Central
Mountains and Eastern Highlands near Island Park, Driggs, and Victor
with only about a 20 to 30 percent chance. Though it`s closer to a
30 to 40 percent chance around the Stanley area. QPF is very limited
with this cold front and even where there is the better chance for
shower, we`re talking up to an inch of snow on our mountain tops as
snow levels are still around 9000 to 9500 feet early this morning
and won`t fall to closer to 6500 feet later this evening. Even with
the cold front coming through, highs this afternoon will still range
from mid 50s to low 60s for most. The wind will also pick up today
with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 mph. There`s about a 30 to 40
percent chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph from Idaho Falls
west to Arco and north to Challis, but out across the Arco Desert
area, that jumps to about a 60 to 70 percent chance. However, there
is only a 10 percent chance of gusts greater than 45 mph out across
the desert. Expect wind gusts to begin backing off after 6 PM this
evening. This cold front will drop our temps a bit for Monday
morning, but not too significantly as most will be in the upper 20s
to mid 30s to start the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Temperatures early next week will start off slightly warmer than
climatological averages. Snow levels over 8K feet on Tuesday will
drop to 6K-7K feet come Thursday as the first system arrives
and temperatures finally drop to right around or below normal.
PoPs enter the forecast late Monday, steadily increasing through
late week as two upper troughs shift through. Models show a
large degree of uncertainty and differences heading into the
weekend, with cluster solutions varying between high pressure
and low pressure in control. That said, confidence is very low
in forecast temperatures and chance of precipitation for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM MDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Main impact aviation wise will be increase in winds after 18Z on
Sunday with 10 to 20 knot sustained winds and gusts 20 to 30
knots behind a frontal passage. For now did not go with any
vicinity showers anywhere as think they will miss all TAF sites.
Only low chance sites are SUN and DIJ. Winds will die down after
02Z Sunday. Will remain VFR conditions with some mid level cloud
ceilings expected Sunday as system works through.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AMM
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...GK