309
FXUS65 KPIH 151855
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1255 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and
  thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana
  border on Monday.

- Breezy over Craters of the Moon and the Arco Desert.

- Windy on Friday, then turning much cooler for the upcoming
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

While tonight is expected to be quiet with the thunderstorm and
shower activity staying north in Montana, an approaching upper
level trough will bring a slight chance to chance level threat
to the northern half of the forecast area, as early as Mon
morning. Any showers or thunderstorms should disappear during
the early evening.

This low will have little effect on temperature, bringing things
slightly colder, on the order of 1 to 3 deg F. Wind will
increase, but only the Craters of the Moon NM and the Arco
Desert will see wind exceed even 15 mph, save for mountain
ridges.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Weak shortwave finishes traversing through East Idaho on Tuesday,
with mainly isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon for the
Island Park/Yellowstone region. Tuesday also still looks to be the
"coolest" day of the week with highs generally around 80 for most
lower elevation locations. Temperatures rebound for Wednesday and
Thursday, potentially reaching mid-90s for some areas Thursday,
mainly the Eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. Gusty winds
continue for each afternoon. The next system approaches the PacNW
coast Friday as a deep closed low just off the coast. Winds increase
across the region, and NBM means are already pushing Wind Advisory
for portions of the Upper Snake Plain Friday afternoon. As the low
is projected to swing across the region for the weekend, temps cool
off and we see increased chances for precipitation. There is still
quite a spread across precipitation chances and temperatures. The
ensemble clusters all agree on a trough for the weekend, varying in
depth and slightly in timing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Once again expect afternoon and early evening gusts to about 20kts.
Winds diminish this evening. VFR conditions are expected with SCT-
BKN high clouds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lemhi region this
afternoon. Areal coverage for isolated thunderstorms extends further
south into the central mountains and perhaps the southern highlands
Monday afternoon. Peak gusts this afternoon and Monday afternoon
will likely be 20 to 25 mph and minimum humidities in the teens to
low 20s.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Messick
LONG TERM...DMH
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...13